Demand recovery cement industry performance inflection point has arrived

Before the Spring Festival, the national cement market price rose, although there is not much volume, but reflects the confidence of companies in the industry as a whole. In the first quarter, the overall cement market was off-season. However, with the dual support of the cement sector in the early stages of sharp sell-offs and gradual stabilization of policies, it is possible to extend the “small step up” market before the holiday. The best time for the whole plate sector may be The first quarter.

Performance is at the peak stage In 2011, cement enterprises above designated size produced 2.063 billion tons of cement, which was 16.1% higher than the previous year. This is in line with previous expectations. Among them, 178.08 million tons of cement were produced in December, with an average daily output of 565 million tons, an increase of 7%. In 2011, the average cement price was higher than 10% in 2010, and the industry profits hit a record. In 2011, the average national high cement price per week reached RMB 409/ton, which was 10% higher than that in 2010. However, the trend was high and low before the end of the year. The price at the end of the year had dropped to the level of early October 2010 (RMB 380/ton).

Rising prices and sales volume have stimulated a sharp increase in industry profits. By the end of 2011, the total profit of the cement industry reached 100 billion yuan, and the profit per ton of cement was close to 50 yuan. Judging from the pre-addition announcements made by companies in the industry, the 2011 earnings are basically in line with expectations. Conch Cement's 2011 earnings increased by more than 80%, corresponding to EPS of approximately 2.10 yuan; in addition, Jiangxi Cement increased by 233%; Yatai Group increased by more than 50%; Tianshan Stock and Qingsong Construction increased by 110%-130% respectively. 52.5%; Tongli Cement in Henan Province also increased by 83%.

It can be seen that although cement prices are in a declining trend in 2011, large-scale infrastructure support has enabled cement companies' profitability to remain high. In the event that future demand growth is sluggish and prices continue to decline, the turning point in the performance of the cement industry has come. .

Demand will not shrink significantly With the introduction of the railway and affordable housing plans in 2012, cement demand has been confirmed to some extent. This year, it plans to start construction of 7 million sets of affordable housing and more than 5 million sets. Although the number of newly-opened housing projects has declined during the year, coupled with the number of unfinished housing projects that have continued in 2011, the number of affordable housing projects under construction in 2012 will reach the highest level in history, and the demand for cement from affordable housing will be guaranteed. Ministry of Railways Minister Sheng Guangzu disclosed at the national railway work conference that in 2012 China’s railways had fixed assets of 500 billion yuan***, of which 400 billion yuan was for capital construction and 6,366 kilometers for the new line; the railway infrastructure investment in 2011 is expected to be With 467 billion yuan, there will no longer be a significant decline in railway infrastructure investment in 2012. At this point, the two railways and social security houses with large uncertainties in cement demand were confirmed in 2012, and were basically in line with market expectations.

Under the premise of demand protection, the intensity of eliminating outdated production capacity of cement will increase this year, and it is expected that 120 million tons of production capacity will be eliminated in the whole year, and the elimination task in southern China and southwest China will be the heaviest. In the supply of differentiated market conditions, the adjustment of production capacity can better highlight the competitive advantages of some companies. For some companies, there are better market opportunities.

At the bottom, or since December 2011, there have been several major shareholder holdings in the cement sector, which has played a strong boosting role in market confidence. During the period, Shenwan Cement Manufacturing Index fell 1.62%, compared with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index. The excess return was 0.8%, and the kinetic energy of cement blocks continued to drop sharply was not enough. At the same time, major shareholders actively participated in the issuance of new shares to demonstrate their confidence in the prospects of the industry and the company.

Since 2011, due to the need for capacity expansion, nine cement listed companies have launched a issuance plan, in which Qingsong Jianhua, Chaodong, Jiangxi Cement, Tongli Cement and Sichuan Shuangma have not yet implemented, but the current share prices are mostly lower than Or close to the additional price. After a large-scale adjustment in the previous period, the premium rates of PE, PB, and PE in the cement sector are all at the bottom of the history. The premium rate of PB is at the historical center level. The tonnage of some companies is lower than the replacement cost and falls into the price range of industrial capital investment. Industrial capital holds a good grasp of the left investment point. According to historical experience, after the major shareholders increase their shares, the stock price may not necessarily rise immediately, but it can basically confirm that the mid-to-long term bottom will emerge. Under the guidance of valuation restoration, the cement sector may have better investment opportunities.

After significant adjustments in the previous period, the valuation of the cement sector has been at the bottom of history. At present, the overall PE of the cement plate is 10 times. The active intervention of industrial capital is also interpreted by the market as the signal at the bottom of the mid-to-long term. Judging from the performance of the secondary market in the near future, the kinetic energy of the cement slump continues to fall significantly. However, the market's pessimistic expectation of cement demand has suppressed the valuation of cement stocks, and the pace of policy relaxation has become a key factor in the layout of cement stocks. Sex opportunities need policy cooperation.

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