Nandu Futures: Inventories increase, Shanghai aluminum adjustment pressure increases

Last night, the nickel and lead in the LME market continued to hit new highs. The metal nickel market was higher by 30,600 US dollars and closed at 30,500 U.S. dollars, up by 400 U.S. dollars from the previous trading day. Lead continued to rise, and the venue closed at a higher price of 1,500 U.S. dollars, compared to the previous transaction. It rose 45 US dollars, or 3.05%. Metal tin is a species with a large increase rate last night. It broke the consolidation range of nearly a month, rose by 375 US dollars, and closed at 9450 U.S. dollars, an increase of 4.13%. The overall performance of the metal market was strong. Compared with the previous varieties, copper and aluminum were relatively weak, London copper trading period was lower to 7310 US dollars, regained some of the decline due to the strong influence of nickel and zinc, the venue closed at 7,490 US dollars, down 25 US dollars from the previous trading day; London's aluminum oscillation closed lower and the venue closed at $2,595, down $5 from the previous trading day.

Shanghai copper is still in a narrow range of high volatility today, while Shanghai aluminum prices have fallen. Shanghai copper closed at 70330 in November, closing 80 yuan higher than the previous day's settlement price; Shanghai copper closed at 69810 in December, closing 20 yuan higher than the previous day's settlement price. Shanghai copper remained light, with a total turnover of 17,000 contracts and a total holding of approximately 1,000 contracts. Shanghai Aluminum reportedly closed at 2,010 yuan in December, which was lower by 110 yuan compared with the previous day's settlement price. Today's monthly decline was greater, with spot prices falling by 230 yuan and 250 yuan respectively in November and November. Shanghai Aluminum's position was substantially reduced today, with a total holding of 5,200 contracts. Today, Shanghai Metal Net spot price, copper, up 30 yuan; aluminum, fell 210 yuan, 140 yuan premium copper premium 140 yuan, aluminum spot premium 120-150 yuan.

On the economic front, the Federal Reserve Board (FED) said on Thursday that the U.S. economy has continued to grow since the beginning of September, as four reserve districts reported that economic growth has grown stronger, while two reserve zones have pointed out that the economy has cooled down. According to the book, other reserve districts report that the economic growth is mild or mixed. The Beige Book contains reports from 12 Federal Reserve Banks. The newer report was compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The data collected was as of October 2 Before the day. China’s trade surplus in September was 15.3 billion U.S. dollars, which finally decreased after hitting record highs, but it still achieved a trade surplus for the twenty-ninth consecutive month. However, this also promoted a trade surplus of US$109.85 billion in the January-September period, surpassing the surplus for the entire year. China’s General Administration of Customs announced on Thursday that China’s exports in September totaled 91.64 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 30.6% year-on-year; total imports were 76.34 billion U.S. dollars, an annual increase of 22%. China’s total imports and exports in September each set a record high for a single month. The Cabinet Office of Japan stated in the relatively new October economic report that Japan’s economic recovery has been driven by domestic private demand and it is expected that this situation will continue. But at the same time, it is necessary to pay close attention to the trend of domestic oil prices and the development of foreign economies. The report implied that the Japanese economy, which is the second largest economy in the world, may enter a long period of growth since the end of World War II.

In terms of news, according to Reuters, “Trade information sources said on Friday that China has banned the import of refined copper and native aluminum used for duty-free processing trade. China’s trade practices stipulate that if copper product processors will export more than finished products, You can import refined copper and native aluminium tax-free. Trade sources estimate that 90% of China's refined copper was used for processing trade in the first nine months of the year."

Shanghai Futures Exchange announced today that the inventory data show that this week, Shanghai copper stocks increased by 2,546 tons to 36,100 tons; aluminum inventory increased by 20,720 tons, inventory total to 37,000 tons, a large increase since mid-February this year, of course, this During the National Day holiday, there was no certain relationship between the data in the middle of the week, and the increase in domestic inventory showed that the pulling effect of spot consumer demand on prices was weakening, while the LME aluminum price was also hampered at US$2,600. Although the domestic aluminum price was still far from high and low, , but the adjustment pressure is increasing. The change in refined copper processing policy is undoubtedly detrimental to the maintenance of copper prices at high levels, but copper stocks are still at a low level, with the cancellation of warrants as high as 12,700 tons, which still constitutes support for prices.

It is recommended to stay on the sidelines.

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