I. A brief review of China's machine tool market in 2006
In 2006, China's metal processing machine tool market continued to be booming. Although the growth rate of its main indicators slowed down compared with 2004, it was similar to the growth rate in 2005. Although the relevant data of the Chinese machine tool market has not been released in 2006, the author estimates the four major indicators of the Chinese machine tool market in 2006 based on some existing data: the machine tool output value is not less than 20% in the renminbi. In addition, the appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar is estimated to be 6.35 billion to 6.45 billion US dollars, an increase of 24.5% to 26.5% over the previous year; the import value of machine tools will increase by 10% year-on-year, and the import value may be 7.1 billion to 7.2 billion US dollars. Between the machine tool exports will maintain the same high growth rate of 40% or more as the previous two years, the amount may be between 1.1 billion and 1.2 billion US dollars; machine tool consumption (= machine tool output + machine tool imports - machine tool exports) according to The above data is calculated to be about $12.4 billion, an increase of about 15% over the previous year. The above estimates of the four major indicators of the machine tool market will be slightly biased, but in 2006 China's machine tool consumption and imports will certainly rank first in the world for five consecutive years.
In 2006, the market share of domestic machine tools increased by 2 to 3 percentage points over the previous year, rising to over 40%. In the same year, the demand structure (ie, consumption structure) of the Chinese machine tool market has been significantly upgraded. However, the output of more than 400,000 non-CNC gold-cutting machine tools (mostly ordinary gold-cutting machine tools) cannot be ignored.
Second, from the macroeconomic environment, the Chinese machine tool market in 2007
The ups and downs of the Chinese machine tool market fundamentally depend on the operation of the macro economy. In 2007, the state will further strengthen and improve macroeconomic regulation and control, emphasize the development of “good and fastâ€, and pay more attention to the quality of economic development. The economics sector predicts that the growth rate of GDP in 2007 will fall from 10.7% in 2006, probably at 10% or close to 10% (the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicts 9.6% to 10.1%, the World Bank predicts 9.6%), there will be no ups and downs, and the Chinese economy will continue to maintain a steady and rapid development momentum.
Machine tools are machines that make machines, and of course capital goods. The changes in market demand are directly related to the fixed assets investment of the military and civilian machinery industry. In 2007, the state will continue to strengthen the regulation of fixed asset investment, implement a sound fiscal policy and monetary policy, and control the growth rate of fixed asset investment to a moderate extent. In December 2006, the Blue Book published by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences predicted that the fixed asset investment of the whole society in 2007 was 1,375.24 billion yuan, with a nominal growth rate of 22% and a real growth rate of 20.4%. The growth rate was 5 times lower than the previous year. 4.4 percentage points. Other forecasts also believe that the growth rate will fall back from the previous year but may still maintain a growth rate of no less than 20%. At the same time, we must also see that under the guidance of the rapidly growing market environment of machinery industry production and sales and the country's policy of vigorously revitalizing the equipment manufacturing industry, the proportion of machinery industry in fixed asset investment has increased from 6.2% in 2004 to 2006. In October, 8.3%, this proportion may increase this year, so the decline in fixed asset investment growth in 2007 will have less impact on the machine tool market.
Foreign-invested enterprises, as investment-free imported equipment, have accounted for about 60% of China's machine tool imports, which is more than 30% of annual machine tool consumption. In the past two years, as China has emphasized the improvement of the quality and level of foreign capital utilization, and India, Vietnam and other countries have diverted some foreign capital, the growth rate of China's foreign direct investment has slowed down noticeably. From January to November 2006, the amount of contracted foreign investment in China increased by 0.15% year-on-year; the actual use of foreign investment was US$54.263 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.14%. In addition, China is gradually solving the problem of “super national treatment†for foreign-invested enterprises. The “two-in-one tax†corporate income tax law for domestic and foreign-funded enterprises is entering the legislative process, which may also have a slight impact on recent foreign direct investment. It is expected that China's foreign direct investment will have low growth or even zero growth in 2007, which is not conducive to further growth of machine tool imports.
In 2006, China’s export trade is expected to increase by more than 27%, and the foreign trade surplus has increased substantially. Although the world economic growth rate slowed slightly in 2007 (IMF forecast dropped by 0.2 percentage points compared with 2006), it is still in a relatively fast development stage. In 2007, China will regard the balance of payments as one of the main targets of macroeconomic regulation and control. It is expected that the growth rate of foreign trade exports will slow down compared with that in 2006, but it may still remain above 20%. The impact of growth estimates is minimal.
China's industrial structure and product structure are upgrading, and improving the level of technical equipment is the general trend. According to the above analysis, the macroeconomic environment in 2007 is generally conducive to maintaining the upward trend of the Chinese machine tool market, but it is also necessary to seriously consider the negative impact of the slowdown in fixed asset investment and foreign direct investment growth.
3. Looking at the Chinese machine tool market in 2007 from the trend of key user industries
1. Transportation equipment manufacturing
From January to November 2006, the industrial added value of the transportation equipment manufacturing industry ranked first in all industrial sectors in the country with a year-on-year increase of 23.2%. The automobile industry is the largest user industry of machine tools (about 30% to 50% of machine tool consumption). In 2006, the production and sales of automobiles exceeded 7 million. It is prudent to estimate that the production and sales of automobiles will increase by about 15% in 2007. The year will exceed 10 million mark. Inspired by the good market prospects, some auto companies are planning to further expand their capacity. In response to this situation, the recent Development and Reform Commission has strictly controlled the expansion of automobile production capacity and improved the investment access conditions for vehicles. However, based on various factors, in 2007, the automotive industry, especially the automotive parts manufacturing industry, still has a large demand for machine tools. The demand is focused on high-speed, high-efficiency and precision CNC machine tools and their complete production lines. Accuracy stability and reliability of use are very high. In addition, non-CNC-specific machine tools are also required.
The shipbuilding industry and railway transportation equipment manufacturing industry will continue to be two more active industries in the machine tool market in 2007. In 2010, China's shipbuilding output will increase its share of the world by 7 percentage points from 2005 to 25%, while the mainstream ship's localized equipment shipment rate will reach 60%. At present, the investment in the domestic shipbuilding industry is heating up rapidly. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, three large modern shipbuilding bases (the Bohai Bay, the Yangtze River estuary and the Pearl River estuary area) will be built, and the focus will be on the purchase of heavy and large CNC machine tools. Various machine tools. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, the railway will build a new line of 17,000 kilometers, and the train will continue to accelerate. The total investment in fixed assets will be 1.25 trillion yuan within five years, which will be used to promote the modernization of railway technology and equipment, and achieve speed as soon as possible. Localization of EMUs and AC transmission locomotives of 200 km and above. This will undoubtedly increase the technical reform of railway locomotives and turnkeys and other manufacturing companies, and purchase a variety of CNC machine tools, especially CNC special or specialized machine tools.
2. Traditional machinery manufacturing
The so-called traditional machinery manufacturing industry refers to the machinery industry that is now commonly referred to, and its statistical categories include the 13 major civil machinery industries mentioned above. In 2006, the gross output value and main income of the machinery industry will both exceed 5 trillion yuan (about 30% growth rate), and the profit may be between 2.7 and 300 billion yuan (30%-40% growth rate). . In the first half of 2006, the fixed assets investment of the machinery industry increased by 52.89% year-on-year. Although the growth rate of the whole year will be reduced, the investment is still quite active. In 2007, the economic operation of the machinery industry continued to be optimistic. The growth rate of its main economic indicators was estimated at around 20%. Moreover, the profitability of the machinery industry increased last year, and enterprises have more self-owned funds, plus the national revitalization equipment manufacturing industry. With the promotion of policy measures, it is expected that the machinery industry will invest more funds in technological transformation in 2007, and improving the level of processing equipment (mainly machine tools) is obviously the focus of its technological transformation investment, which will strongly support the upward development of China's machine tool market in 2007. .
The machinery industry contains many industries, and the required machine tools can be said to be comprehensive and multi-level. In terms of the amount, it is mainly based on the purchase of CNC machine tools of various grades, but the number is not the majority of non-CNC machine tools, especially private enterprises (accounting for nearly 40% of the main income of the machinery industry) will purchase quite a lot of ordinary and non-CNC Special machine tools.
3. Aerospace industry
In 2007, the aviation industry not only required mass production of regional passenger aircraft, helicopters, military aircraft and subcontracting production of trunk passenger aircraft components, but also large-scale aircraft has been included as a major special project in the national medium- and long-term science and technology planning. The space industry will launch the Shenzhou 7 spacecraft in 2007, and the development of the lunar exploration project and large-scale launch vehicles is intensifying. At present, the aerospace industry requires high-speed, high-efficiency, multi-axis linkage, precision and ultra-precision CNC machine tools, as well as heavy-duty (large) CNC machine tools such as the Longmen Bridge high-speed machining center. Of course, such equipment investment will not be limited to the aerospace industry, other military and civilian dual-use and military industries, will continue to purchase high-end CNC machine tools to improve their equipment.
4. Electronic information industry
In 2006, the sales revenue of China's electronic information industry was estimated to be 4.75 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%, and its industrial scale has now expanded greatly. Although the metal processing operations required by this industry are not as good as those in the machinery industry, the demand for CNC machine tools and other equipment for processing small precision molds and parts is increasing, becoming a customer group that cannot be ignored. In addition, the processing equipment for dry etching of semiconductor materials increased rapidly in 2006, which is also included in the machine tool category.
In 2006, the main user industry of the machine tool was in good economic operation. In 2007, it will basically continue this trend, not to mention that 2007 is the year of the “11th Five-Year Plan†key project, so it is expected that the user industry, especially the equipment. Manufacturing investment in machine tools will continue to grow.
Fourth, the forecast results
Despite the macroeconomic environment and investment trends of major user industries, the total size of China's machine tool market (ie, machine tool consumption) will continue to increase in 2007, but considering the slowdown in fixed asset investment growth and China's machine tool consumption A higher base has achieved a deceleration effect, which is not too high between 10% and 15%. In 2007, China's machine tool consumption may exceed $13.5 billion.
It is estimated that the market share of domestic machine tools will increase in 2007, and the rapid increase in machine tool exports will increase the feedback effect on machine tool production. Therefore, the growth rate of machine tool output in 2007 will exceed the growth rate of machine tool consumption. The renminbi is calculated to be between 15% and 20%, and will be higher in dollar terms.
In view of the continued slowdown in foreign direct investment growth and the gradual enhancement of market competitiveness of domestic machine tools (including products of foreign-funded enterprises), the growth rate of China's machine tool imports in 2007 will be lower than the growth rate of machine tool consumption, and may only have one digit. Growth is even zero growth, but most of it will still be at a high level of over $7 billion.
The export of Chinese machine tools is relatively scattered, and the slow appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar and the cooling of the US economy will not have much impact on this. Due to the improvement of the export structure of machine tools and the release of the "WTO" effect, it is expected that China's machine tool exports will grow at a higher rate of more than 25% in 2007, and the amount may exceed US$1.45 billion.
In 2007, China's machine tool market will contain more quality improvement factors. The production and sales of some models (such as electric machine tools) are shifting from rapid growth to leading performance and quality improvement. Calling for an optimized upgrade of the product structure. Generally speaking, the upgrading of the demand structure of China's machine tool market is based on the main line of numerical control, individualization and complete sets. In 2007, the numerical control rate of China's machine tool consumption will be more than 60%. In CNC machine tools, the machining center will be a faster-growing model in 2007. The demand for heavy (large) and special CNC machine tools and complete sets of projects is also Will continue to be strong. From the grade point of view, the proportion of high-end CNC machine tools will increase, but the mid-range CNC machine tools with the largest market share are still the focus of competition. This is not only the competition between domestic machine tools and imported machine tools, but also between domestic machine tool enterprises, especially between national enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises. In the competition, the role of brands has become more and more prominent and even become the first choice of many users.
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