Shanghai Medium Term: Metal R&D Perspective

Variety

Strategies

Analysis points

Precious metal

Long-term thinking

Yesterday, precious metals closed higher and London Silver hit a new high for more than five months. In the United States, data released by the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) on Tuesday showed that in March the confidence index of small businesses fell 0.3 points to 92.6, the lowest level in two years. Among the 10 subindexes of the index, there are 4 indexes. The U.S. government’s budget deficit in March was US$108 billion, which was about double the March 2015 figure. The IMF lowered its global economic growth forecast again, lowered its 2016 global economic growth forecast from 3.4% to 3.2%, and lowered its 2017 growth forecast from 3.6% to 3.5%, which is the second time the agency has lowered the global figure since last October. Expected economic growth. On the capital side, SPDR lightened up 2.67 tons to 815.14 tons, and SLV opened its position to 10455.48 tons. On the whole, global economic turmoil has boosted risk aversion, and the average system has been in a long row. It is recommended that long-term thinking be the main operation.

Copper (CU)

Take a wait-and-see.

Overnight LME copper reached 4,780 U.S. dollars, closing at 2.39%, Shanghai copper futures price at 36,730 yuan, closing at 2.37%, Renmin copper surfacing at 15 dollars per ton, expanding by 1.25 dollars from the previous day, and holding 146,450 tons of copper stocks, reducing 900 tons. Copper spot premium of 25 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day by 25 yuan, Shanghai copper registered warehouse receipts 168,373 tons, a decrease of 4,968 tons. The copper in the daily trading period was lightened up and the external market was positive. The black continued to push the rebound of industrial products. However, the fundamentals of copper remained weak.

Aluminum (AL)

Take a wait-and-see.

Overnight LME aluminum price $1536.5, closing up 2.13%, Shanghai aluminum futures price 11975 yuan, closing up 1.57%, London aluminum spot discount of 13.75 US dollars / ton, compared with the previous day contract 2.75 US dollars, London aluminum inventory 2735200 tons, down 7450 tons, Shanghai aluminum spot premium of 20 yuan / ton, compared with the previous day has risen, Shanghai aluminum registered warehouse receipt 20,086,861 tons, an increase of 545 tons. In terms of the goods market, today's Shanghai transactions are concentrated at 11780-11790 yuan per ton, which is flat against the current month of aluminum; the market is relatively abundant in terms of supply, and the downstream stable receipt of goods. At present, domestic aluminum social inventories have decreased by nearly 400,000 tons compared with the same period of last year, and the structural tight supply of the entire market has not been completely eliminated. According to market news, Xinjiang Jiarun Resources plans to start an annual production capacity of 150,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum project at the end of April and is expected to ship in June.

Zinc (ZN)

Can be lighter and more bargain-hunting.

Overnight LME zinc price of 1847 US dollars, closing up 5.03%, Shanghai zinc futures price 14775, closing up 4.75%, Lun zinc spot discount of 12 US dollars / ton, narrower than the previous day 0.5 US dollars, 423,725 tons of London zinc stocks, down 6025 tons , Shanghai zinc spot discount of 40 yuan / ton, narrower than the previous day 20 yuan, Shanghai zinc registered warehouse receipts 174,932 tons, down 149 tons. The smelters still have reluctance to sell their goods. Traders have signs of picking up the goods and the market's liquidity has been slightly tight. After the price of zinc fell to 14,000 yuan, the downstream supplemented stocks increased, and there was a marked decline in social stocks on Friday, indicating that the consumption end of the season still improved. In terms of industry, Peru's zinc production in February was 107,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.43%; its January output was reduced by about 11,000 tons, indicating that the trend of overseas zinc reduction continues. The prospect of tight zinc supply remains unchanged.

Nickel (NI)

Do more with dips.

Overnight LME Nickel 8865 US dollars, closing down 3.87%, Shanghai nickel price 69210, closing up 2.64%, London nickel spot discount of 35.5 US dollars / ton, compared with the previous day to expand 1 US dollar, London nickel stocks 428640 tons, an increase of 198 tons, Shanghai Nickel registered warehouse receipts were 74,693 tons, an increase of 1,355 tons. The European stainless steel plant Outokumpu recently released its 2015 annual report. The report estimates that the global stainless steel consumption will increase by about 3% annually during the two years. In 2016-2017, it will reach 38 million tons and 39.2 million tons, respectively, with an average annual growth rate of 3%. The inventory of nickel and iron in the port has been reduced. Nickel and iron prices have supported nickel prices for a short period of time. We can try to do more for wet storage.

Iron Ore (I)

Wait and see

The import ore market rose sharply and the transaction volume was active. The spot market price in the port went up. The high-quality powder ore resources in the Tianjin market were small, increasing by RMB 10-20/ton. The market sentiments in Tangshan and Shandong were better, with a significant increase. Among them, Tangshan was raised 10- 15 yuan / ton, Shandong rose 5-10 yuan / ton. Steel mill stocks have increased, steel mills have inquired actively and their mentality has improved. The price of the main producing areas in the domestic ore market was relatively stable, and prices in all regions were adjusted, but the rise and fall was modest. Yesterday, the main iron ore 1609 contract pulled up sharply, and continued to rebound in the afternoon to seal the daily limit, the overall performance was stronger, the period price exceeded the 20 day moving average pressure, the short-term performance is still expected to be in the excessive situation, concerned about rebound power, temporary wait and see is appropriate.