The pace of the aluminum market at home and abroad last week was quite consistent, that is, both markets fell sharply and rebounded slightly after gaining support. On the international market, aluminum is supported by the tight supply and demand in the long term and keeps rising. In the short term, it is fluctuating with the fluctuation of the US dollar. Aluminium last week crashed at 1860, and gained strong support at 1760-1780. It is expected that the market outlook will continue to rush to 1860-1880. In the domestic market, the current market focus is mainly on spot pressure and bad expectations caused by policy factors, and the market remains sluggish. However, with the advent of the Spring Festival, the shortage of railway transportation capacity and lower spot inventory may ease the pressure on the South China Sea spot, leaving little room for market downturn. In the international market, the focus of last week's speculation focused on inflation expectations, that is, whether the depreciation trend of the US dollar can still be maintained. Aluminium also oscillates as the dollar fluctuates. The manufacturing data released before Wednesday boosted the U.S. dollar. The ISM index and factory orders reflecting manufacturing data exceeded expectations, indicating that the strong U.S. manufacturing industry remains viable. In particular, U.S. defense orders are exceptionally prominent. In October, orders for military aircraft were large. It increased by 35.3% to US$3.26 billion, while it fell by 13.4% in September. The strength of the dollar caused the fund's sell-off, and Lum Alcoa continued to move lower after rising $1,860. The non-agricultural employment data on Friday hit the dollar a lot. The euro rose sharply against the US dollar again, and Lonawa rebounded sharply after it gained support in 1780. The United States’ non-farm payroll employment population increased by 112,000 in November, which is far below the market’s expected number of 180,000, which triggered a market sell-off against the US dollar. The euro rose sharply against the dollar to a record high of 1.346. See Figure 1. Non-farm payrolls data show that when the depreciation of the US dollar is still far from reaching its end, global inflation continues. The metal as an important safe-haven tool, especially aluminum that hasn't gained much, will be favored by the funds that use the US dollar as the local currency. The rise in London Aluminum has not ended yet. Although aluminum prices have continued to rise in the international market, domestic companies have enjoyed a long period of time. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, as of the third quarter of 2004, the profits of large-scale enterprises continued to decline, while the losses of SMEs were severe and the inventory growth was rapid. In addition to Chinalco's own production of alumina, the accumulated profits of the industry have fallen by nearly 30% year-on-year. As of the end of September, the accumulated inventory of the industry was 290,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 21%; the inventory backlog of funds was 5.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41%. The increase in inventory and backlog funds reflects a serious pattern of oversupply in the country. Once the spot price rises, it will face enormous pressure from the spot supply. In the long run, the trend of Shanghai aluminum will have a huge suppression effect. Even if the market rebounds, the space will not Great. In the short term, the spot market performance was relatively firm last week. Due to the low prices and tight capacity, the sellers reluctantly sold. Although trading is light, the South China Sea market price is concentrated between, slightly stronger than Shanghai aluminum. Since the average cost of electrolytic aluminum is basically between 16,000 and 16500 yuan per ton, the sales activity of sellers below 16,000 is not high; in addition, as the Spring Festival approaches and the railway transportation capacity is tight, it is difficult for the north supply to go south to Guangzhou, and the inventory of Nanhai aluminum is at a relatively low level. At present, it is only maintained at about 30,000 tons, and most spot dealers are still reluctant to sell at 16,000 or less. It is expected that there will be little room for a fall in the short term. In summary, with the continued depreciation of the US dollar and global inflation expectations, LME aluminum will continue to be favored by investment funds, and is expected to continue to rise; while the domestic oversupply situation is difficult to ease in the short term, the spot The long-term pressure on the market will continue and there will be little space for aluminum to rebound upwards; the pattern of external strength and weakness will continue. However, due to the impact of cost and tight capacity in the short term, the domestic market will be relatively resilient; overall, it is in a weak and volatile pattern. Weekly trading exchanges open higher low closing volume positions last week this week last week this week last week this week last week LME SHFE Note:1. Sampled as LME 3-month futures, Shanghai February 2005 contract; 2. Volume and open interest are all the total amount of all contracts; 3. London LME's open interest amounted to last Thursday's data, positions changed to last Thursday. Information on the previous Friday's data. Aluminium import and export and spot reference price import LME3 month + premium discount x exchange rate + VAT + tariff + transportation costs CIF South China Sea price 1809 2.5 8.28 x1.17 x1.05 export alumina CIF primary aluminum cost x1. 93 Domestic Processing Fee Processing Fee Tax Refund + Transportation Miscellaneous - VAT Export Cost / 8.28 LME Spot Month x 0.08 100 ÷ 1.17 1706 1811 Note: Export Calculation Formula: {Alumina CIFx1.93 + domestic processing fee x ( 1-0.08)] +100} ÷ 1.17 ÷ 8.28; do not calculate trade premium; Exchange stocks important news December 1 -: Dusseldorf, November 30th, the German aluminum industry group GDA said on Tuesday that Germany is currently The aluminum smelters are producing at full capacity, but the industry is under threat of higher electricity prices. A high-level person at GDA stated that at present, the German power supplier requires the aluminum smelter to “swiftly and substantially increase the price†during the negotiation of the power supply contract. He said that aluminum smelters will face near-double-digit growth in electricity prices, which will threaten the profitability of smelters. GDA and other metal industry organizations are negotiating with the German government about the country’s electricity market reforms. Currently, the country’s electricity supply is controlled by four major power suppliers. The GDA called for a shift in the regulatory form of the German electricity market to a mode of regulation similar to that of the telecommunications sector. The organization also hopes that electricity market operations will be more transparent, such as how the electricity is transmitted remotely from the supplier to the user's cost. Renewable aluminium producers in Germany are also concerned that Chinese importers may increase their procurement of scrap aluminum in the country. (Source: Mandarin Finance) December 3rd -: New York, December 2 news, the world's largest aluminum producer - Alcoa said on Thursday that the East Massena primary aluminium smelter in New York was slightly in November All capacity will be restarted early, and the West Massena smelter will restart its full production capacity by the end of the year. American Aluminum spokesman Kevin Lowery said, "All things are on track, one of them has restarted production capacity, and the other one is at least at the end of the year." He said that the East Massena smelter was fully operational in the previous week in November. West Massena plant will restart at the end of the year. The Massena smelter has a total operating capacity of 127,000 tons per year and East Massena has a capacity of 123,000 tons. Alcoa once stated at the end of August that it will use 3 months to complete its capacity restart, which means that it will be at the end of November. The company stated that in April 2003, it accounted for about 24% of the capacity of the two smelters in Massena, or about 60,000 tons of production capacity was idled. (Source: Reuters)
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