As a “barometer†of economic operation, the electricity consumption of the entire society in April was 416.5 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. This figure was significantly higher than the 2% increase in March, and will also use electricity from January to April. The year-on-year increase in the volume has increased to 4.9%, but it is still lower than the 6% growth in the same period of last year, which is a relatively low level in recent years.
Despite the increase in electricity consumption, the high coal inventory has not improved. From May 6 to May 12, the coal inventories of Qinhuangdao Port, Jingtang Port, Caofeidian Port, and Tianjin Port Bohai Port continued to increase slightly. As an important index of domestic domestic coal prices in major coastal areas, from April 24 to May 7, the comprehensive average price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region closed at 613 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 22%. This year has fallen by 20 yuan/ton.
Liu Zhipeng, manager of the research and development department of the Qinhuangdao Maritime Coal Trading Market, said that since the coal market has been sluggish this year, coal prices have been on the downward path. This is due to the slowdown in economic growth, lower electricity consumption, and high energy consumption industries such as steel and cement. The operating rate is obviously insufficient, and the coal demand is picking up; on the other hand, it is also related to excess capacity in the coal industry. In addition, imported low-priced coal also has a certain impact on the domestic coal market.
According to the data from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, the apparent consumption of domestic crude oil in the first quarter was approximately 120 million tons, which was a year-on-year decrease of 0.6 percentage points and a decrease of 2.9 percentage points from the fourth quarter of last year. Among them, the apparent consumption of diesel was 42.589 million tons, which was a year-on-year decrease of 0.2 percentage points and a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from the previous month.
Rising indicators show economic recovery
Lin Boqiang, director of the China Energy Economics Center at Xiamen University, said that in the case where the economy of the secondary industry is still relatively large, electricity consumption is closely related to economic operation.
“Generally speaking, electricity demand should be synchronized with economic growth. In the first four months of this year, the growth rate of electricity consumption is about 3 percentage points lower than the economic growth rate, which indicates that the economic growth is lower than expected. However, from the electricity consumption of a single month in April, 6.8 The increase in % shows that the economy has improved," he said.
Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 9.3% year-on-year in April, and rose by 0.4% from March. From January to April, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 9.4% year-on-year.
Affected by the rebound in industrial prosperity, coal, electricity and oil indicators have improved. China Electric Power Association predicts that in the last three quarters, as economic growth picks up modestly, the growth in demand for electricity will also pick up.
Zhong Yu, an analyst at Sang Yu, said that with the rise in the operating rate of infrastructure construction in March and April, and the start of spring plowing in May, diesel demand will enter the peak season.
The market agency Treasure Island monitored that thermal coal prices started to stabilize after entering the market in May, and the space for price fluctuations has been relatively small. However, the coal production area is mainly dominated by digested stocks. It is expected that coal stocks in the northern ports will increase slightly under the weak demand.
Release structural adjustment positive signals
Although the three indicators of coal, electricity and oil all show a slowdown in economic growth, but also revealed a positive signal of economic restructuring.
Niu Li pointed out that at this stage China's economy is shifting from high-speed growth to medium-speed and steady growth, and the slower increase in coal and oil energy consumption that is closely related to industrial manufacturing meets this trend.
The analysis of the China National Petroleum Institute of Economics and Technology pointed out that the demand for diesel in the south of China has been weak recently, while the demand for diesel in the north has recovered significantly. This is mainly due to the fact that some manufacturing industries are shifting from the southeast coast to the north and west. At the same time, the northern infrastructure is worse than the south, and infrastructure investment is more concentrated in the north.
Researchers pointed out that domestic oil consumption in the first quarter was weak, although it was related to seasonal factors such as the New Year's Day holiday, long-awaited busy season, and industrial production not fully developed. However, unprecedented bad haze weather this year has caused the society to pay close attention to the development of energy and oil and gas, and forced the total energy consumption to control, so that the rapid growth momentum of oil consumption has been contained to a certain extent, and it is also a factor that cannot be ignored.
Peng Quangang, chief analyst of China Merchants Securities's electric power environmental protection and public utilities, believes that from the perspective of the entire society's electricity consumption structure, the tertiary industry's electricity consumption maintains a relatively rapid growth rate. While the total amount of industrial electricity consumption grows, the growth rate slows down, accounting for overall use. The proportion of electricity decreased, which is similar to the economic development process of developed countries.
Lin Boqiang emphasized that the change in economic structure is a slow and relentless process. At this stage, it will not cause significant changes in the power structure. However, the rapid growth of electricity consumption in the tertiary industry means that economic restructuring is slowly advancing.
“Although the latest data shows that the economy has improved, but the economic recovery is still weak, still relying on policy-supported infrastructure construction and real estate that are closely related to the policy.†Niu Li said that China’s real economy is facing excess capacity and growth momentum. Inadequacies and other issues require that efforts be made to deepen reforms, activate the growth momentum of micro-subjects, and promote economic restructuring.
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