Who will lead the future world energy pattern?

The amount of global oil and gas resources may sooner or later become a topic of great concern to people. Recently, on the China Energy Strategy organized by the National Energy Administration and the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” energy development forum, Xu Jianshan, director of the Institute of Overseas Investment Environment of the China Petroleum Economic Research Institute, said that at present, the total global petroleum resources amount to 1.1 trillion yuan. Tons, of which conventional resources amounted to approximately 503.1 billion tons, can be mined for 70 to 80 years according to the current state of technology and production. The total natural gas resources amount to 1,420 trillion tons of cubic meters, and the conventional resources amount to 488 trillion tons of cubic meters. According to the current output, it can produce more than 150 years. It is estimated that by 2050, the amount of conventional oil recoverable resources will reach 600 billion tons, and the amount of conventional natural gas recoverable resources will reach 610 trillion cubic meters.

This set of data roughly describes the current situation of global oil and gas resources, but these are only measured by the current level of exploration. Will the global oil and gas resources remain unchanged in the future? What will change? What is the potential of global oil and gas resources? Many issues are yet to be explored.

The amount of resources is a variable. With the continuous deepening of exploration and development and continuous upgrading of technology, the value of the world's oil and gas recoverable resources will continue to increase. For example, in the North Sea oil and gas area, between 1985 and 2001, more than 25 oil discoveries were made, and a total of 2 billion barrels of reserves were discovered. With the continuous exploration and development of 57 old oil fields, the new oil reserves also reached 12 billion barrels.

Technological progress has a more pronounced effect on the degree of oil extraction. Xu Jianshan introduced that if the primary oil recovery is 100 million barrels, the recoverable volume through steam flooding will increase to 500 million barrels, and the recoverable volume through fracturing and infilling wells technology will increase to 1.2 billion barrels, which can be increased through steam flooding and infill well technology. To 2 billion barrels. At the same time, due to the low level of exploration, it also affects our understanding of global oil and gas resources to some extent. Xu Jianshan believes that global oil and gas resources should be viewed with a development perspective.

Due to the OPEC quota, the world’s remaining production capacity has increased. In 2010, the remaining crude oil production capacity was 6 million barrels per day, accounting for 5.5% of the world's oil consumption; non-OPEC is expected to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day, mainly from Azerbaijan, Russia and Brazil; LNG is expected to increase production by 600,000 barrels per day. . If the demand growth in 2010 is 1 million barrels/day, non-OPEC and LNG growth will be enough to meet the recent demand. Even if the economic recovery and demand growth are better than expected, OPEC will adopt measures to balance supply and demand.

Experts predict that the world’s conventional oil production is at a peak platform and is expected to last 25 to 50 years. The exploration and recovery of global oil and gas resources is still relatively low, with huge potential for exploration and exploitation. The amount of conventional or unrecovered conventional oil and gas resources is estimated to be 404.9 billion tons and 438 trillion cubic meters globally. According to the current total amount of oil and gas resources, the proven rate of global oil and natural gas resources is 62% and 52%, respectively, and the recovery rate is only 27% and 15%. It is estimated that under the condition of a resource volume of 503 billion tons, the world's conventional oil production will reach a peak around 2035, with a peak output of about 5 billion tons. Therefore, Xu Jianshan believes that the global oil and natural gas resources will continue to increase in the future, and the huge amount of oil and gas resources needs further exploration and development.

Oil prices are an important factor affecting the development of unconventional oil resources, of which oil sands are the most affected. This year, infrastructure costs and operating costs for oil sands projects have doubled, and increasingly stringent environmental protection requirements have increased the cost of unconventional oil development. Since unconventional oil and gas production costs are higher than conventional oil and gas, when the oil price is low, the cost impact does not have the value of large-scale exploitation. When the oil price rises to more than US$80/barrel, unconventional oil and gas resources and coal products projects can be invested in large-scale commercial development as an important supplement to conventional oil and gas resources. With oil prices rising above US$100/barrel, new energy and renewable energy will gradually replace oil and gas, becoming fuel for transportation, and oil and gas will become raw materials for chemical products.

Xu Jianshan believes that by 2050, the global demand for natural gas will increase rapidly, and the proportion of primary energy consumption will increase. It may be possible to surpass oil by around 2030 and become the world’s largest energy source.

HC HVAC network global oil and gas resources may sooner or later become a topic of great concern. Recently, on the China Energy Strategy organized by the National Energy Administration and the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” energy development forum, Xu Jianshan, director of the Institute of Overseas Investment Environment of the China Petroleum Economic Research Institute, said that at present, the total global petroleum resources amount to 1.1 trillion yuan. Tons, of which conventional resources amounted to approximately 503.1 billion tons, can be mined for 70 to 80 years according to the current state of technology and production. The total natural gas resources amount to 1,420 trillion tons of cubic meters, and the conventional resources amount to 488 trillion tons of cubic meters. According to the current output, it can produce more than 150 years. It is estimated that by 2050, the amount of conventional oil recoverable resources will reach 600 billion tons, and the amount of conventional natural gas recoverable resources will reach 610 trillion cubic meters.

This set of data roughly describes the current situation of global oil and gas resources, but these are only measured by the current level of exploration. Will the global oil and gas resources remain unchanged in the future? What will change? What is the potential of global oil and gas resources? Many issues are yet to be explored.

The amount of resources is a variable. With the continuous deepening of exploration and development and continuous upgrading of technology, the value of the world's oil and gas recoverable resources will continue to increase. For example, in the North Sea oil and gas area, between 1985 and 2001, more than 25 oil discoveries were made, and a total of 2 billion barrels of reserves were discovered. With the continuous exploration and development of 57 old oil fields, the new oil reserves also reached 12 billion barrels.

Technological progress has a more pronounced effect on the degree of oil extraction. Xu Jianshan introduced that if the primary oil recovery is 100 million barrels, the recoverable volume through steam flooding will increase to 500 million barrels, and the recoverable volume through fracturing and infilling wells technology will increase to 1.2 billion barrels, which can be increased through steam flooding and infill well technology. To 2 billion barrels. At the same time, due to the low level of exploration, it also affects our understanding of global oil and gas resources to some extent. Xu Jianshan believes that global oil and gas resources should be viewed with a development perspective.

Due to the OPEC quota, the world’s remaining production capacity has increased. In 2010, the remaining crude oil production capacity was 6 million barrels per day, accounting for 5.5% of the world's oil consumption; non-OPEC is expected to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day, mainly from Azerbaijan, Russia and Brazil; LNG is expected to increase production by 600,000 barrels per day. . If the demand growth in 2010 is 1 million barrels/day, non-OPEC and LNG growth will be enough to meet the recent demand. Even if the economic recovery and demand growth are better than expected, OPEC will adopt measures to balance supply and demand.

Experts predict that the world’s conventional oil production is at a peak platform and is expected to last 25 to 50 years. The exploration and recovery of global oil and gas resources is still relatively low, with huge potential for exploration and exploitation. The amount of conventional or unrecovered conventional oil and gas resources is estimated to be 404.9 billion tons and 438 trillion cubic meters globally. According to the current total amount of oil and gas resources, the proven rate of global oil and natural gas resources is 62% and 52%, respectively, and the recovery rate is only 27% and 15%. It is estimated that under the condition of a resource volume of 503 billion tons, the world's conventional oil production will reach a peak around 2035, with a peak output of about 5 billion tons. Therefore, Xu Jianshan believes that the global oil and natural gas resources will continue to increase in the future, and the huge amount of oil and gas resources needs further exploration and development.

Oil prices are an important factor affecting the development of unconventional oil resources, of which oil sands are the most affected. This year, infrastructure costs and operating costs for oil sands projects have doubled, and increasingly stringent environmental protection requirements have increased the cost of unconventional oil development. Since unconventional oil and gas production costs are higher than conventional oil and gas, when the oil price is low, the cost impact does not have the value of large-scale exploitation. When the oil price rises to more than US$80/barrel, unconventional oil and gas resources and coal products projects can be invested in large-scale commercial development as an important supplement to conventional oil and gas resources. With oil prices rising above US$100/barrel, new energy and renewable energy will gradually replace oil and gas, becoming fuel for transportation, and oil and gas will become raw materials for chemical products.

Xu Jianshan believes that by 2050, the global demand for natural gas will increase rapidly, and the proportion of primary energy consumption will increase, and it will probably surpass oil by around 2030 and become the world’s largest energy source.