Biodiesel Network Note: According to our observation, the biodiesel industry is currently in a state of hibernation, the price of raw materials is firm, and the transaction price of finished products continues to fall, resulting in the suspension of production of a large number of raw wood mills. Some enterprises are considering other ways; we still believe in the future. This trend is correct, but only temporarily entered a difficult period.
The international oil price reversal has reversed and chemical products have entered the winter. Yesterday, many star futures such as plastics, PP, and PTA fell across the board. Analysts believe that the price of crude oil will change from rising to falling, which will directly lower the production cost of downstream products. The key to the future of energy and chemical products is to look at the fluctuation trend of crude oil. In view of the continued decline after the rebound of crude oil, the pressure on energy and chemical products has not been reduced, and the future may continue to weaken.
Keep up with the trend of oil prices
The trend of energy and chemical products has always followed the trend of oil prices. This is because the price of chemicals is mainly determined by the upstream cost and the relationship between supply and demand. The change in crude oil prices has a guiding effect on the price of chemical products in the long run.
Over the past year or so, the continued decline in crude oil has overshadowed the impact of each commodity's own supply and demand. At present, the relevant futures products listed in China, such as fuel oil, PP, LLDPE, PVC, PTA and synthetic rubber, are all downstream products of crude oil. The sharp drop in crude oil prices directly lowers the production cost of downstream products, thus causing the market price of these products to fall. .
Recently, the international oil price has rebounded sharply after the end of the sharp rebound. On Monday, oil prices fell by nearly 4% as Russia reiterated that it would not cut production and ruled out an agreement with OPEC. Affected by this, chemical products in the domestic futures market have been hit hard. Yesterday, chemical products were almost completely wiped out. Among them, Dalian Plastics led the down market, the main contract of 1601 bottomed down, refreshing a new low of 8380 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.69%. Polypropylene 1601 contract yesterday hit 7800 yuan first-line failure, Tuesday gap open lower, empty hair force hit the strike price under the low walking, and finally closed at 7582 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.61%. PTA1601 contracted to dip in the night, then traded around 4,530 yuan, and then fell to 1.3% in the afternoon. The PVC1601 contract turned red in the afternoon and rose 0.1%. Zheng alcohol rushed to the end, but the overall price is still near the record low.
Overall trend or continued weakness
"After the rapid rise, it will slowly fall back. The principle of universal gravitation is still applicable to the current oil market." Some institutions said.
Last month, crude oil prices soared, rising nearly 30% in three trading days, and then oil prices retreated one-third of the above increase. Since then, the US crude oil benchmark price has been hovering at $46/barrel.
Due to the excessively strong momentum of oil prices in this round, many institutions believe that the rebound may be difficult to sustain. According to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the position of hedge fund short crude oil futures rose to its highest level since March.
"The short-lived rebound of this round shows that the fundamentals of crude oil have not changed, and the downward pressure on oil prices seems unlikely to be eliminated." The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its output of US crude oil this year after adjusting its data collection methods. Expectations, but a small decline in production has not changed the fact that global crude oil supply is abundant.
However, Zhou Wei, a senior analyst in the chemical industry of the business community, believes that considering the end of the down cycle, it will take some time for the chemical products to pass. In September, the chemical market as a whole will develop well, but it will require a certain buffer time. Under the traditional circumstances, the operating rate of downstream products will increase in September. The arrival of “Golden Nine†will have certain support for chemical products. It is expected that the overall performance of the chemical sector will be better in late September.
Jumping out of the commodity futures market to observe, business community price monitoring shows that in August 2015, the commodity prices rose in the list of chemicals in the chemical sector, a total of 27 kinds of commodities, of which 4 products increased by more than 5%, accounting for the sector being monitored The number of commodities was 3.4%; the top 3 commodities were aniline (9.71%), chloroform (7.56%) and caustic soda (6.72%). There were 87 kinds of commodities with a decrease in the chain ratio, 33 products with a drop of more than 5%, accounting for 28.4% of the monitored products in the sector; the top 3 products were liquid chlorine (-39.06%) and pure benzene (-22.88). %), crude benzene (-20.18%).
In the institutional research report that the reporter was exposed to, most of the chemicals continued to bearish. For example, Xinhu Futures believes that the overall atmosphere of short-term commodities has improved, unilaterally wait and see, and the medium and long-term Hujiao is difficult to change. Under the pressure of the appreciation of the US dollar, the depreciation of the major producing countries in Southeast Asia may open a new round of downside for the inner and outer rubber. Later, you can pay attention to the reverse position of the 1601-1605 contract.
PTA futures may be the only optimistic variety. "The short-term market trend is mainly based on oversold rebound, medium and long-term trend follows crude oil, and the operation is more inclined to deal with, and the 1601-1605 contract is being closed." Some institutional sources said.
The international oil price reversal has reversed and chemical products have entered the winter. Yesterday, many star futures such as plastics, PP, and PTA fell across the board. Analysts believe that the price of crude oil will change from rising to falling, which will directly lower the production cost of downstream products. The key to the future of energy and chemical products is to look at the fluctuation trend of crude oil. In view of the continued decline after the rebound of crude oil, the pressure on energy and chemical products has not been reduced, and the future may continue to weaken.
Keep up with the trend of oil prices
The trend of energy and chemical products has always followed the trend of oil prices. This is because the price of chemicals is mainly determined by the upstream cost and the relationship between supply and demand. The change in crude oil prices has a guiding effect on the price of chemical products in the long run.
Over the past year or so, the continued decline in crude oil has overshadowed the impact of each commodity's own supply and demand. At present, the relevant futures products listed in China, such as fuel oil, PP, LLDPE, PVC, PTA and synthetic rubber, are all downstream products of crude oil. The sharp drop in crude oil prices directly lowers the production cost of downstream products, thus causing the market price of these products to fall. .
Recently, the international oil price has rebounded sharply after the end of the sharp rebound. On Monday, oil prices fell by nearly 4% as Russia reiterated that it would not cut production and ruled out an agreement with OPEC. Affected by this, chemical products in the domestic futures market have been hit hard. Yesterday, chemical products were almost completely wiped out. Among them, Dalian Plastics led the down market, the main contract of 1601 bottomed down, refreshing a new low of 8380 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.69%. Polypropylene 1601 contract yesterday hit 7800 yuan first-line failure, Tuesday gap open lower, empty hair force hit the strike price under the low walking, and finally closed at 7582 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.61%. PTA1601 contracted to dip in the night, then traded around 4,530 yuan, and then fell to 1.3% in the afternoon. The PVC1601 contract turned red in the afternoon and rose 0.1%. Zheng alcohol rushed to the end, but the overall price is still near the record low.
Overall trend or continued weakness
"After the rapid rise, it will slowly fall back. The principle of universal gravitation is still applicable to the current oil market." Some institutions said.
Last month, crude oil prices soared, rising nearly 30% in three trading days, and then oil prices retreated one-third of the above increase. Since then, the US crude oil benchmark price has been hovering at $46/barrel.
Due to the excessively strong momentum of oil prices in this round, many institutions believe that the rebound may be difficult to sustain. According to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the position of hedge fund short crude oil futures rose to its highest level since March.
"The short-lived rebound of this round shows that the fundamentals of crude oil have not changed, and the downward pressure on oil prices seems unlikely to be eliminated." The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its output of US crude oil this year after adjusting its data collection methods. Expectations, but a small decline in production has not changed the fact that global crude oil supply is abundant.
However, Zhou Wei, a senior analyst in the chemical industry of the business community, believes that considering the end of the down cycle, it will take some time for the chemical products to pass. In September, the chemical market as a whole will develop well, but it will require a certain buffer time. Under the traditional circumstances, the operating rate of downstream products will increase in September. The arrival of “Golden Nine†will have certain support for chemical products. It is expected that the overall performance of the chemical sector will be better in late September.
Jumping out of the commodity futures market to observe, business community price monitoring shows that in August 2015, the commodity prices rose in the list of chemicals in the chemical sector, a total of 27 kinds of commodities, of which 4 products increased by more than 5%, accounting for the sector being monitored The number of commodities was 3.4%; the top 3 commodities were aniline (9.71%), chloroform (7.56%) and caustic soda (6.72%). There were 87 kinds of commodities with a decrease in the chain ratio, 33 products with a drop of more than 5%, accounting for 28.4% of the monitored products in the sector; the top 3 products were liquid chlorine (-39.06%) and pure benzene (-22.88). %), crude benzene (-20.18%).
In the institutional research report that the reporter was exposed to, most of the chemicals continued to bearish. For example, Xinhu Futures believes that the overall atmosphere of short-term commodities has improved, unilaterally wait and see, and the medium and long-term Hujiao is difficult to change. Under the pressure of the appreciation of the US dollar, the depreciation of the major producing countries in Southeast Asia may open a new round of downside for the inner and outer rubber. Later, you can pay attention to the reverse position of the 1601-1605 contract.
PTA futures may be the only optimistic variety. "The short-term market trend is mainly based on oversold rebound, medium and long-term trend follows crude oil, and the operation is more inclined to deal with, and the 1601-1605 contract is being closed." Some institutional sources said.
Motorcycle Parts ,Motorcycle Accessories,Motorcycle Spare Parts,Motorbike Parts
NINGBO DEMY (D&M) BEARINGS CO.,LTD , https://www.demybmtbearing.com