Abstract The central high-level has not mentioned real estate frequently as it is now. On November 10th, Xi Jinping presided over the eleventh meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Leading Group, proposing to resolve real estate inventories and promote the sustainable and healthy development of real estate. This is the first time Xi Jinping has been...
The central high-level has not mentioned real estate as frequently as it is now. On November 10th, Xi Jinping presided over the eleventh meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Leading Group, proposing to resolve real estate inventories and promote the sustainable and healthy development of real estate. This is the first time that Xi Jinping has expressed his position on real estate stocks since the 18th National Congress. Immediately after the second day, Li Keqiang presided over the State Council executive meeting, which also proposed to accelerate the reform of the household registration system and promote consumption of housing and household appliances. Behind the central intensive voice, does it mean that the real estate policy adjustment window has been opened? The real estate market situation, especially the backlog of inventory, what kind of barrier has it arrived? On November 12th, the interface journalist saw Ren Zhiqiang at the annual meeting of real estate finance jointly organized by Minsheng Bank and Quanlian Real Estate Chamber of Commerce. At this critical point, Ren Zhiqiang delivered a speech entitled "Risk Management of Real Estate."
Ren Zhiqiang, who is used to the truth, how do you view the current situation? The interface news compiled the following 15 dry goods according to the recording, without the party reviewing:
1. Whether the central government will implement some specific measures, but I don’t know, but at least it reminds us that we should reconsider the real estate market. Real estate has always been a pillar industry of the Chinese economy, with no exceptions. The economic fluctuations since the founding of the People's Republic of China depended on infrastructure construction, or industries related to real estate.
2. The amount of infrastructure investment this year has declined. The local government has no money. The central government plans to allocate one or two trillion yuan to the local government. The reason is that the local government cannot get the matching money. If you can't get 30% or 50% of the matching funds, you won't be able to spend the central bank.
3. The financial support of local governments depends entirely on taxes, fees and land transfer fees, so the real estate market is used. The developer’s land acquisition has experienced negative growth for two consecutive years. Recently, it has appeared more than -33% for two consecutive months. At the highest time, the annual land sales revenue is more than 4 trillion yuan, and this year it is estimated to be less than 3 trillion, 25%-30%. Except for several core cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. More land in the city cannot be sold.
4. Of the country's 18 trillion to 24 trillion local debts, more than 50% are related to land transfer income. If you can't sell the land, you won't be able to pay the debts. If you can't afford the debt, you won't have the money to work.
5. In fact, in all the bad debts of banks, the bad debt rate of real estate is the lowest, and the industries such as steel are the highest. Even so, it is still difficult to obtain a reasonable loan for real estate, because the huge inventory makes the bank have doubts and believes that the real estate market is not good.
6. This round of adjustment has cut interest rates five times and lowered the reserve ratio. The drop in interest rates has led to an increase in the affordability of consumers. When the interest rate is high, even if the developer does not raise the price, the house is equivalent to the price increase. When the interest rate is low, the developer does not cut the price, which is equivalent to a price cut.
7. China's PPI index (production price index) has experienced negative growth for 44 consecutive months. China's previous PPI has fallen for a maximum of 29 months, and now it is 44 months. There is still no such bad time in history.
8. Some of the policies introduced by the new government in 2012 originally intended to regulate the price increase in 2013, and the results played a role in 2014. In 2014, it sold 90 million square meters less than in 2013.
9. In 2008, there was a surge in house prices immediately after the policy came out, because there was no inventory. Last year, I said that there will be no price spikes this year because there is a large amount of inventory. Within a year, our inventory has not been digested, but it has increased by 18 million square meters, and the total inventory has now reached 680 million square meters. This momentum is continuing and may exceed 700 million square meters.
Of the 1.77 billion square meters of inventory, more than 400 million are residential. Compared with the annual sales volume, this inventory is not large, but there are more than 200 million square meters of office buildings and shopping malls. The ratio of this inventory to the annual digestion is about 1:1, which is difficult at this rate. Digest the inventory.
11. We also have 7 billion square meters of construction work, of which more than 4 billion square meters are residential, about 1 billion square meters per year, and more than 800 million square meters completed this year, and sales are similar. In contrast, more than 300 million square meters of office buildings and shopping malls are completed every year, but not many office buildings and shops can be sold in one year.
12. Enterprises should make a good calculation. If the inventory exceeds 30-40% of the total assets of the company, it means that it is very dangerous; if it is 50-60%, it is very dangerous; if it reaches 70-80%, then the enterprise Basically dead.
13. Some people say that the second child may have pulled the real estate market. About 3 million babies are born each year, and only half of them are in cities, with little impact. If the child's household registration can be registered at the place of birth, it may have an impact on the housing market, because it means more families will enter the city.
14. The changes in the industrial structure and demographic structure of the city will also affect the market. For example, in Shenzhen, a new wave of Internet has greatly increased the level of employment in Shenzhen. Many young people with high knowledge level have entered Shenzhen, and housing prices have also It has risen.
15. The volume of second-hand housing transactions in Beijing this year is three times that of first-hand houses. Second-hand housing transactions can drive first-hand housing. This year, the Beijing luxury market is selling well. Why do houses over 10 million sell so well? It is very likely that many people have sold old houses.
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