On the one hand, prices have steadily declined; on the other hand, the manufacturing industry has gradually declined, which opened the channel for fine-tuning of monetary policy. On November 23, HSBC announced that the initial value of China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index in November was 48.0%, compared with 10 The month-end value of 51.0% fell by 3 percentage points, the lowest value in 32 months, and fell below the watershed of 50.0%. The situation in China's manufacturing industry is becoming increasingly severe, and the expectation of monetary policy easing is also heating up again. From the various sub-indices, the output index fell sharply from 51.4% in October to 46.7%, the same as the lowest in 32 months, dragging down the overall manufacturing PMI data. The new orders index also shrank from last month's expansion, but the new export orders index showed an accelerated expansion, which means that the shrinking of the new order index is mainly due to the decline in domestic demand. Pan Zhengyan, deputy director of the Financial Research Center of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, told the newspaper that many factors have caused domestic demand to shrink. "On the one hand, China's economic downturn is expected to heat up, affecting manufacturers' expectations. On the other hand, after a long time. The money has tightened, and the problem of corporate funds has begun to be exposed to a large extent. Some funds for projects that have already started have not kept up. In addition, the impact of the property market regulation has begun to appear.†The HSBC manufacturing PMI index is mostly for SMEs, but from the current perspective, large Enterprises are also not optimistic. According to previous data, China's industrial added value above designated size increased by 13.2% year-on-year in October, and the growth rate dropped steadily. Many analysts believe that the official manufacturing PMI index is likely to fall below 50.0% in November. "As China's economic growth rate has basically slowed down, macroeconomic regulation and control also hopes that the economic growth rate will decline, and the external environment is equally severe. Therefore, the Chinese manufacturing PMI index is likely to remain below 50.0% in the next three to four months." Masahiko pointed out. Among the various classification data, it is more gratifying that both the input price index and the ex-factory price index have dropped significantly, which means that the pressure on the survival cost of manufacturers is gradually decreasing. On the one hand, prices have steadily declined; on the other hand, the manufacturing industry has gradually declined, which has opened the way for fine-tuning of monetary policy. Qu Hongbin, HSBC China's chief economist and co-head of Asia Pacific for economic research, said that the decline in the initial value of HSBC's manufacturing PMI in China indicates that the growth of industrial added value is likely to fall further to around 11%-12%, which will be implemented for decision makers. Further partial easing policies provide space. As the effects of partial easing policies gradually emerge, the Chinese economy is still able to achieve a soft landing. Pan Zhengyan believes that the total amount of credit will be further relaxed in the coming months. "From the perspective of China's annual credit rhythm, there will be a certain amount of heavy volume in the first and fourth quarters, while the second and third quarters are relatively tight. In the current situation, there will be more significant volume in the fourth quarter than in the third quarter. Pan Zhengyan also believes that the probability of lowering the RRR in December and January next year is higher. "At present, funds at all levels of enterprises, markets and banks are very tight, especially in banks. If you do not want the economic growth to decline sharply, the money must be loose."
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