Since March, Zhejiang, Hunan, Jiangxi, Chongqing, Guizhou and other places have unexpectedly appeared a rare off-season "electricity shortage" phenomenon - restricting electricity, orderly electricity and other unconventional means to become normal. The National Development and Reform Commission has warned that the gap between supply and demand in East China, North China and South China is expected to be large during the summer peak period. The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a warning yesterday: China's summer power gap may boost diesel demand by 300,000 barrels per day. The price of thermal coal rose for 8 weeks, and the increase was over 20%. The on-grid price was not adjusted in time and was regarded as the main cause of the power shortage. Wang Tao (column), chief economist of UBS China, believes that the government's intervention in coal and electricity prices is a key factor in the power shortage. In order to control inflation, the government tried to lower the contract price of coal and delay the adjustment of electricity prices. This has led to a decline in the compliance rate of coal companies to contracts. At the same time, the power generation enthusiasm of the power plant is also low under the loss situation. At present, the overall utilization rate of the thermal power unit is still low. The coal industry has different views. At the 2nd China Coal Supply and Demand Situation Analysis and Import and Export Trade Fair held on May 12th, “My Steel Networkâ€, Wu Chenghou, vice chairman of China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, believed that the implementation of power planning in the past two years was not supported. The new power supply is concentrated in the northwest, and the construction of the power channel from the west to the east and the north to the south is slow, making it impossible for large-scale and long-distance transmission of power. In the eastern part where electricity load is concentrated, the thermal power project was suspended, making the regional imbalance more serious. Zhang Hong, deputy director of the Policy Research Department of the China Coal Industry Association, said yesterday that the reforms have been huge. The coal industry has bid farewell to losses after 2003, and its profit in 2010 reached 300 billion yuan. In 2001, the average monthly wage of the former state-owned key coal mines was 711 yuan, and in 2010 it was 3,500 yuan; the annual output also increased from 1.3 billion tons in 2001 to 3.24 billion tons in 2010. Therefore, the investment in the coal industry is also growing. The “Eleventh Five-Year†coal investment is as high as 125 million yuan, five times that of the “10th Five-Year Planâ€. "The production capacity of new investment will be gradually released in the '12th Five-Year Plan', and the pressure of overcapacity will increase." Zhang Hong said. The total planned coal production of the provinces and districts and coal enterprises in the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan†is more than 5 billion tons, far higher than the “ceiling†of the “3.7 billion tons†output planned by the National Energy Administration. This means that a loose supply will ease coal tensions, while coal prices are expected to fall, or bring benefits to electricity companies. However, in the final analysis, in order to alleviate the power shortage, it is necessary to adhere to the reform direction of the "Notice of the State Council on Printing and Reforming the Power System Reform Plan" promulgated in 2002, and explore the real electricity price formation mechanism.
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