May PV polysilicon import and export market analysis

According to the latest customs statistics, China's polysilicon imports in May 2013 were 5,859 tons, down 19.35% from the previous month, a sharp drop of 25.8% year-on-year, the lowest value since 2013. At the same time, the average price of China's polysilicon imports in May was slightly The increase to 18.24 US dollars / kg, an increase of 1.3% from the previous month, down 32.9%. The Silicon Industry Branch believes that the main reason for the sharp decline in the amount of imported polysilicon in May is that the industry expects the domestic polysilicon “double-reverse” case to be cut in June and pushes the import price to rebound slightly. From the perspective of China's imports of polysilicon from January to May, the cumulative import volume reached 34,339 tons, an increase of 0.91% year-on-year; the average price of polysilicon imports fell to 18.33 US dollars / kg, compared with the average annual price of polysilicon imports in 2012 fell by 27.7%. Such low import prices are not only far lower than the production costs of foreign companies, but also have a huge impact on the domestic market. Therefore, the current situation of foreign polysilicon dumping is still continuing, and the living environment of domestic enterprises continues to deteriorate. A number of domestic companies originally scheduled to start construction in April-May were also affected by the dumping of imported polysilicon, canceling or delaying the start-up plan. It is expected that the resumption of production of enterprises that have been suspended for more than one year is very difficult and may be forced to withdraw from the market.

According to the country-specific import data in May, imports from South Korea, the United States, and Germany accounted for 87% of the total imports. These three countries are still the countries with the largest export of polysilicon. Among them, imports from South Korea were 1342 tons, accounting for 22.9% of total imports; imports from the United States were 1661 tons, accounting for 28.3% of total imports; German imports were 2,097 tons, accounting for 35.8% of total imports; other regions The import volume is 760 tons, accounting for only 13% of the total. Among them, the amount of polysilicon imported from the United States and South Korea declined in different degrees in May, while the import volume from Germany showed a slight increase, resulting in the import of polysilicon from Germany in May. From January to May 2013, the total import volume from Korea, the United States and Germany was 29,708 tons, accounting for 86.5% of the total imports. Among them, the total imports from Korea were 8,150 tons, the total imports from Germany were 10062 tons, and the total imports from the United States were 11,496 tons.

From the export prices of the three major polysilicon exporting countries in May 2013: South Korea 19.19 US dollars / kg, the United States 13.19 US dollars / kg, Germany 19.19 US dollars / kg. In May 2013, the unit price of imports from the United States rebounded slightly by 0.7% from April 2013. The unit prices of imports from Korea and Germany continued to decline in April 2013, which showed a different degree of decline from April 2013. The unit price of imported polysilicon remained the lowest among the three countries in May 2013, while the average monthly price in Germany hit a record low. The average price of polysilicon imports from January to May 2013 was US$18.33/kg, of which the average price of imports from South Korea from January to May was US$19.72/kg, and the average price of imports from Germany from January to May was US$21.87/kg, 1-5. The average monthly import price from the United States was $13.51/kg. It is worthy of concern in the industry: in terms of import volume, the import volume of polysilicon in May was 5,859 tons, which was significantly lower than that in April, and the lowest monthly import value since 2013, mainly due to China’s South Korea and the EU's polysilicon “double-reverse” expectations have increased. Therefore, based on the expectation of China's “double-reverse” in June, in order to avoid sanctions, the import volume of polysilicon in May has dropped significantly. Meanwhile, the average price of polysilicon imports in May is 4 The month has risen, but the month-on-month increase is only 1.3%. It can be seen that foreign dumping is still continuing. In addition, China's negotiations with the United States, South Korea and the EU on "double opposition" cases, domestic demand is weak, making it difficult for domestic polysilicon enterprises to get out of the operational dilemma. Domestic enterprises originally scheduled to start in April-May also Cancelled or delayed construction plans due to the suppression of imported polysilicon prices. At present, there are only 5 enterprises that can maintain production, and the number of start-up enterprises is only about 10% of the total. Currently, the price of polysilicon is not only lower than the production cost of foreign polysilicon enterprises, but also lower than the cost of domestic enterprises. Continue to suppress the domestic market. The enterprises that maintain production, as relatively competitive domestic enterprises, are trying to prevent the production system from being scrapped and avoiding the loss of talents, so as to adopt contingency measures to maintain production. According to the trade method, in May, China's general trade mode imported 2,303 tons of polysilicon, accounting for 39.3%, and imported 3,557 tons of processing trade, accounting for 60.7%. In May, the processing trade mode still accounted for more than half of all the methods. According to the analysis, the reason why the import volume of polysilicon is difficult to fall to a low level for a long time is closely related to the fact that the proportion of imports by processing trade is maintained at a high level. It is the biggest way to circumvent the “double-reverse” taxation. The specific statistics by country are as follows:
Korea:
In May 2013, the amount of polysilicon imported from South Korea fell sharply to 1,342 tons, down 37.3% from the previous month. The unit price of imports continued to decline slightly to US$19.19/kg in April, a decrease of 2.8% from the previous month. In the first five months of 2013, the total amount of polysilicon imported from South Korea was 8,150 tons, and the average price was 19.72 US dollars/kg. The import price in January-May was relatively stable. United States:
The amount of polysilicon imported from the United States decreased in May 2013 to 1,661 tons, down 14.3% from the previous month. The unit price of imports increased by 13.19 US dollars per kilogram, up 0.7% from the previous month. In the first five months of 2013, the total amount of polysilicon imported from the United States was 11,496 tons, and the import volume ranked first among the three major importing countries; the average price was 13.51 USD/kg, and the lowest point appeared in February, which was 12.57 USD/kg, followed by 13 USD/kg above the low level. Germany:
In May 2013, the amount of polysilicon imported from Germany increased slightly to 2,097 tons, an increase of 2.3%. In May, the unit price of imports continued to decline to 19.91 US dollars/kg, a 5.0% decrease from the previous month, a record low since 2012. In the first five months of 2013, the cumulative amount of polysilicon imported from Germany was 10062 tons, and the average price was 21.87 US dollars/kg. According to customs statistics, China's polysilicon exports in May were 432 tons, an increase of 272% from the previous month.

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