Photovoltaic products or current price declines

[Caixin.com] (Comprehensive media reports) The recent decline in the price of China's PV products has continued to decline. The institutional analysis of supply and demand imbalances has led to a downturn in the economy. In the first quarter, China's PV module shipments fell by nearly 10% year-on-year for the first time in two years. In the near term, PV products generally experienced a similar decline, with some products falling more than 30% from the highest point to the present. According to statistics released by a dealer from January to May this year, from February 8 to 14, this year, the price of 245 watts of monocrystalline silicon components was reported at 1.74 US dollars / watt - 1.79 US dollars / watt, and as of last week, The market price range was at $1.48/W-1.67/W, a drop of nearly 18%. Polysilicon recently fell from 78 US dollars / kg in early May to the current 64 US dollars / kg, a decline of more than 10%. Guojin Securities said that this price decline is not a simple short-term fluctuation, but a staged economic downturn caused by the imbalance between supply and demand. It is the imbalance between supply and demand caused by the gradual release of large-scale production capacity and the decline in demand growth in the previous two years. It is a phased price drop. This is the only way for the solar industry to have a cost advantage. The National Gold Report outlines the general roadmap for the phased adjustment of the photovoltaic industry: this round of industry boom began in mid-2009, and the triggering factor was that after the financial crisis, each company extracted the polysilicon price loss in one lump sum, and then the economy rose all the way to last year. In the second half of the year, the trigger was triggered by the Italian and German markets. After that, the economy began to maintain and slowly declined. In early 2011, component sales began to be somewhat difficult. It was far less hot than the second half of last year, and there were signs that the industry began to turn cold. After that, the price of the component fell, followed by the battery, then the silicon wafer, and finally the polysilicon that had just begun to fall. "Currently, the price of polysilicon has not dropped significantly. Under the dual pressure of falling costs and sharp shrinking profits of downstream wafers, polysilicon will have a large decline, based on the highest level of RMB 700,000/ton at the beginning of the year. It may be close to 40%, and the market price may be up to 400,000 yuan/ton." Guojin Securities expects. As for the rebound in the economy, the agency judged that this needs to wait until around the fourth quarter of this year. However, Huatai United Securities believes that the decline in the price of the entire industrial chain of crystalline silicon cells is the trend of the times, and the price of polysilicon will remain strong due to the policy and supply and demand relationship. From the beginning of February to the present, the price of terminal components has fallen by 11% from the high level. The price of polysilicon links fell by only 7%. Therefore, “whether the demand exceeds expectations or the low-speed growth of supply will continue throughout the year. The PV industry will remain at a high level, and the polysilicon segment will remain the crown jewel in the PV industry chain.” Huatai United Securities also Analysis, the downward trend is expected to continue into the second quarter, in which China's secondary crystalline silicon component suppliers' product market price fluctuations will be the largest. However, after the market will bottom out, from the perspective of systemic factors, the second quarter is the traditional peak season for the photovoltaic industry. From the non-systematic factors, entering the second quarter, European energy policy determination, small and medium-sized system market growth and other factors will have Supporting role.  

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