Due to the impact of macro-control, domestic aluminum smelters basically fluctuated between 15500 and 17500/ton after May 2004, forming a huge contrast with the record high copper prices. By the end of December, the export tax rebates and export tariffs were cancelled. Before and after the announcement of the policy, aluminum prices had a wave of rapid rise in contraceptives with the participation of short-term speculative funds, but then quickly fell under a huge firm selling pressure, followed by a narrow range of finishing at 16,000 yuan, then this year aluminum In the author's opinion, after the baptism of macro-control, the domestic electrolytic aluminum began to enter the standard development period. After a series of industry policies have been introduced in succession, Shanghai Aluminum will usher in a splendid spring. In 2005, aluminum prices will enter the main Shenglang market after digesting inventory pressure. This round of high economic growth is mainly driven by investment demand, of which the performance is more obvious in the real estate and automobile industries, which is also the main part of aluminum consumption. The two major industries. The characteristics of these investments are the large scale of the project and require a longer investment cycle. At present, there are more than 70,000 projects under construction in China, and the scale of construction is more than 16 trillion, equivalent to Three-year fixed asset investment scale. Therefore, the investment climax that began in 2003 is based on an average five-year construction cycle, which lasts at least until 2007. In each of these years, the annual investment growth rate will not be lower than 25%. Although the United States has entered a rate hike cycle, its industrial production and new housing operating rates remain at a high level, and the rapid development of real estate does not change. The U.S. aluminum consumption in 2004 increased by as much as 12%. Although the demand of other countries is facing some variables, but The demand of the two major aluminum demanding countries in the United States will lead to a rapid growth in aluminum consumption in 2005. The deficit in the United States’ fiscal deficit and current account hit record highs, and US personal savings accounted for only 0.2% of household disposable income, well below 8 The -11% historical average, the lack of saving consumers and the life beyond the income level led to the continuous increase of the household debt burden of the United States and the high debt repayment rate. In order to solve the issue of domestic savings, the U.S. needs to pass trade and often Project deficit means a large number of imports from surplus countries. Geopolitical risks next year, security expenditures caused by the shadow of terror, social welfare burden under the ageing population, and expansion of tax cuts. Policies and other factors are all great difficulties faced by the Bush administration in reducing the double deficit. The possibility of a substantial reduction in the US fiscal deficit next year is very small. Therefore, as a whole, the US dollar will continue to weaken next year, which will become a continuous driving force for aluminum price rises. One of the factors. Alumina and energy consumption are the main factors affecting the production cost of aluminum ingots, which account for about 45% and 32% respectively. Currently, the production cost of most electrolytic aluminum plants in China is 16,500 yuan. More than a ton, this makes the domestic aluminum price drop space extremely limited. At the beginning of this year, LME integrated aluminum had plummeted, but Shanghai Aluminum is still relatively strong, resulting in the domestic and international parity of the bomb to 8.8 is also based on this reason. China's coal power implementation this year The linkage policy will increase the price of electricity, and the state will ban the direct import of alumina by producers below 100,000 tons. The import of alumina is mainly carried out by China Aluminum, with a strong monopoly, and therefore, the production of electrolytic aluminum. The short-term cost is difficult to reduce, which constitutes a strong support for aluminum prices. In summary, although short-term aluminum inventory pressure will restrain aluminum prices from rising, good fundamentals and market conditions will determine aluminum prices this year. Gradually rise into the channel.
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