On June 23, Galaxy Securities' mid-term strategy meeting in 2011 was held in Shenzhen. The theme of the conference was “Return of Ratcheting Dilemma Valueâ€, and the financial website was broadcast live. Qiu Shiliang, chief analyst of the machinery industry of the Galaxy Securities Research Department, released the investment strategy report for the machinery industry in the second half of the year. The following is a summary of the report: Qiu Shiliang pointed out in the report that in the medium and long term, look at the equipment of the emerging industry. This equipment belongs to the transition period in the next five years. The opportunities of the traditional cyclical industry still exist, giving birth to opportunities for emerging equipment. In the short term, the traditional equipment industry is optimistic. For the construction machinery that everyone is concerned about, we believe that the current prosperity is at a high level, and the economy is very high from the first quarter. Due to the promotion factors, the overdraft for the second quarter and the reasons for dealer inventory. The data in the second quarter fell very fast. The second quarter of the chain is still falling. Looking at the data for the first half of the year, the current data is relatively normal, and tends to think that the impact of distortion will be removed in the third quarter, and the data is more realistic. Starting from the third quarter, both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. Therefore, we are optimistic about the rebound of construction machinery in the third quarter. For the prosperity of shipbuilding, we think the first place, the cycle is downward, and the small cycle is upward. The short term is optimistic about this industry. We are not optimistic about the medium cycle. For coal mine machinery, we think that the economy is average. In addition to the relatively low railway valuation, the transition industry has a relatively high valuation. At this time, we must continue to look at some sub-sectors. At present, we think that the railway and nuclear power, we believe that the economy can be maintained, but it is difficult to surpass. He will have a chance when there is no chance in the pro-cyclical industry. For some equipment industries is a process of gaining momentum. We do something from the bottom up. Judging from the degree of prosperity, I have just said that the basic logic is still the judgment of the logic driven by the sub-industry. Judging from the macro perspective, the CPI in the first half of the year was down, and the investment growth rate was on the rise. I just talked about the construction machinery in addition to the logic that there is overdraft and inventory reasons in the first quarter. This led to a rapid decline in the second quarter, and the union opened in the third quarter. The chief macro believes that the policy of broad fiscal will be gradually released, and the reasons for the rebound of construction machinery will be strengthened. The engineering machinery looks fine in the later stage of growth, and will enter a stable growth period in the next two or three years. The so-called "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", Sany, or China United, the doubling of income is not limited, the risk is not big in the next five years from the load. From the perspective of growth rate, we believe that the growth rate will be faster in the first three years and slower in the future. Construction machinery has a higher level of attention. When doing a lot of coal mining machinery, there is a linear relationship between tracking coal mine fixed assets investment. If the growth rate of fixed assets, the new construction area of ​​real estate is not a linear relationship. If the company wants to continue to grow, it does not require fixed assets investment to decline. It is necessary to increase the growth rate of fixed assets investment by more than 10% per year or more than 10% of new construction area to ensure that the industry does not decline. When the critical point is exceeded, the elasticity is relatively large. When it comes down, the elasticity is three to four points. Assume that last year's sales volume was 120. If the fixed asset investment growth rate, if 20%, the demand growth rate is 20%. However, when 15% of the time, the demand growth rate is likely to be a negative 10%. The elasticity is relatively large. The construction machinery has a theoretical growth rate for new construction area and fixed asset investment. The transfer of ownership can lead to theoretical distortion. In general, construction machinery can enter the focus when it is around 10 times. If you encounter a small cycle, the performance announcement period usually rebounds. The historical experience is like this, and the observation history is also like this. Our portfolio is relatively clear and tends to buy faucets from a conservative perspective. From the perspective of flexibility, second-tier stocks are optimistic. In fact, some infrastructure data was observed. At present, we see a decline in sales in the second quarter. The infrastructure data of railway investment is basically synchronized. Tracking data is meaningful and helpful for judgment. We believe that the industry will gradually concentrate in the future and we are optimistic about the industry leader. Logically, some counter-cyclical sub-sectors are recommended for uncertainty. Push when there are no unfavorable factors in the nuclear power railway, including aerospace military. The Aerospace Military Industry Department is optimistic, especially around July 1st. The investment logic of financial stocks is not too static PE, but more is another factor. Summarize some of the valuation aerospace military stocks that we think can be referenced. The aircraft carrier is more optimistic about the current aircraft carrier industry chain. From the perspective of the future, if we say transformation. The sub-sectors that are optimistic in the next five years are far away, and may be the aircraft, satellite, navigation line, and the Beidou industrial chain company. That piece of material that we think is ready to go is the industry. Currently recommended in the aerospace military industry includes satellite and aerospace power (600893). From the perspective of machinery, China is currently strong and still in the whole machine. From its characteristics, the assets are relatively light. Moreover, from the perspective of global competition, China is the easiest to gain an advantage in the whole machine. It involves the advantage of some human cost and the advantage of after-sales service. When the whole machine enterprise reaches a certain scale and extension, the basic parts are very strong. China does not have a big chance to see machine tool companies. In fact, such research has been done before. When the domestic market demand is relatively large, it will gain a competitive advantage when relying on the local market to obtain scale advantages. Classic management and strategic advantages.
Traditionally, the market for mechanical basic parts is very large. At present, many high-end products still need to be imported. This industry depends on the Chinese material industry. With the simultaneous progress of the entire industrial chain, China's basic parts companies can make progress. In the basic parts company, our judgment on the industry believes that there will be a growth rate in the next five years. It is ok for the industry to have such high growth. We are optimistic about Tianma and Zhongding shares (000887) in the company of mechanical basic parts. Chemical equipment, today, I am also fortunate to have the petrochemical equipment CEO, I can listen to his wonderful speech later. From the secondary market, chemical equipment pays special attention to construction machinery. The scale of chemical equipment is still quite large, but there are not many investment targets. Most of the sub-sectors have gone through a period of high growth. Offshore equipment is also a potential industry, because China is still at a relative disadvantage in terms of competition and needs time to gain global competitiveness. But from a longer cycle, we are optimistic about the offshore industry. From the point of view of the standard, the offshore equipment did not find a suitable one as a separate target, and the industry is in a promising industry. Coal machinery growth is a relatively stable growth period, and our optimistic companies are biased towards fascinating faucets. The high growth of this industry is over, and more are the opportunities brought by small coal mines to reorganize large coal mines. Because the new high growth in fixed asset investment is over. This industry has only bottom-up research, and the sectoral opportunities are not great. On the railway, the economy is continuous, but there is no room for upward adjustment. The valuation level is credible and not flexible enough. From the perspective of the railway equipment chain, the localization of key components is now very high, and the actual localization is very low. We are optimistic about some companies that import substitution, and can import alternative companies on key components. I judge that there were a lot of companies in 2012. More concerned about that piece of the company. Shipbuilding We believe that the medium cycle is downward and the rebound is not sustainable. We feel that we will take a longer "U" shape. We judge that we can only get up in the cycle around 2012. At present, I am not very optimistic about this industry, but I am optimistic about some trading opportunities. Nuclear bomb equipment has caused global fear of nuclear power because of the earthquake in Japan. We think the impact is far-reaching. China will not stop because of this, but I feel that the space and probability of exceeding expectations are getting smaller. We are not very optimistic about this industry. We feel that it is more difficult to exceed expectations. In addition, optimistic about some synthetic diamond and tool industry chain. Industrial automation intelligent equipment, from the perspective of listed companies, the valuation is relatively high, this industry can continue to study.
Traditionally, the market for mechanical basic parts is very large. At present, many high-end products still need to be imported. This industry depends on the Chinese material industry. With the simultaneous progress of the entire industrial chain, China's basic parts companies can make progress. In the basic parts company, our judgment on the industry believes that there will be a growth rate in the next five years. It is ok for the industry to have such high growth. We are optimistic about Tianma and Zhongding shares (000887) in the company of mechanical basic parts. Chemical equipment, today, I am also fortunate to have the petrochemical equipment CEO, I can listen to his wonderful speech later. From the secondary market, chemical equipment pays special attention to construction machinery. The scale of chemical equipment is still quite large, but there are not many investment targets. Most of the sub-sectors have gone through a period of high growth. Offshore equipment is also a potential industry, because China is still at a relative disadvantage in terms of competition and needs time to gain global competitiveness. But from a longer cycle, we are optimistic about the offshore industry. From the point of view of the standard, the offshore equipment did not find a suitable one as a separate target, and the industry is in a promising industry. Coal machinery growth is a relatively stable growth period, and our optimistic companies are biased towards fascinating faucets. The high growth of this industry is over, and more are the opportunities brought by small coal mines to reorganize large coal mines. Because the new high growth in fixed asset investment is over. This industry has only bottom-up research, and the sectoral opportunities are not great. On the railway, the economy is continuous, but there is no room for upward adjustment. The valuation level is credible and not flexible enough. From the perspective of the railway equipment chain, the localization of key components is now very high, and the actual localization is very low. We are optimistic about some companies that import substitution, and can import alternative companies on key components. I judge that there were a lot of companies in 2012. More concerned about that piece of the company. Shipbuilding We believe that the medium cycle is downward and the rebound is not sustainable. We feel that we will take a longer "U" shape. We judge that we can only get up in the cycle around 2012. At present, I am not very optimistic about this industry, but I am optimistic about some trading opportunities. Nuclear bomb equipment has caused global fear of nuclear power because of the earthquake in Japan. We think the impact is far-reaching. China will not stop because of this, but I feel that the space and probability of exceeding expectations are getting smaller. We are not very optimistic about this industry. We feel that it is more difficult to exceed expectations. In addition, optimistic about some synthetic diamond and tool industry chain. Industrial automation intelligent equipment, from the perspective of listed companies, the valuation is relatively high, this industry can continue to study.
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