Shenzhen Metal Daily Review: Copper and aluminum recovery consolidation inventory: London copper inventory of 104,575 tons? 800 tons of London aluminum stocks of 942,925 tons? 4150 tons of warehouse volume changes: Shanghai copper contract 0410 on the day a total turnover of 133,078 hand positions 14,070 hand,? 6282 A total of 57,600 contracts were traded on the Shanghai copper contract 0411 on the same day, and 74744 hand positions were held. On the day of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract 0410, a total of 10,186 lots were traded on hand and 28980 lots were held on hand. The 1201 Shanghai aluminum main contract 0411 traded 5,918 lots on the same day, holding positions 21404. Hand, ▲822 hand plate features and analysis: Yesterday London copper OHLC (opening, highs, lows, closes) were: 2650 Aluminum OHLC (opening, highs, lows, closes) were: 1721.5 The Fed’s Open Market Committee announced for the first time in four years that the benchmark interest rate was raised by 25 basis points to 1.25% in order to maintain inflation under control. On the 30th, the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates marked the official end of the loose monetary policy cycle initiated by the Fed in 2001. Before the rate hike, the Fed’s benchmark interest rate was 1%, which was the lowest level since 1958. Recently, the U.S. economy has regained its momentum of growth. U.S. economic growth so far in 2004 has created 1.2 million jobs for the United States. Therefore, it is expected that the Fed will gradually increase interest rates several times in 2004 and 2005. In a post-meeting statement on June 30th, the Fed reiterated that it would raise interest rates "with moderation," which means that the Fed will tend to adopt a small, 25 basis point rate hike strategy in the future. However, the Fed also stated that it will adjust the rate and pace of interest rate increase according to economic needs. As the market has already anticipated the Fed’s rate hike, the US dollar in the foreign exchange market did not rise or fall last night, and all varieties in the London metal market have risen by a certain margin. Copper returned to yesterday's high, while aluminum returned to the consolidation area above 1700. Today, the main copper contract of Shanghai copper opened at 0430 yuan/ton at the low point of 25,380 yuan/ton. Afterwards, it oscillated upwards throughout the day, and there was a large amount of buying at the end of the day. The daily limit of today's Shanghai aluminum main contract was 0410 yuan compared to copper today. Always in the opening price of 15,810 yuan / ton in the vicinity of a narrow range of oscillation, the aluminum market has maintained a narrow range of shocks for a long time, from a technical point of view there is a need for breakthroughs. After two days of turbulence, London Copper returned to its consolidation center and was still oscillating at a bandwidth of US$2,650/ton. Lon Aluminum, on the other hand, was relatively firm, hovering at US$1,685-1,750/ton, and slowly making a move. From a technical point of view, copper and aluminum are still not out of the consolidation region. At the time when the Fed’s interest rate increase plan and steps are becoming increasingly cautious on the occasion of the election, China’s macroeconomic regulation and control has no further in-depth trend. The fundamentals of the international market are large. The change is temporarily temporary. Under such circumstances, with the off-season in the metal market during the summer, the possibility of sideways price of copper and aluminum is further increasing. Currently, there are still 100,000 tons of copper stocks in London. At the current rate, it still takes more than three months to exhaust the stock. Therefore, in a short period of time, the probability of a rapid rise is small. In addition, the performance of China's macro-regulatory effects requires a certain amount of time, and the extent of the fundamental effects on copper and aluminum is not yet known. Under these circumstances, I am still holding a vicious view on copper and aluminum. I suggest that we wait for the market to go beyond a clear direction and then build a strategic position.
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