Coal: The continuous rise in thermal coal prices will continue to rise

Thermal coal: The relative tight supply of effective supplies, coal prices continue to rise more space. Starting in mid-October, China's thermal coal prices continued to rise, and Qinhuangdao Port Datong high-mixed prices have risen by more than 10%. In the near future, the northern region is about to enter the heating season, and the demand for coal will increase. At the same time, due to the possibility of the extremely cold weather expected this year, major power plants will be stepping up their efforts to snap up winter storage coal, and the demand for thermal coal will be strong. On the supply side, the speed of recovery of integrated coal mines in Shanxi is lower than expected, and Henan, Shaanxi, and Shandong will gradually begin to promote resource integration, affecting supply to some extent. It is expected that thermal coal prices will continue to rise in November.

Coking coal: The bad side is good and is expected to rise in November. In terms of negative development, the negative impact of power cuts and production reductions is continuing. Coupled with the elimination of outdated production capacity and other policies, the demand for coking coal may decline. On the positive side, the cold winter is approaching each steel mill and coking plant to actively replenish the inventory to cope with the weather changes. This will cause the tightness of the coking coal market to some extent, and some coking coal prices still have room to rise. It is expected that the price of coking coal will fluctuate in November.

Anthracite: It is expected that the price will continue to rise. In October, the price of anthracite all over the country went up. With the gradual completion of autumn and mid-October in October, China ushered in the traditional low season for fertilizer use. However, considering that fertilizer companies that have suspended power production in succession have resumed production, fertilizer prices have remained high, and the seasonal demand for civil coal has increased, it is expected that anthracite prices will continue to rise slightly in the coming months.

Pulverized coal injection: The steady increase in demand has driven up prices. Pulverized coal has also shown a rising trend recently, and the price of coal injected in Shanxi has increased by 6% to 8%. As there is an expectation of an increase in coal prices, the mining volume of major metallurgical enterprises has increased, and it is expected that the increase in demand will drive the price of injection coal to continue to rise.

Coke: Demand drops in cost, and coking companies suffer a serious loss of coke prices. In the early stage, the steel mills generally restricted production, and the demand for coke decreased. The coke plant increased its loss due to the increase of the price of clean coal, and the demand for coke prices increased. It is expected that under the influence of administrative regulation, the price of coke in the future will increase slightly.

International prices: Thermal coal prices continue to rise, highlighting two major uncertainties. Entering into the winter in the northern hemisphere will increase the demand for coal in the northern hemisphere, and there is great possibility that the international coal price will continue to rise in the future. However, there are still two major uncertainties: First, whether excess liquidity can continue to push up commodity prices; It is whether there will be an expected extreme cold in the world this winter.