First quarter of 2011 steel prices will be near two-year highs

Recently, a number of steel mill insiders and steel traders have stated that due to the rising cost factors driven by rising raw material prices, steel prices will further maintain the current upward trend in 2011, and create a near two-year high before and after the first quarter. It may start to fall.

“Demand for steel is expected to remain stable in 2011. At present, iron ore, coking coal, water, electricity, and transportation are all rising. Due to cost, next year’s steel prices will definitely maintain the current upward trend and will rise to nearly two years in the first quarter. The high point," said an executive from the domestic marketing department of Anshan Iron and Steel Group, told reporters. "But due to the oversupply of steel, the situation cannot be reversed. Steel prices are expected to rise and fall in the second quarter beyond the limit of the market."

Since November, steel prices have been rising, and prices have generally risen. So far, Shanghai HRC has reached RMB 4380-4,400/ton, which has risen by nearly RMB 200/ton over October. The average cold plate price has risen by RMB 100/ton during the same period, and the increase in thread prices has reached RMB 400/ton. Steel prices hit new highs in recent years.

In mid-December, Baosteel, Wuhan Iron and Angang, the three major domestic steel mills, raised prices in January 2011 one after another.

Among them, Baosteel first released its pricing strategy for January 2011. Except that electrogalvanized and oriented silicon steels remained stable, the rest of the major plate types were generally raised by 150-300 yuan/ton, ranging from 2-5.5%; Anshan Iron & Steel raised its overall range. In the 100-350 yuan / ton; Wuhan Iron and Steel raised the range of 60-300 yuan / ton.

On December 23, Hebei Iron & Steel also issued a pricing policy for January 2011, in which the plate-up rate increased by RMB 200/t.

My steel network analyst Zhang Hao believes that the price increase of the three major steel mills has in turn pushed up the steel market at the end of the year and early next year. It is expected that the trend of steel prices next year will be roughly the same as this year, showing a quarterly rise and second quarter. Fall, weak shocks in the third quarter and consolidation in the fourth quarter.

“Although steel prices are expected to continue to rise in the first half of next year, because of the cost-driven rise, the profits of steel companies will not increase, but will become thinner and thinner.” An insider of the steel plant frankly said.

Wu Dongying, dean of the Baosteel Economic Management Research Institute, said at an industry conference recently that the average steel price in 2011 will be slightly higher than in 2010, but the industry sales profit rate is similar to that of 09 and 10 years, and remains low.

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