On March 11th, a magnitude 9.0 strong earthquake struck the sea near the east coast of Japan, and five Japanese steel mills in Tokyo Bay faced with production stoppages. For the Chinese steel industry located in a neighboring country in Japan, it can improve the operating conditions of the Chinese steel industry to some extent.
According to the public information of Japan Steel Corporation, the earthquake directly affected the 26 million tons of crude steel production capacity of the three major steel plants in Japan. “From the perspective of product structure, the iron and steel enterprises in the affected areas mainly produce plates and pipes, such as the JFE Chiba Plant, which mainly produces stainless steel and tinplates.†Hu Yanping, a joint metal analyst, told the author that the plates were exported from Japan. The main varieties.
“Japan’s exports have been blocked due to the earthquake. The countries that were previously imported from Japan will certainly turn to other countries to purchase steel. Therefore, China’s exports of some mid-end steel products such as hot-rolled and medium-sized plates are expected to increase,†Hu Yanping said.
In an interview with the author, Xu Xiangchun, consulting director of Beijing Steel Union, said that Japan’s post-disaster reconstruction will bring huge demand to the Chinese steel industry, especially those producing construction steel products. In the long run, due to the post-disaster reconstruction after the Japanese earthquake, a large amount of construction steel is needed. However, among the Japanese steel products, only 30% of the construction steel products are used.
Wang Jinhua, an analyst at Guojin Securities, believes that the supply gap between Japan's crude steel and auto production will most likely be filled by South Korea and China. “If it is fully filled by China, it will increase the utilization rate of China’s crude steel capacity by 2.9 percentage points. ."
Zheng Dong, an analyst with Guosen Securities, pointed out in the research report that for the Chinese steel industry, the Japanese steel industry is mainly focused on the production of high-end steel products, such as silicon steel sheets and high-grade car plates. The earthquake will directly affect the export of Japan's high-end steel products, which will be beneficial to China's high-end panel manufacturers. "For example, Baosteel and Wuhan Iron and Steel."
Due to the reduction of Japanese steel production, the demand for iron ore will inevitably be reduced. Affected by the earthquake news, the price of iron ore swap contracts in the London Clearing House on April 11 fell 4.15% in April, the largest decline since 2011.
“Japan is the world’s 2-3 largest importer of iron ore, with iron ore import accounting for 12.78% of global iron ore shipping trade in 2010. If Japan’s 25% crude steel production capacity is affected, it will further The hot iron ore market is cooling down," Wang Zhaohua said.
However, Guosen Securities believes that, from a more distant perspective, post-disaster reconstruction will inevitably lead to an increase in demand for steel. The increase in demand for iron ore will push forward the price of iron ore.
The output of the Japanese steel industry ranks second in the world. In 2010, crude steel production was 109 million tons, second only to China. Japan's Nippon Steel, JFE, Sumitomo Metal, Tokyo Steel, and Kobe Steel's five major steel mills account for 75%-80% of Japan's total crude steel production. Dozens of five major steel production bases are mainly located in Tokyo. Gulf, Osaka Bay, and Fukuoka Bay, etc. Middle Kanto and Southern regions.
In 2010, Japan exported 43.40 million tons of steel, which accounted for about 45% of its output. It is the world’s largest steel exporter. Its export products are mainly hot coils, galvanized sheets, cold coils, medium plates, welded pipes, electrical steel and stainless steel. These steels are mainly used in industries such as automobiles, home appliances and shipbuilding.
According to the public information of Japan Steel Corporation, the earthquake directly affected the 26 million tons of crude steel production capacity of the three major steel plants in Japan. “From the perspective of product structure, the iron and steel enterprises in the affected areas mainly produce plates and pipes, such as the JFE Chiba Plant, which mainly produces stainless steel and tinplates.†Hu Yanping, a joint metal analyst, told the author that the plates were exported from Japan. The main varieties.
“Japan’s exports have been blocked due to the earthquake. The countries that were previously imported from Japan will certainly turn to other countries to purchase steel. Therefore, China’s exports of some mid-end steel products such as hot-rolled and medium-sized plates are expected to increase,†Hu Yanping said.
In an interview with the author, Xu Xiangchun, consulting director of Beijing Steel Union, said that Japan’s post-disaster reconstruction will bring huge demand to the Chinese steel industry, especially those producing construction steel products. In the long run, due to the post-disaster reconstruction after the Japanese earthquake, a large amount of construction steel is needed. However, among the Japanese steel products, only 30% of the construction steel products are used.
Wang Jinhua, an analyst at Guojin Securities, believes that the supply gap between Japan's crude steel and auto production will most likely be filled by South Korea and China. “If it is fully filled by China, it will increase the utilization rate of China’s crude steel capacity by 2.9 percentage points. ."
Zheng Dong, an analyst with Guosen Securities, pointed out in the research report that for the Chinese steel industry, the Japanese steel industry is mainly focused on the production of high-end steel products, such as silicon steel sheets and high-grade car plates. The earthquake will directly affect the export of Japan's high-end steel products, which will be beneficial to China's high-end panel manufacturers. "For example, Baosteel and Wuhan Iron and Steel."
Due to the reduction of Japanese steel production, the demand for iron ore will inevitably be reduced. Affected by the earthquake news, the price of iron ore swap contracts in the London Clearing House on April 11 fell 4.15% in April, the largest decline since 2011.
“Japan is the world’s 2-3 largest importer of iron ore, with iron ore import accounting for 12.78% of global iron ore shipping trade in 2010. If Japan’s 25% crude steel production capacity is affected, it will further The hot iron ore market is cooling down," Wang Zhaohua said.
However, Guosen Securities believes that, from a more distant perspective, post-disaster reconstruction will inevitably lead to an increase in demand for steel. The increase in demand for iron ore will push forward the price of iron ore.
The output of the Japanese steel industry ranks second in the world. In 2010, crude steel production was 109 million tons, second only to China. Japan's Nippon Steel, JFE, Sumitomo Metal, Tokyo Steel, and Kobe Steel's five major steel mills account for 75%-80% of Japan's total crude steel production. Dozens of five major steel production bases are mainly located in Tokyo. Gulf, Osaka Bay, and Fukuoka Bay, etc. Middle Kanto and Southern regions.
In 2010, Japan exported 43.40 million tons of steel, which accounted for about 45% of its output. It is the world’s largest steel exporter. Its export products are mainly hot coils, galvanized sheets, cold coils, medium plates, welded pipes, electrical steel and stainless steel. These steels are mainly used in industries such as automobiles, home appliances and shipbuilding.
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