On March 11, the Northeastern region of Japan suffered the most severe earthquake in history. Affected by this, on March 14, the Tokyo Plastics Index fell to 384 yen/kg, hitting a new low for more than three months, a sharp drop of 156 yen/kg from the February 18 high of 540 yen/kg, a decrease of 28.89. %; The benchmark August natural rubber contract was 362.6 yen/kg, which was approximately 10% lower than the settlement price of 401.4 yen/kg on the day of the earthquake. Hujiao was sealed in the limit, including the main contract price of RU1105** sealed at the limit price of 33,480 yuan (t price, the same below), also hit a new low in more than three months, compared with February 9 high of 4,350 yuan fell sharply 10020 Yuan, which has fallen by 23.03%, fell by 1,715 yuan compared with the closing price on the day of the earthquake.
Japan's automobile industry is developed, natural rubber consumption is second only to China and the United States, ranking third in the world. Consumption accounts for more than 10% of global natural rubber consumption. After the earthquake, Japan's three major auto giants Toyota, Honda, and Nissan announced that they had completely shut down production since March 14 and did not announce a resumption schedule. In the short term, as the auto industry has been hit hard and affected the tire supporting industry, the consumption demand for natural rubber will be significantly reduced. It will take some time for Japanese tire companies to rebuild their local factories after the earthquake and will suppress the demand for rubber in Japan. However, all tire factories in Japan have factories in many countries around the world, and their orders for global orders are expected to have little impact. Non-Japanese factories will increase production capacity. Even if the production of Japanese tire companies declines, tire manufacturers in other countries will take the opportunity to supplement their market share.
In the medium term, due to post-disaster reconstruction and recovery of the auto industry, Japan's natural rubber consumption is expected to resume growth. The earthquake will have a short-term bearish bias on the natural rubber market and a medium-long-term bias.
In addition, Japanese automakers such as Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mitsubishi and Suzuki have joint venture factories in India. These factories mainly rely on importing auto parts from Japan to maintain production, and earthquake disasters cut off the supply chains of core components. Currently, their auto parts supply The company has stopped production and will indirectly affect the Indian automobile industry.
On the whole, due to the impact of the earthquake on the energy, chemical and downstream consumer demand, the price of Hujiao ** will continue to weaken under the background of the continuous drop in the international natural rubber market. It is expected that the price of the main contract RU1105** may directly test the 30000 in the medium term. The support of the yuan-bit integer.
Japan's automobile industry is developed, natural rubber consumption is second only to China and the United States, ranking third in the world. Consumption accounts for more than 10% of global natural rubber consumption. After the earthquake, Japan's three major auto giants Toyota, Honda, and Nissan announced that they had completely shut down production since March 14 and did not announce a resumption schedule. In the short term, as the auto industry has been hit hard and affected the tire supporting industry, the consumption demand for natural rubber will be significantly reduced. It will take some time for Japanese tire companies to rebuild their local factories after the earthquake and will suppress the demand for rubber in Japan. However, all tire factories in Japan have factories in many countries around the world, and their orders for global orders are expected to have little impact. Non-Japanese factories will increase production capacity. Even if the production of Japanese tire companies declines, tire manufacturers in other countries will take the opportunity to supplement their market share.
In the medium term, due to post-disaster reconstruction and recovery of the auto industry, Japan's natural rubber consumption is expected to resume growth. The earthquake will have a short-term bearish bias on the natural rubber market and a medium-long-term bias.
In addition, Japanese automakers such as Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mitsubishi and Suzuki have joint venture factories in India. These factories mainly rely on importing auto parts from Japan to maintain production, and earthquake disasters cut off the supply chains of core components. Currently, their auto parts supply The company has stopped production and will indirectly affect the Indian automobile industry.
On the whole, due to the impact of the earthquake on the energy, chemical and downstream consumer demand, the price of Hujiao ** will continue to weaken under the background of the continuous drop in the international natural rubber market. It is expected that the price of the main contract RU1105** may directly test the 30000 in the medium term. The support of the yuan-bit integer.
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