Business News Agency June 12 News Development and Reform Commission announced on the 8th that the domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel was cut from the early morning on Saturday. Among them, the price of gasoline decreased by 530 yuan/ton, and the price of diesel dropped by 510 yuan/ton. After conversion, the retail price of No. 90 gasoline and No. 0 diesel (the national average) was reduced by 0.39 yuan/liter and 0.44 yuan/liter respectively. After the price adjustment, the domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel returned to the level of last March. This is not only the first time in recent years that there have been two consecutive price cuts for oil, and the decline has hit the highest level in three years.
Analysts believe that the current reduction is lower than the previous market expectations, and the new oil pricing mechanism is expected to launch again. However, based on the prediction of the future trend of international oil prices, the possibility that the new mechanism will be launched in the second half of this year will remain.
The drop was lower than market expectations. Li Hong, an analyst at refined oil products, believes that this reduction is lower than previously expected. "It should be based on filling some of the reservations in the up-front price adjustment in order to gradually streamline the pricing mechanism," he said.
Li Hong said that the oil price reduction will reduce the production and transportation costs of related industries, and the cost of domestic transportation and aviation logistics industries will decrease. At the same time, the cost of using vehicles will also be reduced, which will also help boost the sales of the automotive industry. However, for the oil refining industry, the price reduction will impact the performance of PetroChina and Sinopec. Although the cost of local refineries is at a declining stage, due to the sluggish performance of the downstream product market, it remains to be seen whether the refinery's processing losses can improve.
For the domestic oil product market in the latter part of the trend, the industry is expected to be more pessimistic, that the current total supply of resources in the market exceeds demand, it is difficult to effectively get rid of the "negative" of domestic demand. An Xun Sixiwang energy analyst believes that the price reduction may stimulate some replenishment demand. However, if international crude oil has not rebounded sharply and has rebounded sharply, another round of oil price cuts are expected to resume. At this time, the market will also fall into a depreciation cycle. Judging from the terminal demand, there is no good support from June to July, and it is very unlikely that the price of diesel will rebound. Affected by factors such as increased oil usage in summer, the price of gasoline may stabilize.
The new mechanism is expected to be launched in the second half of the year. The market once expected that due to the current decline in both international oil prices and domestic prices, the international oil prices will likely rise or fall in the second half of the year and even stop rising. This round of oil price adjustment is the introduction of a new pricing mechanism for refined oil products. A good time.
An industry source said in an interview earlier that although the timing is good, the actual launch of new mechanisms is unlikely. “The previous several oil price adjustments did not smooth out the price difference between domestic and international oil prices. After this price adjustment, the spread remains. If a new mechanism is introduced at this time, future oil prices will be completely adjusted according to the market, and the spread will continue to exist. It is only after the price gap has been substantially reduced that the new mechanism will be able to follow suit." he said.
However, market institutions still have expectations for the launch of the new mechanism in the second half of this year. Zhongyu Oil Market Analyst Wang Jintao believes that the average price of crude oil in the three places in the recent single day has fallen to the level of US$100/barrel. According to the reduction of oil price by the National Development and Reform Commission, the retail price of refined oil products may also be lowered again in July. At least at the end of June there will be a downward revision of expectations. "The new mechanism may still be launched at the beginning of July, but there will be a bigger change in the refined oil market later."
Li Hong also believes that due to the global supply of crude oil, the weak economic data in the euro zone and other factors, the current crude oil prices have been maintained weak operation, is expected to fall back in the late period. This will provide a good opportunity for reform of domestic refined oil pricing mechanism. The new refined oil pricing mechanism is expected to be launched in the second half of the year.
Analysts believe that the current reduction is lower than the previous market expectations, and the new oil pricing mechanism is expected to launch again. However, based on the prediction of the future trend of international oil prices, the possibility that the new mechanism will be launched in the second half of this year will remain.
The drop was lower than market expectations. Li Hong, an analyst at refined oil products, believes that this reduction is lower than previously expected. "It should be based on filling some of the reservations in the up-front price adjustment in order to gradually streamline the pricing mechanism," he said.
Li Hong said that the oil price reduction will reduce the production and transportation costs of related industries, and the cost of domestic transportation and aviation logistics industries will decrease. At the same time, the cost of using vehicles will also be reduced, which will also help boost the sales of the automotive industry. However, for the oil refining industry, the price reduction will impact the performance of PetroChina and Sinopec. Although the cost of local refineries is at a declining stage, due to the sluggish performance of the downstream product market, it remains to be seen whether the refinery's processing losses can improve.
For the domestic oil product market in the latter part of the trend, the industry is expected to be more pessimistic, that the current total supply of resources in the market exceeds demand, it is difficult to effectively get rid of the "negative" of domestic demand. An Xun Sixiwang energy analyst believes that the price reduction may stimulate some replenishment demand. However, if international crude oil has not rebounded sharply and has rebounded sharply, another round of oil price cuts are expected to resume. At this time, the market will also fall into a depreciation cycle. Judging from the terminal demand, there is no good support from June to July, and it is very unlikely that the price of diesel will rebound. Affected by factors such as increased oil usage in summer, the price of gasoline may stabilize.
The new mechanism is expected to be launched in the second half of the year. The market once expected that due to the current decline in both international oil prices and domestic prices, the international oil prices will likely rise or fall in the second half of the year and even stop rising. This round of oil price adjustment is the introduction of a new pricing mechanism for refined oil products. A good time.
An industry source said in an interview earlier that although the timing is good, the actual launch of new mechanisms is unlikely. “The previous several oil price adjustments did not smooth out the price difference between domestic and international oil prices. After this price adjustment, the spread remains. If a new mechanism is introduced at this time, future oil prices will be completely adjusted according to the market, and the spread will continue to exist. It is only after the price gap has been substantially reduced that the new mechanism will be able to follow suit." he said.
However, market institutions still have expectations for the launch of the new mechanism in the second half of this year. Zhongyu Oil Market Analyst Wang Jintao believes that the average price of crude oil in the three places in the recent single day has fallen to the level of US$100/barrel. According to the reduction of oil price by the National Development and Reform Commission, the retail price of refined oil products may also be lowered again in July. At least at the end of June there will be a downward revision of expectations. "The new mechanism may still be launched at the beginning of July, but there will be a bigger change in the refined oil market later."
Li Hong also believes that due to the global supply of crude oil, the weak economic data in the euro zone and other factors, the current crude oil prices have been maintained weak operation, is expected to fall back in the late period. This will provide a good opportunity for reform of domestic refined oil pricing mechanism. The new refined oil pricing mechanism is expected to be launched in the second half of the year.
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