Abstract As a well-known enterprise in the domestic optoelectronic industry, Sanan Optoelectronics has always been the industry leader in strategic emerging industries. Previously, Sanan Optoelectronics, which focused on the full-color ultra-high-brightness light-emitting diode (LED) epitaxy and chip production, seems to have some "three hearts and two minds" in recent years. A few days ago, Sanan...
As a well-known enterprise in the domestic optoelectronic industry, Sanan Optoelectronics has always been the industry leader in strategic emerging industries. Previously, Sanan Optoelectronics, which focused on the full-color ultra-high-brightness light-emitting diode (LED) epitaxy and chip production, seems to have some "three hearts and two minds" in recent years. Recently, the high-concentration photovoltaic industrialization project jointly invested by Sanxin Optoelectronics' subsidiary, Rixin Photovoltaic and the US, started in Huainan, Anhui. According to reports, after the project is completed, it will become the world's largest and most technologically advanced high-concentration photovoltaic power generation system and component production base. In the case of overcapacity in the LED industry, Sanan Optoelectronics, which will use the concentrating solar power system as a sideline, will succeed in finding another way. Is it still a road to death? The main business LED is worried about the overcapacity
"Since 2010, the global LED overcapacity problem has begun to stand out." China Securities Credit Rating analyst Yang Zhaoyuan said that according to IMS statistics, the global LED chip production capacity in 2011 was 81.3 billion, but the total demand was only 54.9 billion. In 2012, with the sharp decline in domestic LED investment, the pressure for further capacity growth will be alleviated, but the industry supply is still far greater than demand, resulting in less than 60% capacity utilization in 2012.
The serious overcapacity in the LED industry has caused the industry leader Sanan Optoelectronics to be deeply involved. According to the data of its 2012 annual report, the company achieved a net profit of 810 million yuan attributable to the parent company throughout the year, down 13.47% year-on-year. "The overcapacity of the LED industry is mainly concentrated in the upstream of the industrial chain, especially the overcapacity of LED chips like Sanan Optoelectronics," said a large brokerage LED industry analyst.
At the same time, Sanan Optoelectronics' annual LED application products realized revenue of 2.584 billion yuan, a surge of 345.35% year-on-year, but the gross profit margin dropped significantly by 14.36 percentage points to 25.31%. “This is because they have adopted the method of price reduction promotion.†Yang Zhaoyuan analyzed that due to the downturn in the industry, the company’s high inventory has had a negative impact on the company’s inventory turnover. The price reduction promotion will help to reduce the overall inventory to a certain extent.
However, Sanan Optoelectronics' 2012 annual report shows that the company's total inventory at the end of 2012 was still as high as 927 million yuan, and the inventory of goods has been accrued more than 18 million yuan.
At the same time of high inventory, the future market is not optimistic. According to the statistics of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute, the average price of LED chips in China dropped by 32% in 2012, and the average price of some products such as low-power LED blue-green chips for display screens fell by more than 50%. Yang Zhaoyuan said that with the advancement of industry technology and the stabilization of production capacity, the decline in product prices is an inevitable trend in the future development of the industry. The high-margin era of LED companies has passed and will remain in a low-margin state in the short term. “From the perspective of similar listed companies, Sanan’s inventory turnover rate is at a moderately low level, and short-term destocking pressures still exist.â€
It is worth noting that the company's annual non-operating income reached 506 million yuan, of which government subsidies were 438 million yuan, accounting for 48% of total pre-tax profits. According to industry statistics, the company has received a total of 1.579 billion yuan in government subsidies in the past three years, accounting for 73% of the total net profit. Yang Zhaoyuan said that from the perspective of companies that have published annual reports, the phenomenon of excessive government subsidies in LED corporate profits is widespread. However, the fundamental reason for the excessive proportion of government subsidies in corporate profits is that the profitability of the company's main business has not fully recovered.
Half of the performance will depend on the days of eating “tonic medicine†or it will be difficult to sustain. The above-mentioned brokerage analysts said that the government's subsidies for the LED industry will gradually decrease, especially for upstream chips, which will be completely stopped by 2014.
Institutional investors also showed their attitudes with actions. According to the fund's Four Seasons report, institutional investors reduced their holdings of 158 million shares in the fourth quarter of last year, and the stock market value decreased by 2.564 billion yuan. The shareholding ratio of listed companies accounted for 22.92% of the outstanding shares of listed companies.
Sideline concentrating photovoltaics "looks beautiful"
With the recent bankruptcy of Wuxi Suntech and the impact of the previous solar energy incident, the China Banking Regulatory Commission has recently warned of the potential risks of the photovoltaic industry. When the photovoltaic industry became the target of public criticism, Sanan Optoelectronics was interested in the photovoltaic industry. Concentrating solar energy has become one of the projects that Sanan Optoelectronics has been promoting in recent years. According to Huang Zhijun, the financial director of Sanan Optoelectronics, the total investment of the solar core high-concentration photovoltaic industrialization project is RMB 8 billion.
Sanan Optoelectronics' 2012 annual report data shows that the gross profit margin of concentrating solar energy is -4.3%. For the reasons for the loss, Sanan Optoelectronics said that during the reporting period, the first phase of the automated production line of the company's holding subsidiary, Rixin Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd., has been put into production. The localization effect of the assembly parts is lower than expected, and the running-in time of the production line is long. As a result, the reduction in production costs has not reached the intended target.
In fact, industry experts believe that concentrating photovoltaics, especially high-concentration photovoltaics, does not look so beautiful.
“Concentrating photovoltaic technology is the third generation of photovoltaic technology that will replace the second generation of crystalline silicon technology in the future.†Huang Zhijun said that this technology has high photoelectric conversion rate, high land utilization rate and high power generation per unit area.
But why are technologies and products that seem to have absolute advantages not currently being widely implemented and produced? According to industry experts, high cost is a hindrance. “High-power concentrating photovoltaics are much more expensive than crystalline silicon technology, whether it is components or maintenance.†Dr. Wang Wenjing, director of the China Solar Energy Society, said that this technology is only in the demonstration stage internationally.
According to industry experts, a battery used in concentrating photovoltaic power generation is 100 times more expensive than crystalline silicon cells. In addition, in actual operation, there are still many obstacles to high-concentration photovoltaic power generation.
“High-concentration photovoltaics are not yet available for large-scale production.†Wang Wenjing believes that this technology involves comprehensive technologies such as force, heat, light, electricity, machinery, electronics, and automation. It needs to solve solar tracking, light efficiency, and heat dissipation. A series of questions.
Wang Wenjing analyzed that, first of all, the tracking system of many high-concentration photovoltaic modules has a limited life span, and the use time is often a problem. Concentrating photovoltaic power generation needs to absorb the direct sunlight of the sun all the time, and it must be “followed by light†like a sunflower. Once the tracking system is damaged, it means that it cannot collect electricity. “Tracking system vulnerability is a prominent problem facing domestic pilot power stations.â€
In addition, its power generation components have extremely high requirements for concentration accuracy. “High-concentration concentrating power generation components are like big-headed dolls. They are supported by a pole. When the wind is too big, they will sway. The angle of concentrating is slightly different. The power generation effect is much worse.†Wang Wenjing said that the lens on the surface of the component requires environmental requirements. It is almost harsh. The first is that the surface of the lens should be very clean, which means that the component can't withstand the wind and sand. Once it is covered by sand, it will affect the concentrating effect to a large extent. If the moisture content in the humid air is not large, the scattering of sunlight will increase. Concentration has an effect. In addition, “the process of high-concentration photovoltaic power generation needs to consider a series of costs such as cooling treatment and self-consumption.â€
"In general, high-concentration photovoltaic is difficult to become the mainstream of photovoltaic power generation. Even if the cost is reduced in the future, its demanding requirements for the external environment will severely limit its production range." Wang Wenjing concluded. Han Xiaoping, managing director of China Energy Network, also agreed with this view. He believes that the orders for high-concentration photovoltaics in China are mainly from demonstration projects of major power groups. In the long run, thin-film photovoltaics may be the direction of the industry, but It is by no means a concentrating photovoltaic.
In the case that industry experts are generally not optimistic about its development prospects, in 2012, Sanan Optoelectronics' investment in concentrating photovoltaic projects has increased significantly. Sanan Optoelectronics' operating costs increased significantly by 144.36%, of which the operating cost of high-concentration solar products surged 1182.45% over the previous year.
“The Sanan Optoelectronics concentrating photovoltaic project has a greater risk.†A PV industry analyst who is not willing to be named, believes that the cost of the project is too high, and it is less likely to contribute to the overall profit of Sanan Optoelectronics. Advertising effectiveness may be greater than actual benefits.
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