According to the survey data, the spot price of polysilicon in June decreased by 28% month-on-month to US$53.4/kg; the price of 6-inch polysilicon wafer decreased by 23% in June to reach a new low of US$2.39/piece; the price of polysilicon components downstream It fell by 15% to $0.92/watt. The price of related products on the solar photovoltaic industry chain continues to fall sharply, indicating that the world photovoltaic industry is entering a downturn. In response to the upcoming "cold winter" of the global PV market, Yingli Group held a swearing-off meeting. Yingli executives believe that the current downturn in the global PV industry will continue for a long time, and the industry will be in a period of slow development in the next 18 months or so. There are many similar views in the industry. Most people think that the world's photovoltaic industry will not be able to achieve recovery growth until 2013 after entering this round of downturn. Li Shengmao, a senior researcher at China Investment Consulting, believes that the solar photovoltaic industry will achieve recovery growth, which may be faster than industry expectations. The industry will be out of the slow development period in the first half of 2012 and will be on the right track. This round of PV industry's downturn is directly affected by European countries' downward adjustment of PV feed-in tariff subsidies, but it is precisely because these countries' subsidy policies are “corrected too much†that the growth rate of local PV installed capacity has slowed down recently. In this case, the possibility of further reduction of PV subsidies by European countries is not large, which laid the foundation for the world photovoltaic industry to achieve recovery growth in the first half of next year. In addition, the slowdown in the development of the photovoltaic industry is not due to the macro environmental impacts such as the financial crisis, the lower income levels of consumers, which in turn led to a decrease in their willingness to purchase PV products. There are two main reasons for the slow development of the photovoltaic industry: First, because the decline in government subsidies temporarily exceeds the cost reduction brought about by technological advancement, investors' income is affected to some extent; second, the world photovoltaic industry in 2010. The rapid growth momentum has driven many companies to expand their production capacity at a high speed. At the time when these new capacity is put into production, the concentrated release of large-scale new production capacity has brought great pressure on the market. Li Shengmao believes that eliminating the adverse effects of the above two factors on the solar photovoltaic industry will not take too long, which determines that the photovoltaic industry will not be in a slow development period for a long time. For the photovoltaic industry with capital and technology-intensive characteristics, after overcapacity, PV companies will ship at low prices on the one hand, so that although the profit rate of enterprises will be affected in the short term, according to the speed of technological progress at this stage, about half a year. The time can completely change the downward trend of corporate profit margins brought by passive price cuts. In addition, PV companies will also reduce the effective utilization rate of production capacity and gradually reverse the situation of excessive growth of PV industry inventory.
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