Supply and demand contradicts still difficult to form methanol rise

Upstream:

The domestic anthracite coal market has entered the off-season demand, coupled with the fact that the downstream industry has been operating at a low level. Coal companies have not been able to change the market after frequent price cuts. With the further weakness in the downstream market and the high inventory levels of coal companies, it is expected that the prices of anthracite will continue to decline.

Spot:

Recently, new sources of goods have been transported to the East China/South China Port area, and the price trend in the area is temporarily not optimistic. The methanol recovery device in southern Shandong has a relatively high probability of recovery in the near future, and the east China is weak and continues to fluctuate. This is due to the fact that many companies have maintained stable shipments for the previous period. Therefore, they are more cautious in adjusting their trading volume, and are expected to focus on narrower consolidation in the latter period. At present, some companies in the northwestern major producing areas have little pressure on their inventory, so the short-term market adjustments are mainly narrow, with little volatility.

Downstream:

Formaldehyde: domestic formaldehyde production still maintained at around 50%, and the market was relatively weak. Local prices still fell slightly. At present, the cost inventory of formaldehyde and sheet companies is generally high, and most companies are facing the problem of slow fund return. The formaldehyde market is bearish and short-term is still bearish.

Dimethyl ether: The dimethyl ether market has risen in a contrarian direction, triggering a large-scale phase-out of downstream stocks, but the seller’s inventory has not declined due to this. Judging from the current market trend, the downstream still lacks confidence in the current market. With the loosening of market prices, most buyers will continue to withdraw from the market and the market trend will return to light.

Acetic acid: The domestic acetic acid market remained stable, some of the devices were still parked, and the manufacturer’s inventory was low. However, due to the onset of the off-season off-season, weak demand shrank the market, and the manufacturers’ shipment speed slowed slightly. The industry’s confidence in the market outlook was slightly insufficient, and it is expected that the short-term market should Will maintain a steady trend.

DMF: Manufacturers have reduced their volume to relieve high inventory pressure, but shipments have been poor. Both buyers and sellers have expressed pessimistic attitude towards the market outlook. At the end of the month, manufacturers’ dynamics have become the focus of attention, and the downward trend has become increasingly clear, but the magnitude remains to be seen.

trend analysis:

Although the inventory pressure in the main northwestern producing areas is not large, some methanol installations in the Shandong region have resumed work in succession, which will put pressure on the port prices. In the light of the macroeconomic side, and the demand side still maintains its weakness, it is difficult for the latter to form a sharp rise in the price of methanol in the later period. Overall, it will remain at a low level.

Operation suggestion:

Methanol 1309 price is still weak, and it is not appropriate to buy the bottom.