Abstract The 13th Beijing International Machine Tool Show is about to be unveiled. After 2012, which is considered to be “a bleak market situationâ€, this exhibition is undoubtedly more interesting, and it is normal to present a hot scene, at least from the level of participation of exhibitors. ...
The 13th Beijing International Machine Tool Show is about to be unveiled. After 2012, which is considered to be “a bleak market situationâ€, this exhibition is undoubtedly more interesting, and it is normal to present a hot scene, at least from the level of participation of exhibitors. Of course, the technology and product information that can be revealed in this exhibition is different from the previous ones. For those industry observers, it should be the focus of attention. Just like a professional will be held in Japan at the JIMTOF machine tool exhibition, the trend of high-end machine tool functions is summarized as: shorten processing time (J); distinctive ability (I); unmanned control (M); The six features of function (T), large (O), and complex (F) are the same. It is believed that the top international machine tool companies will bring high-end products that are enough for domestic counterparts to exhibit, which will not only attract the viewers and users, but also play the display capability and enhance the exhibition level. However, in the context of the global economic recovery is full of variables and the domestic demand market has undergone significant changes, for most exhibitors, through this exhibition, we will strive to achieve some spot transactions to alleviate the serious order “hungryâ€. It is a priority. After all, the topic of how to lead the development of machine tool technology has never been related to it. In the eyes of market participants, no matter what kind of outcomes appear at the transaction level of this exhibition, it is difficult to change the domestic machine tool industry will often encounter "tight days" for a long period of time in the future. Just like the chairman of a machine tool company in Guangzhou said: "The product that produced a happy time in 2010 will only become a good memory. Today, only 2013 is expected to be a big year."
Significant changes in the market environment
American predictor Jeremy Rifkin has such a passage in his book The Third Industrial Revolution: "We are in the final stages of the second industrial revolution and the oil century. This is an unacceptable The grim reality, because this reality will force humans to quickly transition to a new energy system and industrial model. Otherwise, human civilization will be in danger of disappearing." In his view, as emerging economies enter the oil era, they The large increase in demand continues to push up oil prices, causing world oil prices to hit a record $147 per barrel in July 2008, causing soaring prices, declining spending power and a slowdown in the global economy.
Whether this view is correct or not, it is now easy to feel that, in addition to the more frequent smog weather, the cost of production and living is indeed rising. For machine tool companies, in addition to the rising prices of upstream raw materials and ancillary services, the pressure on labor costs is also very heavy. Many listed companies have indicated in their performance announcements that they are facing increasing financial pressure. When it is not possible to cash in on product technology added value or continue to lead the market with new products to hedge and digest production costs, the company's performance of "Waterloo" is inevitable.
At present, the number of new orders has decreased significantly, the capital occupation has risen sharply, and the contradiction between the large amount of idle manufacturing resources and supply and demand is very prominent. This is likely to lead to further intensification of market competition. If you still deal with the customary "price war", then for any business, the consequences are serious.
There is always a limit to demand growth
Recently, some of the predictive views on this year's machine tool market are common in the media. Some can even predict the growth rate to the accuracy of one decimal place; others think that the domestic machine tool industry will face "new opportunities" or "excellent opportunities" in 2013. In short, I hope to give a judgment that the market will pick up in 2013. However, this may not even be able to appease the fragile psychology of the industry.
“The economy is a game of trust... This means that when the public’s trust is sufficient, the economy will prosper and there will be security in the future; on the contrary, the economy will decline and the outlook will be dim.†The same applies to the industry.
In fact, the machine tool industry has had many opportunities in its own development process.
Not long ago, I was exposed to a machine tool upstream enterprise. According to relevant sources, a certain machine tool group that they provided services encountered great operational difficulties in 2012. Not only did thousands of contract workers were dismissed from work, but the company started to work seriously. A large number of suppliers were told at the end of the year that they would only receive a receivable if they received a 25% discount. The service-providing company was delayed in receiving the service due to the inability to accept the service discount. In fact, not only the machine tool industry, but the entire equipment manufacturing industry has been struggling in 2012. However, this seems to be only a qualitative one, and it is not ugly in quantitative data.
According to the statistics of China Machinery Industry Federation, from January to December 2012, China's machine tool industry achieved a total industrial output value of 798.515 billion yuan, an increase of 12.73%; completed sales value of 775.496 billion yuan, an increase of 12.25%; production and sales rate of 97.11%.
In 2012, the export value of China's machine tool industry was 43.637 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.79%. Compared with the same period of last year, the growth rate decreased by 8.42 percentage points. Statistics show that the growth rate of sales value of sales of machine tools in China is more obvious. Among them, the growth rate of cutting tool manufacturing and metal cutting machine tool manufacturing industry accounted for a large decline, compared with the same period in 2011, the growth rate fell by 31.18 and 15.28 percentage points respectively.
I believe that there will not be too many people who can clearly interpret the logical relationship between the above data. Because it seems that 2011 is like a high-growth year. If you push it again, it will only make people more confused.
Aside from these, a market of 800 billion yuan cannot be considered small.
Development model is free from the mainstream
After decades of hard work, China's machine tool industry has experienced different stages of development such as “18 Lohanâ€, state-owned enterprise reform, “grasping big and smallâ€, and building “aircraft carrierâ€. Now it has become the world's largest machine tool production system. However, in terms of technical route, organizational structure and development philosophy, there has been no substantial change for a long time. It should be said that the main capacity resources of the domestic machine tool industry have long been free from the mainstream of the development of the global machine tool industry. Focusing on the individual needs of users, professional and lean organizational structure, unremitting innovation and other characteristics, more are reflected in private enterprises. Although, they only occupy a very small amount of public resources.
The intersection of information technology and machine tool manufacturing technology made the world's first CNC lathe born in the United States in the 1950s. This marks the entry of the machine tool manufacturing industry into the era of CNC. China also developed the first CNC machine tool in the 1960s. Since then, after the introduction of numerical control technology during the "Sixth Five-Year Plan" period, the "scientific and technological research" of organizing digestion and absorption and pursuing autonomy during the "Seventh Five-Year Plan" period, including the recent "04 special project" and other actions. It should be said that the state attaches great importance to the numerical control of machine tools. To a certain extent, China's numerical control technology and numerical control industry have also achieved considerable results, at least from the statistics of statistics can be proved. For example, from 1998 to 2004, the annual average growth rate of domestic CNC machine tool production and consumption reached 39.3% and 34.9%, respectively.
In fact, there is no need to be complacent about the above growth data. This is actually the result of a natural evolution of production levels. Over the past 30 years, the amount of resources invested by the parties in developing CNC technology has been countless. But what about the results? In the opinion of some industry authorities, there is currently no set of CNC systems in the country. This may be the result of the so-called diminishing marginal effect.
The National Science and Technology Major Project of “High-grade and Basic Manufacturing Equipment†was put into operation in 2009. The question is, in the course of specific operations, whether it can change the pattern that proved to be inefficient or even failed in the past, so that relatively limited resources can play a greater role, rather than the "Tang Tang meat" that is thought-provoking. If this is not the case, the investment of more resources will be difficult to play, and it will be used by those enterprises that still have institutional advantages at present to achieve the purpose of whitewashing performance.
Not changing the result will only be worse
In the face of a changing situation, change seems to be necessary. Of course, change requires a price, but it should not be a reason to reject the change. Because the result of not changing may be worse.
The choice of Fain CNC is to “go out†and open up regional markets such as Southeast Asia, India and Africa.
Huadong CNC actively seeks to replenish capital, plans to issue 50 million shares, plans to raise 320 million yuan to repay bank loans, and plans to purchase high-quality machine tool manufacturing resources to enhance operational capabilities.
Kunming Machine Tool will develop into high-end precision manufacturing as a future focus, while actively increasing exports.
Shenyang Machine Tool Co., Ltd. said that it will promote the product structure adjustment of medium and high-end CNC machine tools, enhance its independent research and development capabilities, and focus on expanding overseas business in Germany.
It should be said that the market is forced to require companies to make corresponding strategic adjustments to adapt to changes in the situation. However, whether these ways of seeking change can play a positive role, it will take time to test.
Institutional economics believes that the industrial form formed by a region is directly related to its social ecological structure. In this sense, if you ignore the conditions, easily give up the business that can be controlled, and get involved in areas beyond your own capabilities, you may face greater risks. Especially for those state-owned enterprises with huge volume. The reason for this is not complicated. At the moment, all aspects are advocating positive innovation, but it is difficult for people to truly feel the existence of innovation. Because innovation is also a condition. There is no mechanism for innovation, no good social mechanism for innovation, and innovation can only be empty talk. In this sense, there is still a long way to go before the domestic machine tool industry changes its living conditions.
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