Since the outbreak of the financial crisis in the second half of 2008, the world economy has fallen sharply, and the international market demand has shrunk severely. China's foreign trade has encountered unprecedented difficulties. Due to the lag effect, the import and export of machine tool industry has only seen a significant downward trend in the fourth quarter of 2008. As the growth rate in the first half of the year was relatively fast, the year-on-year growth of exports in 2008 was still 37.1%, and the year-on-year growth of imports was 4.4%. In 2009, the import and export volume of all products in the industry plummeted at a double-digit rate, the largest decline in a decade. In this context, China's import and export of machine tools show that the export of processing centers is getting better, the share of exports to Asia is increasing, the proportion of export of cutting tools is increasing, the proportion of imported machine tools by means of equipment investment and trade is decreasing, and the import of European machine tools is growing against the trend. New features.
According to customs statistics, the total import and export of machine tools from January to November was US$12.93 billion, down 27.9% year-on-year. Among them, the total export value was 4.23 billion US dollars, down 35.7% year-on-year; the total import value was 8.7 billion US dollars, down 23.4% year-on-year. The import and export deficit was 4.46 billion US dollars, down 6.4% year-on-year.
From 37% in 2008 to 36% in 2009, the year-on-year growth rate of exports of products across the industry formed a growth rate of 73 percentage points. This shows the serious impact of the financial crisis on the export of machine tool products in China. In January 2009, the export volume of the whole industry fell sharply to -20.5% year-on-year, and showed a monthly decline. The export volume in the first five months decreased to -35.9% year-on-year, and the following months have been at -36%. A narrow adjustment between -38%. Among them, the export of metal processing machine tools continued to decline. From January to November, the total export value of metal processing machine tools was 1.26 billion US dollars, down 35% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 65 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. However, compared with other sub-sectors, the export volume of metal processing machine tools has dropped slightly. Judging from the monthly export volume, the industry's exports throughout the year have basically remained at a low level and slowly rising. The monthly export volume of products of the whole industry has been increasing continuously since May. In September, it reached the highest export value of 460 million US dollars in the whole year. It fell slightly in October and rebounded to 440 million US dollars in November. At the same time, the monthly decline in monthly exports in the past five months has narrowed month by month, showing a slow upward trend, and the downward trend of exports has been initially contained.
According to the analysis of the machine tool industry association, the main reason for the gradual narrowing of the monthly export volume decline is that the adjustment of the national export product tax rebate policy has gradually appeared to support the export; second, the export declined sharply in the same period last year, and the base was low.
From the perspective of imports, the international financial crisis has had a certain impact on market demand. In 2009, the import volume of China's machine tool products decreased sharply. The total import value of the first 11 months was 8.7 billion US dollars, down 23.4% year-on-year, showing a rapid decline year-on-year. Increase the trend. Among them, the import of metal processing machine tools, which accounted for more than 60% of the import value of the machine tool industry, was slightly larger than that of the industry as a whole. The total import volume from January to November was US$5.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of -23.9%. In January 2009, the import value increased by -14.4% year-on-year. From January to March, the cumulative value decreased to -6.6%. Since April, it has shown a downward trend again. In October, the total import value has dropped to the lowest point of the year, -24.3%. The cumulative decline in November was slightly narrowed. In addition, the monthly import volume of all-industry products in 2009 climbed to more than 900 million US dollars in June and September. In October, it quickly fell to the lowest value of 630 million US dollars in the year, and rebounded to 810 million US dollars in November, close to the same period of last year. Level. The monthly import volume for the whole year showed a zigzag fluctuation year-on-year. In 2009, the import of China's machine tool products fluctuated greatly and showed an unstable state.
Changes in product export structure In 2009, China's metal processing machine tool exports showed no negative growth for many years. The decline in export value was greater than the decline in product export volume, and the average price of machine tool exports decreased. In the case of unfavorable overall export of machine tools, the export value of some CNC machine tools, such as horizontal machining center, gantry machining center, CNC milling and boring machine, CNC gantry milling machine, CNC grinding machine, CNC forging and stamping machine tools, decreased less, and the average price Significantly improved, the unit price increased by more than 35% compared with the same period of last year. The export structure of some CNC machine tools represented by machining centers is getting better, which reflects the direction of industrial export structure adjustment, but the export share of low value-added machine tools has rebounded from the previous year.
From the point of view of exporting countries, in 2009, China's major export markets for machine tools, such as Europe, the United States and Japan, experienced sharp declines. In 2008, exports to India, Brazil and Russia, which were rising rapidly, also fell at a rate of more than 40%. However, China's export of machine tools to Asian countries such as South Korea and Vietnam has declined less, and its share of machine tool exports has increased. For example, South Korea rose from the 8th place to the 3rd place in the previous year. Among the top 10 export markets in China, Asian countries and regions occupied 6 seats for the first time. The data shows that China's export of CNC machine tools to some countries and regions in South Korea and ASEAN shows a growing trend, and the grades are also increasing. With the establishment of China and the ASEAN Free Trade Area, there are great business opportunities for China's machine tool exports in the ASEAN region, which deserves attention. The export market for machine tools such as India and Brazil has achieved good results through this year's unremitting efforts. Although the impact of the crisis has dropped significantly, it is still higher than the same period in 2007.
In addition, from the product classification point of view, the increase in the export share of cutting tools has become another major feature of China's machine tool exports in 2009. Customs data shows that the effectiveness of China's export tax rebate policy has emerged. In the overall decline in the export of machine tools, the export value of cutting tools decreased the least year-on-year, from -15% in January-November, 20% higher than the export value of products in the whole industry. At the same time, the share of cutting tool exports increased from 17% in the same period last year to 22.5%, rising to the top of the top ten categories of machine tools.
The rapid growth of general trade imports Over the years, machine tools imported by foreign-invested enterprises in the form of equipment investment and trade have accounted for more than half of China's machine tool imports. After the financial crisis, the machine tools imported by this method were significantly reduced. Taking CNC machine tools as an example, in the first half of 2009, the value of CNC machine tools imported by foreign-invested enterprises as investment trade decreased by 26.2% year-on-year, and the proportion of imports of CNC machine tools decreased by 10%, while the numerical control machine tools imported by general trade were fast. The growth trend is 31.2% year-on-year, and its share is close to 50%. According to the analysis of relevant personnel of China Machine Tool Association, the reasons are that the economic decline of various countries and the decline of foreign investment; the second is that the state has adjusted the preferential tax policies for foreign-invested imported equipment, and to some extent reduced the import of machine tools as equipment investment.
From the perspective of importing countries, the import of machine tools in Europe has increased against the trend, and German machine tools have become China's largest importer. Japan, Germany and Taiwan have always been the main sources of imports for metal processing machines in China. For many years, China’s machine tools imported from Japan have accounted for more than one-third of the total machine tool imports. In 2009, China's machine tool imports fell sharply. However, the number of machine tools imported by Germany, Italy, France and other European countries did not fall, and the growth rate was above 10%. Especially in Germany, since the financial crisis, machine tools sold to China have maintained a growth momentum, ranking first in the third quarter of 2009, with a share close to 30%.
In 2009, the amount of machine tools imported from Germany, Italy, France and other major European countries increased by a double-digit year-on-year. Although the total number of machine tools imported from Japan, Taiwan, and the United States is declining, the average price has also increased to varying degrees. In addition to the impact of exchange rate changes and other factors, it also shows the trend of China's machine tool market demand structure to high-end development.
Adjusting the structure is still a long-term task The financial crisis has exposed some problems in the structure of export products of China's machine tool industry. In 2009, the export of some low value-added machine tools and cutting tools in China increased significantly, and the number of individual low-end machine tools exported increased rapidly, and the speed was higher than the increase in exports. Therefore, industry enterprises should continue to work hard to adjust the structure of export products, further consolidate the achievements of the whole industry in optimizing the structure of export products this year, and avoid further expansion of the export share of “two high and one capital†products.
At the same time, with the development of the economy, environmental protection issues have become a hot spot in the world. The Copenhagen Climate Conference, which ended not long ago, has made the "low-carbon economy" the theme of current economic and social development. Green barriers built by environmental protection in some developed countries in the world have undoubtedly increased the difficulty of access to the international market. Products that pollute the environment and energy-intensive products are either rejected or heavily taxed. Therefore, the research and application of low-carbon economy and green manufacturing technology is the direction of future economic development and the basis for products to enter the international market. The people of the association suggest that enterprises in the machine tool industry should be highly valued and take corresponding measures as soon as possible.
At present, China is negotiating with many countries and regions to sign a free trade zone agreement, which will promote the expansion of bilateral and multilateral economic and trade cooperation. On January 1, 2010, the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area Agreement entered into force. Since ASEAN has signed free trade zone agreements in Japan, South Korea, India and other countries, the products invested by Chinese companies in ASEAN can also enjoy the preferential tariff treatment of the free trade zones of these countries in ASEAN, and thus sell them to the wider international market.
In this context, the association suggested that the export of machine tool enterprises should make full use of RMB settlement in conditional areas, which will help enterprises avoid exchange rate risks and reduce trade costs. It is understood that the recent renminbi trade settlement as a pilot, the Hong Kong and Macao region has expanded to many ASEAN countries. In the next three years, RMB settlement will also be realized in other Asian economies. At the same time, bilateral trade with emerging markets such as the Middle East and South America will also tend to settle in RMB.
At the same time, the association also suggested that there is still no obvious signs of recovery in the international market. Enterprises should pay close attention to the development trend of the developed economies in Europe, the United States and Japan, and consolidate the traditional export market. At the same time, we will target emerging export markets with development potential in Eastern Europe and other parts of Asia, three other countries in the BRIC countries, and the five countries of VISTA.
Exports are expected to stop falling in 2010. The financial crisis has curbed the rapid growth of China's machine tool industry for many years. At present, the international economic situation has not seen a marked improvement, and the foreign trade market of China's machine tool industry has not yet got rid of the downturn. From the perspective of China's import and export in the first 11 months, the signs of import recovery have appeared, but they are still not stable; imports fluctuate greatly. It is estimated that the total import and export of machine tool products in 2009 will be 14 billion to 14.5 billion US dollars; the total export value will fall from 7.1 billion US dollars in the previous year to 4.6 billion US dollars, of which the export of metal processing machine tools will be about 1.4 billion US dollars; It fell below $10 billion to $9.5 billion, of which about $5.8 billion was imported from metalworking machines.
In addition, there are indications that the global economy will gradually recover in 2010 as the role of national economic stimulus policies gradually emerges. If there are no major unfavorable factors, the world's machine tool market in 2010 will gradually improve. China's machine tool products and metal processing machine tools are expected to rebound and rebound. It is expected that there will be a recovery single-digit growth year-on-year. With the launch of 16 major science and technology projects and the implementation of the three-year adjustment and revitalization plan, the demand for high-end CNC machine tools will inevitably expand. It is expected that China's machine tool products and metal processing machine tools will have a small increase in imports in 2010.
According to customs statistics, the total import and export of machine tools from January to November was US$12.93 billion, down 27.9% year-on-year. Among them, the total export value was 4.23 billion US dollars, down 35.7% year-on-year; the total import value was 8.7 billion US dollars, down 23.4% year-on-year. The import and export deficit was 4.46 billion US dollars, down 6.4% year-on-year.
From 37% in 2008 to 36% in 2009, the year-on-year growth rate of exports of products across the industry formed a growth rate of 73 percentage points. This shows the serious impact of the financial crisis on the export of machine tool products in China. In January 2009, the export volume of the whole industry fell sharply to -20.5% year-on-year, and showed a monthly decline. The export volume in the first five months decreased to -35.9% year-on-year, and the following months have been at -36%. A narrow adjustment between -38%. Among them, the export of metal processing machine tools continued to decline. From January to November, the total export value of metal processing machine tools was 1.26 billion US dollars, down 35% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 65 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. However, compared with other sub-sectors, the export volume of metal processing machine tools has dropped slightly. Judging from the monthly export volume, the industry's exports throughout the year have basically remained at a low level and slowly rising. The monthly export volume of products of the whole industry has been increasing continuously since May. In September, it reached the highest export value of 460 million US dollars in the whole year. It fell slightly in October and rebounded to 440 million US dollars in November. At the same time, the monthly decline in monthly exports in the past five months has narrowed month by month, showing a slow upward trend, and the downward trend of exports has been initially contained.
According to the analysis of the machine tool industry association, the main reason for the gradual narrowing of the monthly export volume decline is that the adjustment of the national export product tax rebate policy has gradually appeared to support the export; second, the export declined sharply in the same period last year, and the base was low.
From the perspective of imports, the international financial crisis has had a certain impact on market demand. In 2009, the import volume of China's machine tool products decreased sharply. The total import value of the first 11 months was 8.7 billion US dollars, down 23.4% year-on-year, showing a rapid decline year-on-year. Increase the trend. Among them, the import of metal processing machine tools, which accounted for more than 60% of the import value of the machine tool industry, was slightly larger than that of the industry as a whole. The total import volume from January to November was US$5.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of -23.9%. In January 2009, the import value increased by -14.4% year-on-year. From January to March, the cumulative value decreased to -6.6%. Since April, it has shown a downward trend again. In October, the total import value has dropped to the lowest point of the year, -24.3%. The cumulative decline in November was slightly narrowed. In addition, the monthly import volume of all-industry products in 2009 climbed to more than 900 million US dollars in June and September. In October, it quickly fell to the lowest value of 630 million US dollars in the year, and rebounded to 810 million US dollars in November, close to the same period of last year. Level. The monthly import volume for the whole year showed a zigzag fluctuation year-on-year. In 2009, the import of China's machine tool products fluctuated greatly and showed an unstable state.
Changes in product export structure In 2009, China's metal processing machine tool exports showed no negative growth for many years. The decline in export value was greater than the decline in product export volume, and the average price of machine tool exports decreased. In the case of unfavorable overall export of machine tools, the export value of some CNC machine tools, such as horizontal machining center, gantry machining center, CNC milling and boring machine, CNC gantry milling machine, CNC grinding machine, CNC forging and stamping machine tools, decreased less, and the average price Significantly improved, the unit price increased by more than 35% compared with the same period of last year. The export structure of some CNC machine tools represented by machining centers is getting better, which reflects the direction of industrial export structure adjustment, but the export share of low value-added machine tools has rebounded from the previous year.
From the point of view of exporting countries, in 2009, China's major export markets for machine tools, such as Europe, the United States and Japan, experienced sharp declines. In 2008, exports to India, Brazil and Russia, which were rising rapidly, also fell at a rate of more than 40%. However, China's export of machine tools to Asian countries such as South Korea and Vietnam has declined less, and its share of machine tool exports has increased. For example, South Korea rose from the 8th place to the 3rd place in the previous year. Among the top 10 export markets in China, Asian countries and regions occupied 6 seats for the first time. The data shows that China's export of CNC machine tools to some countries and regions in South Korea and ASEAN shows a growing trend, and the grades are also increasing. With the establishment of China and the ASEAN Free Trade Area, there are great business opportunities for China's machine tool exports in the ASEAN region, which deserves attention. The export market for machine tools such as India and Brazil has achieved good results through this year's unremitting efforts. Although the impact of the crisis has dropped significantly, it is still higher than the same period in 2007.
In addition, from the product classification point of view, the increase in the export share of cutting tools has become another major feature of China's machine tool exports in 2009. Customs data shows that the effectiveness of China's export tax rebate policy has emerged. In the overall decline in the export of machine tools, the export value of cutting tools decreased the least year-on-year, from -15% in January-November, 20% higher than the export value of products in the whole industry. At the same time, the share of cutting tool exports increased from 17% in the same period last year to 22.5%, rising to the top of the top ten categories of machine tools.
The rapid growth of general trade imports Over the years, machine tools imported by foreign-invested enterprises in the form of equipment investment and trade have accounted for more than half of China's machine tool imports. After the financial crisis, the machine tools imported by this method were significantly reduced. Taking CNC machine tools as an example, in the first half of 2009, the value of CNC machine tools imported by foreign-invested enterprises as investment trade decreased by 26.2% year-on-year, and the proportion of imports of CNC machine tools decreased by 10%, while the numerical control machine tools imported by general trade were fast. The growth trend is 31.2% year-on-year, and its share is close to 50%. According to the analysis of relevant personnel of China Machine Tool Association, the reasons are that the economic decline of various countries and the decline of foreign investment; the second is that the state has adjusted the preferential tax policies for foreign-invested imported equipment, and to some extent reduced the import of machine tools as equipment investment.
From the perspective of importing countries, the import of machine tools in Europe has increased against the trend, and German machine tools have become China's largest importer. Japan, Germany and Taiwan have always been the main sources of imports for metal processing machines in China. For many years, China’s machine tools imported from Japan have accounted for more than one-third of the total machine tool imports. In 2009, China's machine tool imports fell sharply. However, the number of machine tools imported by Germany, Italy, France and other European countries did not fall, and the growth rate was above 10%. Especially in Germany, since the financial crisis, machine tools sold to China have maintained a growth momentum, ranking first in the third quarter of 2009, with a share close to 30%.
In 2009, the amount of machine tools imported from Germany, Italy, France and other major European countries increased by a double-digit year-on-year. Although the total number of machine tools imported from Japan, Taiwan, and the United States is declining, the average price has also increased to varying degrees. In addition to the impact of exchange rate changes and other factors, it also shows the trend of China's machine tool market demand structure to high-end development.
Adjusting the structure is still a long-term task The financial crisis has exposed some problems in the structure of export products of China's machine tool industry. In 2009, the export of some low value-added machine tools and cutting tools in China increased significantly, and the number of individual low-end machine tools exported increased rapidly, and the speed was higher than the increase in exports. Therefore, industry enterprises should continue to work hard to adjust the structure of export products, further consolidate the achievements of the whole industry in optimizing the structure of export products this year, and avoid further expansion of the export share of “two high and one capital†products.
At the same time, with the development of the economy, environmental protection issues have become a hot spot in the world. The Copenhagen Climate Conference, which ended not long ago, has made the "low-carbon economy" the theme of current economic and social development. Green barriers built by environmental protection in some developed countries in the world have undoubtedly increased the difficulty of access to the international market. Products that pollute the environment and energy-intensive products are either rejected or heavily taxed. Therefore, the research and application of low-carbon economy and green manufacturing technology is the direction of future economic development and the basis for products to enter the international market. The people of the association suggest that enterprises in the machine tool industry should be highly valued and take corresponding measures as soon as possible.
At present, China is negotiating with many countries and regions to sign a free trade zone agreement, which will promote the expansion of bilateral and multilateral economic and trade cooperation. On January 1, 2010, the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area Agreement entered into force. Since ASEAN has signed free trade zone agreements in Japan, South Korea, India and other countries, the products invested by Chinese companies in ASEAN can also enjoy the preferential tariff treatment of the free trade zones of these countries in ASEAN, and thus sell them to the wider international market.
In this context, the association suggested that the export of machine tool enterprises should make full use of RMB settlement in conditional areas, which will help enterprises avoid exchange rate risks and reduce trade costs. It is understood that the recent renminbi trade settlement as a pilot, the Hong Kong and Macao region has expanded to many ASEAN countries. In the next three years, RMB settlement will also be realized in other Asian economies. At the same time, bilateral trade with emerging markets such as the Middle East and South America will also tend to settle in RMB.
At the same time, the association also suggested that there is still no obvious signs of recovery in the international market. Enterprises should pay close attention to the development trend of the developed economies in Europe, the United States and Japan, and consolidate the traditional export market. At the same time, we will target emerging export markets with development potential in Eastern Europe and other parts of Asia, three other countries in the BRIC countries, and the five countries of VISTA.
Exports are expected to stop falling in 2010. The financial crisis has curbed the rapid growth of China's machine tool industry for many years. At present, the international economic situation has not seen a marked improvement, and the foreign trade market of China's machine tool industry has not yet got rid of the downturn. From the perspective of China's import and export in the first 11 months, the signs of import recovery have appeared, but they are still not stable; imports fluctuate greatly. It is estimated that the total import and export of machine tool products in 2009 will be 14 billion to 14.5 billion US dollars; the total export value will fall from 7.1 billion US dollars in the previous year to 4.6 billion US dollars, of which the export of metal processing machine tools will be about 1.4 billion US dollars; It fell below $10 billion to $9.5 billion, of which about $5.8 billion was imported from metalworking machines.
In addition, there are indications that the global economy will gradually recover in 2010 as the role of national economic stimulus policies gradually emerges. If there are no major unfavorable factors, the world's machine tool market in 2010 will gradually improve. China's machine tool products and metal processing machine tools are expected to rebound and rebound. It is expected that there will be a recovery single-digit growth year-on-year. With the launch of 16 major science and technology projects and the implementation of the three-year adjustment and revitalization plan, the demand for high-end CNC machine tools will inevitably expand. It is expected that China's machine tool products and metal processing machine tools will have a small increase in imports in 2010.
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