In an article published in the "Qiushi" magazine, Vice Minister of Commerce Zhong Shan said in order to speed up the transformation of foreign trade development mode, it is necessary to maintain the continuity and stability of the export tax rebate policy and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate. Recently, Vice Minister of Commerce Jiang Yaoping also said that China's foreign trade policy will be stable in the second half of the year, but it is still possible to adjust the export tax rebates for some energy-intensive and highly polluting products.
In this regard, experts interviewed by reporters yesterday believe that due to China's current implementation of the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", the distance between energy conservation and emission reduction is still far away, and the heavy industry may have the pressure to continue to lower. However, considering that it is only in the middle of last month, it has started to cancel the export tax rebate for some products, and there are many uncertainties in the current foreign trade situation. It is unlikely that it will continue to be launched in the short term.
Liu Zhiyi, a macroeconomic analyst at CITIC Jiantou, believes that the just-released July foreign trade data shows that although China’s exports have hit a new high in a single month, both the chain and the year-on-year have shown a slowdown. In the future, China's exports are still affected by the triple pressure of global destocking, the euro zone debt crisis, and China's restructuring. Therefore, the foreign trade policy in the second half of the year still needs to be stable.
Liu Zhiyi also believes that during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, China's unit GDP energy consumption must be reduced by 20%. This year is the last year of the “11th Five-Year Planâ€. Although the GDP and other indicators have been completed, the energy conservation and emission reduction targets are still far away. At present, the energy consumption per unit of GDP has only completed 71.9% of the tasks. Therefore, in order to eliminate backward production capacity, it is inevitable to shut down and transfer.
Zhong Shan said in the article that China's foreign trade is currently facing problems such as a marked increase in trade frictions, less comparative benefits and a more prominent trade imbalance. "Long-term trade imbalance is neither China's policy choice nor the sustainable development of foreign trade. The development of foreign trade must be proactive."
Liu Zhiyi believes that from the above-mentioned management's statement, China can no longer make profits abroad, and we must continue to deepen structural adjustment. Second, in the context of tightening real estate policies, land transfer fees have fallen sharply. The government is in urgent need of funds. Therefore, plastics, pharmaceuticals, steel, cement, ceramics and other industries may continue to downward pressure.
Liu Zhiyi believes that compared with heavy industry, because light industry absorbs more labor, if it is adjusted, it will have a greater impact on employment. Therefore, heavy industry may become the first choice. However, it is not excluded that light industry will also be included in the scope of reducing subsidies. Such as textiles, clothing, household appliances, toys, electronic information products.
Li Jian, a researcher at the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that government departments will make fine adjustments according to the implementation of national energy conservation and emission reduction, as well as the export of "two high and one capital" products.
"Of course, considering the start of a new round of measures to reduce the export tax rebate rate on July 15, at the same time, considering the complexity of the export situation in the second half of the year, it is unlikely that it will continue to be launched in the short term," Liu Zhiyi said.
It is reported that the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued the "Notice on Cancellation of Export Tax Rebates for Certain Commodities", clearly stimulating 406 tax numbers including some steel products, non-ferrous metal processing materials and chemical products from July 15. The export tax rebate for products. The export tax rebate adjustment is concentrated in the field of high energy consumption, high pollution and resource products.
In this regard, experts interviewed by reporters yesterday believe that due to China's current implementation of the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", the distance between energy conservation and emission reduction is still far away, and the heavy industry may have the pressure to continue to lower. However, considering that it is only in the middle of last month, it has started to cancel the export tax rebate for some products, and there are many uncertainties in the current foreign trade situation. It is unlikely that it will continue to be launched in the short term.
Liu Zhiyi, a macroeconomic analyst at CITIC Jiantou, believes that the just-released July foreign trade data shows that although China’s exports have hit a new high in a single month, both the chain and the year-on-year have shown a slowdown. In the future, China's exports are still affected by the triple pressure of global destocking, the euro zone debt crisis, and China's restructuring. Therefore, the foreign trade policy in the second half of the year still needs to be stable.
Liu Zhiyi also believes that during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, China's unit GDP energy consumption must be reduced by 20%. This year is the last year of the “11th Five-Year Planâ€. Although the GDP and other indicators have been completed, the energy conservation and emission reduction targets are still far away. At present, the energy consumption per unit of GDP has only completed 71.9% of the tasks. Therefore, in order to eliminate backward production capacity, it is inevitable to shut down and transfer.
Zhong Shan said in the article that China's foreign trade is currently facing problems such as a marked increase in trade frictions, less comparative benefits and a more prominent trade imbalance. "Long-term trade imbalance is neither China's policy choice nor the sustainable development of foreign trade. The development of foreign trade must be proactive."
Liu Zhiyi believes that from the above-mentioned management's statement, China can no longer make profits abroad, and we must continue to deepen structural adjustment. Second, in the context of tightening real estate policies, land transfer fees have fallen sharply. The government is in urgent need of funds. Therefore, plastics, pharmaceuticals, steel, cement, ceramics and other industries may continue to downward pressure.
Liu Zhiyi believes that compared with heavy industry, because light industry absorbs more labor, if it is adjusted, it will have a greater impact on employment. Therefore, heavy industry may become the first choice. However, it is not excluded that light industry will also be included in the scope of reducing subsidies. Such as textiles, clothing, household appliances, toys, electronic information products.
Li Jian, a researcher at the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that government departments will make fine adjustments according to the implementation of national energy conservation and emission reduction, as well as the export of "two high and one capital" products.
"Of course, considering the start of a new round of measures to reduce the export tax rebate rate on July 15, at the same time, considering the complexity of the export situation in the second half of the year, it is unlikely that it will continue to be launched in the short term," Liu Zhiyi said.
It is reported that the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued the "Notice on Cancellation of Export Tax Rebates for Certain Commodities", clearly stimulating 406 tax numbers including some steel products, non-ferrous metal processing materials and chemical products from July 15. The export tax rebate for products. The export tax rebate adjustment is concentrated in the field of high energy consumption, high pollution and resource products.
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