Year-end inventory 2013 world economy eight key words

In 2013, the world economic situation will change and rise and fall. In detail, the big events that can touch the international market and attract the attention of global investors can be summarized into the following key words:

Mild recovery

In 2013, the global economy continued its moderate recovery in 2012. Although the growth rate of developing economies has slowed down, as a whole, its growth rate is still much faster than that of developed countries.

The International Monetary Fund [IMI] World Economic Outlook (Autumn Report) predicts that the world economic growth rate in 2013 will be 2.9%, which is less than 3.2% in 2012. The overall growth rate of emerging markets and developing economies fell from 4.9% to 4.5%, and the overall growth rate of developed economies fell from 1.5% last year to 1.2%.

Among them, the US economic growth rate dropped from 2.8% last year to 1.6%; the euro zone continued to shrink, the decline dropped slightly from 0.6% last year to 0.4%; Japan maintained a growth rate of 2%.

Exit QE

After more than half a year of policy warm-up, the Fed finally announced on December 18 that it will cut QE (quantitative easing policy) slightly from January 2014.

This policy means that the Fed will still inject a lot of money into the economy, but it will slow down slightly. But fragile emerging markets may be under pressure again as the dollar appreciates and the market deteriorates.

At the end of August this year, due to the general expectation that the Fed will withdraw from quantitative easing, there has been a phenomenon of accelerated withdrawal of funds from emerging markets. Affected by this, the Indian Rupee, Indonesian Rupiah and other exchange rates fell sharply, and the stock market also plummeted.

WTO and TTP

On December 7, after difficult consultations and mediation, the World Trade Organization (WTO) finally reached its first major agreement since 1995 at the Bali Ministerial Conference in Indonesia.

The analysis pointed out that although the achievement of the "Balinese Agreement" was inspiring, it was only a serious contraction agreement of the WTO Doha Round Agreement. It is still far from the completion of the Doha Round negotiations.

This shows that the influence of the WTO's global multilateral trading system, which is dominated by trade rules negotiations, is gradually weakening. It is replaced by bilateral, multilateral and regional trade and investment institutional arrangements that emphasize trade and investment rules negotiations.

With the strong promotion of the United States, the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement (TPP) and the transatlantic (7.05, -0.26, -3.56%) Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement (TTIP) initiated in early 2013 have made some progress.

In March and October, Japan and South Korea announced their participation in the TPP negotiations. Although the US budget deadlock and difficult negotiations with Japan have slowed down the TPP negotiations, observers believe that the negotiations are expected to close in early 2014. In addition, Europe and the United States have also conducted three rounds of negotiations on TTIP this year.

Monetary policy differentiation

Due to insufficient internal effective demand and relatively stable international commodity prices, inflation in the US and the Eurozone remained basically within the target range of 2%, and Japanese prices stopped falling, but the increase was limited.

Following Japan’s implementation of aggressive quantitative easing in April to drive down credit rates, the European Central Bank unexpectedly announced a rate cut in early November. The Fed also said that even after exiting the quantitative easing policy, the benchmark interest rate will remain close to zero for a long time.

On the contrary, inflation rates in emerging economies remain high. Despite the overall downturn in international commodity prices, consumer prices in Brazil and Russia fluctuated around a high of 6%-7% due to structural problems and the depreciation of local currency. Indian prices rose at double-digit rates for eight consecutive months. In order to prevent inflation, central banks in some emerging economies continue to raise interest rates, but the results are not good.

US government closes

Following the repeated scrutiny of the "fiscal cliff" issue in early 2013, the two parties in the US Congress in October ended up with a stalemate in the budget and debt ceiling negotiations, causing the government to "close the door" and the risk of debt default increased.

After a 16-day government "closed" state, the two parties reached a compromise plan for the October financial deadlock. However, the plan did not fundamentally bridge the differences between the two parties on the issue of deficit reduction. It only extended the government's “opening the door” and the debt ceiling time to January 15 and February 7, 2014, respectively.

The analysis believes that the future negotiations between the two parties will be more or less glued, and it is not ruled out that the risk of debt default will rise again next year and the government will “close the door”. The resulting uncertainty will once again impact market confidence and the US economic outlook.

Abenomics

After Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office, he took bold monetary easing policy, flexible fiscal policy and growth strategy as "three arrows" and proposed measures to get rid of long-term deflation of the economy. These policies are also called "Abenomics."

In the first half of the year, driven by "Abenomics", the Japanese economy experienced a long-lost "high growth." In the first two quarters, the annualized annual growth rate of GDP increased by 4.1% and 3.8% respectively.

However, driven by Abe’s fiscal stimulus policy, Japan’s government debt has exceeded 1,000 trillion yen in 2013, accounting for nearly 250% of GDP, ranking first in developed countries.

Moreover, because the “new economic growth strategy”, which is the third pillar of “Abenomics”, is difficult to reach deep-seated structural problems, Abenomics is considered to be an unsound economic stimulus policy.

In addition, whether Abe can handle the relationship between Japan and its Asian neighbors is also one of the main factors affecting the Japanese economy. If Japan’s relations with China and South Korea continue to be tense and their economic and trade relations deteriorate due to political cooling, they will also affect the growth of the Japanese economy to a certain extent.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a kind of virtual currency. It is not supplied by the central bank. It is obtained by people using computer programs to run specific algorithms. It is commonly called “mining” and is regarded as electronic gold by many fans.

Bitcoin has appreciated nearly 100 times this year. However, due to the small number of chips, the price is easily manipulated by the dealer, and there may be cases where the price rises several times in one day, and the price may fall by half in one day.

Due to the huge investment risks, mainland China, South Korea, Hong Kong, China and European financial regulators have issued announcements at the end of the year, calling on Bitcoin investors to be vigilant. In mainland China, bitcoin prices have fallen by half in a few days due to regulatory tightening.

Gold price diving

Since the beginning of 2013, the price of gold has experienced several significant downward shocks under the influence of the expected tightening of US dollar supply.

Near the end of the year, the international gold price fell again, falling below the important psychological barrier of 1,200 US dollars per ounce, creating a new low in gold prices in the past three years. It is also the first time that international gold prices have fallen year-on-year since 2000.

The prospect of gold prices is confusing. However, institutions such as Goldman Sachs, UBS, Barclays, Citigroup, Bank of America Merrill Lynch sang, and Deutsche Bank and other institutions even predicted that the price of gold would fall below $800/oz.

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