Analysis of Latest US Oil Supply and Demand

The U.S. Energy Information Administration released the US oil inventories data last week at 11:30 pm on November 30, Beijing time. The U.S. Energy Information Administration believes that as of the week ending November 25, 2011, U.S. crude oil, gasoline, and diesel oil inventories have increased.

The total amount of US refinery processing totaled 14.6 million barrels per day, a decrease of 231,000 barrels from the previous week; the refinery capacity utilization rate was 84.6%, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous week. Gasoline production in the United States decreased, with an average daily output of nearly 9.2 million barrels; distillate production rose, with an average daily production of about 4.8 million barrels.

Last week, crude oil imports from the United States averaged 9.1 million barrels per day, an increase of 742,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The total amount of gasoline imported last week was 619,000 barrels per day; the average distillate import volume was 150,000 barrels per day. In the past four weeks, US crude oil imports averaged 8.6 million barrels per day, which was 285,000 barrels higher than the same period last year.

US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding oil strategic reserves) amounted to 334.47 million barrels, an increase of 393 million barrels over the previous week, and inventory was located at the upper limit of the average range of five years; US gasoline inventories totaled 2.09847 billion barrels, an increase of 210,000 barrels over the previous week. The total amount of gasoline inventories is located in the middle of the five-year average range; stocks of new-formulated gasoline increased by 40,000 barrels, conventional gasoline stocks fell by 510,000 barrels, mixed gasoline stocks increased by 680,000 barrels, and fuel ethanol stocks decreased by 41 million barrels. Distillate stocks stood at 138.898.9 billion barrels, an increase of 5.53 million barrels from the previous week. Stocks were in the lower bound of the five-year average range, of which heating oil stocks rose by 1.83 million barrels. Propane/propylene stocks increased by 390,000 barrels. The US petroleum strategic reserve is 6.9595 billion barrels. The total US commercial inventory increased by 766 million barrels.

The average daily supply of petroleum products in the United States for the last four weeks was 18.97 million barrels, which was 0.1% lower than the same period of last year. Among them, the daily average of gasoline demand was 8.664 million barrels per day, 2.9% lower than the same period of last year, and the average daily volume of distillate oil demand was 3.965 million barrels. It was 1.4% higher than the same period last year. The daily average of kerosene-type aviation fuel demand was 6.5% higher than the same period of last year. Last week, the daily demand for gasoline in the United States was 876.9 barrels, which was 177,000 barrels higher than the previous week. The average daily demand for distillates was 3.24 million barrels, which was 82.9 million barrels lower than the previous week.

Prior to the American Petroleum Institute, the US crude oil inventories and distillate inventories increased while gasoline inventories decreased. As of November 25, 2011, the US crude oil inventory was 319.174 billion barrels, an increase of 3.439 million barrels from the previous week; gasoline inventory was 2.09394 billion barrels, a decrease of 173,000 barrels from the previous week; distillate oil stocks were 1.39467 billion barrels, an increase of 134.7. Millions of barrels; crude oil imports averaged 9.304 million barrels per day, an increase of 866,000 barrels; plant operating rate was 83.5%, an increase of 0.5% over the previous week.