Analysis of the Main Reasons for the Great Increase of Chinese Coal Imports in the First Half of the Year

In 2012, China’s coal import situation changed. Unlike in the first half of the year, the distribution companies and power companies in the coastal areas started to slash their import enthusiasm. Since July, as domestic coal prices have fallen significantly and the CIF price has been low, the northern port coal is favored by users. , Coal imports fell for the second consecutive month. In August, the import coal amounted to 20.44 million tons in the month, a decrease of 3.83 million tons from the previous month, a decrease of 15.8%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%. This was the first time since the beginning of the year that a single month had fallen. On the whole, the cumulative import of coal in the first eight months was 185 million tons, an increase of 46.3% year-on-year.

In the first half of the year, the main reasons for the significant increase in domestic coal imports were: First, due to the European debt crisis, the international coal market was in short supply, Indonesia, the Philippines, and other exporting countries were closer to the coastal areas, with obvious advantages. Australian coal prices also Low-cost advantage, impact on the domestic market. Due to the impact of the international financial crisis on the real economy, the international market has further reduced its demand for coal. In the first half of the international market, coal prices continued to be low, especially Indonesia's coal has obvious price advantages and haul distance advantages; in addition, the country lowers import tariffs. The continuous appreciation will make imported coal cheaper and more competitive. In May and June, power companies such as Yudean, Shenzhen Energy, Guodian, and Datang increased the number of imported coal, prompting domestic power companies to increase the amount of imported coal;

The second is the transformation and upgrading of energy structure. The international coal supply has increased substantially and impacted the domestic coal market. Due to the rapid growth in the supply of alternative energy sources, the domestic coal supply in the United States and other countries is relatively surplus, and it is necessary to open up the international market for surplus coal. US coal has entered the domestic market in large quantities and imported coal has seriously impacted the domestic market;

The third is the long-term inversion of international coal prices. International coal prices continued to be low, but domestic coal prices declined slowly, causing domestic and foreign coal prices to hang upside down. The biggest difference: At the beginning of May, the difference between the Australian coal and Qinhuangdao launching coal CIF price was 160 yuan per ton. The domestic coal price was obviously high, and the gap gradually narrowed in June. Coal imports mainly come from Australia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Russia, Canada, the United States, South Africa and many other countries and regions. The international coal market is in the doldrums. The spread of coal at home and abroad has widened, and the import enthusiasm of coal traders has continued to increase, which has also contributed to the continuous growth of coal imports. Large domestic coal companies have been forced to pull back the market coal prices, followed by a sharp drop in domestic coal prices. In July and August, coal imports have slowed down. In the next four months, the import volume will fall. It is expected that coal imports will reach 250 million yuan this year. Ton.