In the past two weeks, the main contract of the methanol 1301 has experienced a wide swing, with trading on the last trading day before the National Day relatively quiet, and the positions have continued to decline, closing at 2,812 yuan/ton, or 1.26%. Technically, the 60-day moving average has strong support at 2765 yuan/ton.
First, the European Union's ban on Iran's re-entry The EU banned member companies from establishing joint ventures with Iran in the field of oil and natural gas from 2010 onwards. From July 1 this year, member states have completely banned the import of oil from Iran. The EU’s current regulations prohibit investment in recent days. Iranian natural gas field. Iran now exports natural gas to the EU via Turkey. Turkey blends Iranian natural gas with natural gas from Azerbaijan and transfers it to EU member states. At this stage, the EU is seeking to import natural gas via Turkey to reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas. Stopping imports of natural gas from Iran may harm Turkish interests. The ban imposed by the Iranian nuclear issue has emerged one after another. This will cause the entire coastal methanol import pattern to quietly change. It will gradually shift from being highly dependent on imports from the Middle East to combining imports with domestic trade, and the proportion will be gradually adjusted.
Second, the coastal areas are weak, and the spot market in the mainland is at the end of September. In the west of China, the methanol inventory is 37,000 tons, and the total inventory in southern China is around 140,000 tons. It is estimated that the total port area in Hong Kong will be around 30,000-30,000 tons in September, about 120,000 tons in South China, and 180,000 tons in East China. The increase in the volume of ports will make it difficult for the pressure on the supply of methanol in the coastal areas to ease in the short term.
Prior to the National Day, the domestic methanol market started at 50.9%, and the start-up load in the northwest region was 57.9%. After the National Day, some large-scale installations in the northwest face the maintenance and repair before winter, and the start-up load will be reduced.
On the whole, the trend of methanol prices in the coastal and inland regions will continue to show differentiation. The mainland is strong and the coast is relatively weak. At the end of September, the methanol price in the spot market was expressed as 2,750-2,900 yuan/ton in coastal areas, 2,600-2,870 yuan/ton in Shandong, 2,550-2,800 yuan/ton in North China, and 2,630-2,700 yuan/ton in Henan. After the National Day, the spot price of methanol in Lunan Region was around RMB 2,620/ton, which was RMB 50 higher than before the holiday and there will still be some room for growth.
Third, the new coal chemical industry to open the demand for methanol With the traditional domestic consumption of methanol, such as formaldehyde, acetic acid and other industries affected by real estate regulatory policies and other factors, production growth has slowed. The emerging applications such as methanol fuels, methanol to olefins and other industries are rapidly developing under the gap between oil supply and demand.
At present, there are a total of four domestically produced methanol-to-olefins enterprises, including Shenhua Baotou's 600,000-ton olefin plant, Shenhua Ning Coal's 500,000-ton olefin plant, Datang's 460,000-ton olefins, and Zhongyuan's 200,000-ton olefin plant. In the first half of the year, the production of methanol to olefins was approximately 600,000 tons, with a total consumption of 1.677 million tons of methanol. Large-scale domestic devices began to enter commercial operation, indicating that methanol to olefins will become an important direction for downstream applications of methanol.
At present, the market gap of ethylene and propylene in China is relatively large, and the continuous rise in oil prices has limited the development of the production of low-carbon olefins on the petrochemical route. The methanol-to-olefin technology uses China's relatively affluent coal resources as raw materials, and its advantages are very obvious. It is expected that during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the demand for methanol, led by coal chemical industry, will become a new bright spot.
After the double festivals, the market ushered in the traditional "silver ten" consumer peak season. However, subject to the entire macroeconomic environment, spot dealers are cautious about purchasing on demand. It is expected that in the coming week, under the temporary support of downstream restocking demand, the mainland methanol will lead the upward movement of spot prices, and the price is expected to oscillate within the range of RMB 2810-2850/ton.
First, the European Union's ban on Iran's re-entry The EU banned member companies from establishing joint ventures with Iran in the field of oil and natural gas from 2010 onwards. From July 1 this year, member states have completely banned the import of oil from Iran. The EU’s current regulations prohibit investment in recent days. Iranian natural gas field. Iran now exports natural gas to the EU via Turkey. Turkey blends Iranian natural gas with natural gas from Azerbaijan and transfers it to EU member states. At this stage, the EU is seeking to import natural gas via Turkey to reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas. Stopping imports of natural gas from Iran may harm Turkish interests. The ban imposed by the Iranian nuclear issue has emerged one after another. This will cause the entire coastal methanol import pattern to quietly change. It will gradually shift from being highly dependent on imports from the Middle East to combining imports with domestic trade, and the proportion will be gradually adjusted.
Second, the coastal areas are weak, and the spot market in the mainland is at the end of September. In the west of China, the methanol inventory is 37,000 tons, and the total inventory in southern China is around 140,000 tons. It is estimated that the total port area in Hong Kong will be around 30,000-30,000 tons in September, about 120,000 tons in South China, and 180,000 tons in East China. The increase in the volume of ports will make it difficult for the pressure on the supply of methanol in the coastal areas to ease in the short term.
Prior to the National Day, the domestic methanol market started at 50.9%, and the start-up load in the northwest region was 57.9%. After the National Day, some large-scale installations in the northwest face the maintenance and repair before winter, and the start-up load will be reduced.
On the whole, the trend of methanol prices in the coastal and inland regions will continue to show differentiation. The mainland is strong and the coast is relatively weak. At the end of September, the methanol price in the spot market was expressed as 2,750-2,900 yuan/ton in coastal areas, 2,600-2,870 yuan/ton in Shandong, 2,550-2,800 yuan/ton in North China, and 2,630-2,700 yuan/ton in Henan. After the National Day, the spot price of methanol in Lunan Region was around RMB 2,620/ton, which was RMB 50 higher than before the holiday and there will still be some room for growth.
Third, the new coal chemical industry to open the demand for methanol With the traditional domestic consumption of methanol, such as formaldehyde, acetic acid and other industries affected by real estate regulatory policies and other factors, production growth has slowed. The emerging applications such as methanol fuels, methanol to olefins and other industries are rapidly developing under the gap between oil supply and demand.
At present, there are a total of four domestically produced methanol-to-olefins enterprises, including Shenhua Baotou's 600,000-ton olefin plant, Shenhua Ning Coal's 500,000-ton olefin plant, Datang's 460,000-ton olefins, and Zhongyuan's 200,000-ton olefin plant. In the first half of the year, the production of methanol to olefins was approximately 600,000 tons, with a total consumption of 1.677 million tons of methanol. Large-scale domestic devices began to enter commercial operation, indicating that methanol to olefins will become an important direction for downstream applications of methanol.
At present, the market gap of ethylene and propylene in China is relatively large, and the continuous rise in oil prices has limited the development of the production of low-carbon olefins on the petrochemical route. The methanol-to-olefin technology uses China's relatively affluent coal resources as raw materials, and its advantages are very obvious. It is expected that during the “12th Five-Year Plan†period, the demand for methanol, led by coal chemical industry, will become a new bright spot.
After the double festivals, the market ushered in the traditional "silver ten" consumer peak season. However, subject to the entire macroeconomic environment, spot dealers are cautious about purchasing on demand. It is expected that in the coming week, under the temporary support of downstream restocking demand, the mainland methanol will lead the upward movement of spot prices, and the price is expected to oscillate within the range of RMB 2810-2850/ton.
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