China's steel industry economy presents three major phenomena

“High growth” does not seem to describe the speed of China's steel industry. Mao Wu, chief economist of Shougang Corporation, who attended the 2011 China Steel Industry Network Annual Meeting, used the term “explosive growth”. Looking at the economic situation of China's steel industry, Mao Wu used the "three great wonders" to summarize: First, the steel output burst, while the second is thin and thick, and the third is per capita consumption. Mao Wu said that in the past 10 years, China's crude steel output and apparent consumption have increased by 500 million tons, reaching 627 million tons, accounting for 44.3% of the world. Although the iron and steel enterprises have achieved full strength, they are in front of Hebei Iron and Steel Group (2010 crude steel output of 52.86 million tons), Baosteel Group (2010 crude steel output of 44.5 million tons) and Angang Group (2010 crude steel production capacity of 40.28 million tons). The annual output of 10 million tons of crude steel can only be a "civilian" level and cannot be moved to the table. However, behind these explosive growth, the prices of raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal have skyrocketed, causing the profit margins of steel companies to be continuously compressed. “Normal developments are all about thin accumulation. For example, the US steel industry has exceeded the 100 million tons mark after years of savings. The development of the steel industry in various countries is not the case. Only China is a 'thick and thick hair'.” Mao Wu pointed out that China seems to suffer There is steel hunger, and the steel industry is very weak. In the 50 years from 1949 to 2000, China's steel stocks were only 1.94 billion tons, and in the first 10 years of the new century, China's steel production exceeded 3.8 billion tons. At present, the annual output of China's steel is six times that of the United States, and the per capita steel savings are only 1/6 of that of the United States. China's huge population is a “terrible” factor: the larger output and resources, divided by 1.3 billion people, will become a negligible small amount; the smaller demand and materials will be compared with 1.3 billion people. Multiplication will also turn into a terrible astronomical number. However, Mao Wu pointed out that steel is an exception. He pointed out that the output of China's steel has reached the order of 700 million tons, and China's per capita steel consumption is also among the highest in the world, close to 500 kilograms per person. In contrast, the world's per capita level is only 150 kilograms, and the developed countries in Europe and America are only 300 kilograms to 400 kilograms per capita. Mao Wu has always believed that the tonnage of steel can best measure the "weight" of the economy. China has stepped into the era of self-sufficiency in the era of manufacturing that satisfies food and clothing. Mao Wu called it the "Made in China" era and pointed out that in the era of "China's construction", the steel industry will be even more prosperous. Mao Wu said that the so-called "China-built" era is an era of urbanization, an era of escalation of RV consumption, and an era of infrastructure construction, which will release the demand for steel. In 2010, China's fixed asset investment rate was as high as 70%, 80% of which was invested in manufacturing, infrastructure and real estate; physical form investment was mainly in buildings and machinery and equipment, of which construction and installation projects accounted for 61%. The purchase of equipment and tools accounted for 22%. Luo Baihui, secretary-general of the International Association of Mould & Hardware Plastics Suppliers, said that since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, it has completed a splendid turn from a steel importing country to an exporting country. In recent years, the annual export volume has exceeded 40 million tons. The forefront of the world. At present, Chinese steel companies have reached world level in scale. China's crude steel production increased from 150 million tons in 2001 to 630 million tons in 2010. In 2011, crude steel output is expected to exceed 700 million tons, a record high. In 2010, there were 9 Chinese companies in the top 20 steel producers in the world. However, due to the rapid expansion of crude steel production capacity, China's imports of iron ore have also increased dramatically. In order to cope with the difficulties caused by rising prices, China plans to increase the production capacity of overseas iron ore by more than 100 million tons, and support Chinese steel enterprises to establish stable and reliable iron ore in an orderly manner in countries and regions with resource advantages and neighboring countries. , chrome ore, manganese ore, coking coal and other raw fuel supply bases and transportation security systems. At the same time, it will also accelerate the exploration of domestic iron ore resources. According to my steel statistics, as of November 25, 2011, hot rolled coils and rebars in major cities nationwide continued to be inventories: the current inventory of hot rolled coils was 4,350,400 tons, a decrease of 0.47 million tons from last week. Rebar stocks this week were 492.18 million tons, a decrease of 60,400 tons from last week. In the past one or two months, the stocks of social stocks have been in good condition, and stocks have not formed a negative factor. On December 1, Shagang introduced some product price policies in early December 2011, rebar prices remained unchanged, and hot rolled coils were lowered by RMB 100/ton. Recently, the ex-factory price adjustment of steel has stabilized. Even steel mills have started to increase the ex-factory price of steel products. On December 1, the listed price of secondary rebar of Shangang Group was raised by 50 yuan/ton. According to the quotation of 24 cities in China monitored by our steel network, the prices of rebar and hot coil in the current period have remained stable. The price of iron ore in raw materials has not changed, and coke and scrap have basically stabilized. In this issue, rating agencies have launched downgrades. Portugal and Belgium have been downgraded. The sovereign credit of all European countries has been threatened. Some big banks in the United Kingdom and the United States have been downgraded according to the new standards of Standard & Poor's. However, on the evening of November 30, the market was injected with a strong shot: the People’s Bank of China announced that it will cut the RMB deposit reserve ratio by 50 basis points from December 5; subsequently, the Fed announced that it has already entered the UK, Europe, and Canada. The six central and regional central banks in Japan and Switzerland have joined forces to agree to cut the existing US dollar swap pricing by 50 basis points on December 5. These moves have brought short-term liquidity to the market. After the previous HSBC PMI preview value fell below the line of glory, the official PMI released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing was 49.0%, down 1.4 percentage points from the previous month. This means that the economic situation continues to decline, so the move to lower the RRR should be seen as one of the measures to maintain growth. The positive impact of lowering the deposit reserve ratio is not sustainable. The future trend of bulk commodities remains highly correlated with the US dollar and the global economic environment. The steel market is still following the volatility of the market, and the weak medium- and long-term pattern is difficult to change. The steel industry has entered the low-yield era of the current domestic steel industry's loss situation, apparently with Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Vale three iron ore giant monopoly prices, macroeconomic downturn and domestic steel industry products lack of high-tech content, domestic The market supply exceeds demand and other factors have a considerable correlation. In recent years, although there have always been accusations that most of the profits of the industry have been eroded by several mining companies in the world, it is curious that domestic steel companies are still expanding in large scale. Since the investment of 4 trillion yuan in 2009 not only brought about strong demand expansion, but also caused the steel industry investment to recover again, the steel production capacity was reactivated in 2011. After a year of credit tightening and real estate regulation, the physical industries such as steel are entering the coldest winter of the year, and all links in the steel industry chain are shivering in the cold wind. In the context of falling steel prices and strong mining prices, the profitability of China's steel industry has fallen to the bottom. According to the data, the current round of steel price reduction began at the end of August, and the decline has been significantly expanded since the end of September. After the National Day, it has fallen out of control. With the plunge in steel prices, stocks have rebounded. According to China's steel spot network statistics, in September, social steel inventories rebounded for the first time after a six-month decline, and orders from many steel mills fell by 10% to 20%. Steel prices are still low, and many steel traders believe that the market situation in 2012 will not have a big improvement. Judging from the current supply and demand situation in the domestic steel market, supply exceeding demand has become a normal state, and the pattern of the buyer's market will not change. Under this "normal state" and "pattern", for steel traders, it is meager profit, no profit, and negative profits. For steel mills, it can only be operated at a low profit. The 2011 annual report issued by the Tang and Song Iron and Steel Economic Research Institute pointed out that after the steel price fell sharply in September, the upward cycle since 2009 ended, and the industry entered a low profit period. Luo Bingsheng, deputy secretary of the Party Committee of China Iron and Steel Association, recently released the data to make the industry more worried. He pointed out: "From January to October, the sales profit rate of China's large and medium-sized steel enterprises is only 2.8%, which is lower than the average profit level of China's industrial industry. The whole industry is still in a low-efficiency state. If the investment income of steel enterprises is deducted by 5.494 billion yuan. The profit of the main steel industry is actually only 63.845 billion yuan, and the sales profit rate is only 2.58%, which is far lower than the bank interest rate. Among the 77 large and medium-sized steel enterprises researched by Luo Bingsheng, even Baosteel and Baotou Steel, whose profits are at the forefront, the profit Only 352 million yuan and 322 million yuan respectively, and the loss-making enterprises have increased from 9 in September to 25, and the loss has expanded to 32.5%. The loss of 25 companies is 2.125 billion yuan. "In October, the whole industry Earnings were at the lowest level in history, and 77 large and medium-sized steel companies achieved a profit decline of 82.6% from September, only 1.375 billion yuan, and the product sales profit margin was only 0.47%. Luo Bingsheng said that the 0.47% profit rate means that the steel industry produces and sells 100 yuan of steel with a profit of only 0.47 yuan, which is much lower than the one-year deposit rate. As a capital-intensive industry, the steel industry has a debt ratio of 67%. Most of them came from bank loans. In this regard, Xu Xiangchun, director of information for “My Steel Network” explained that the market has been good in the past few years, and the over-investment in steel mills has led to overcapacity. Given that the steel industry is an important social infrastructure industry, There is no restriction on the entire industry, but only for steel projects that do not comply with industrial policies. The more control the planned output, the more expansion, high output, high cost, low efficiency. Luo Bingsheng summed up the status quo of the steel industry. He admits that the high growth of crude steel production has led to an increase in high-priced imported ore, while the oversupply has prompted domestic steel prices to fall. Therefore, the high growth of total production is the most fundamental of high-cost and low-efficiency in the whole industry. In the past 10 years, China's steel industry has experienced the expansion of the world's enviable scale. However, the extensive development model of excessive pursuit of economies of scale has also caused the industry to encounter resource and environmental bottlenecks, rapid production growth and increasing production capacity. It is a signal of excess. The industry authorities pointed out that it is the contradiction of overcapacity in steel that caused the price of China's steel market to fluctuate drastically. In addition, the slowdown in economic growth caused the steel consumption to cool down. The steel industry fell into a low-profit or negative-profit era after 10 years of Huazhang. The guiding document for the development of China's steel industry during the 12th Five-Year Plan period - "The 12th Five-Year Development Plan for the Iron and Steel Industry" (referred to as "Planning") has been officially released. "Planning" for variety quality, energy conservation and emission reduction, industry Layout, resource security, technological innovation, industrial concentration, etc. 6 The specific targets were put forward. The lessons learned from the previous industrial policies that have repeatedly failed due to market reality, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's plan weakened the color of administrative control and strengthened the concept of policy guidance, aiming to achieve steel during the 11th Five-Year Plan period. The industry's unfinished business. "In the past 10 years, the industrial policy formulation department has underestimated the economic development. On the basis of seriously underestimating demand, the state has made controlled developments in steel production capacity, but the more it controls. An industry insider commented. The first article of the "Steel Industry Development Policy" promulgated in July 2005 puts forward that "the steel production capacity maintains a reasonable scale", but the expansion of the domestic steel industry has not slowed down, "11th Five-Year Plan" China's crude steel output increased from 350 million tons to 630 million tons, an average annual growth rate of 12.2%. After the global financial crisis broke out, China introduced the "Steel Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan" in early 2009, in an effort to restore the total amount to A reasonable level. This plan clearly sets the crude steel output of the year at 460 million tons. However, in 2009, China's actual crude steel output reached 570 million tons. As the third programmatic document of the steel industry, the Plan continues. While strictly controlling capacity expansion as the basic principle, the quantitative concept of total steel volume was abolished, and the description was only “to make the total amount of steel basically meet the needs of national economic development.” Despite weakening the administrative color, many The industry believes that the extensive development of the steel industry and the structural deficiencies will still be difficult to resolve in the short term. The steel industry is welcoming "foreign capital". Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology clearly stated in its interpretation of the "12th Five-Year Development Plan for the Iron and Steel Industry" that foreign top steel companies are encouraged to invest in domestic steel companies. Industry experts said that this policy It is good news for China's steel industry and is conducive to improving the technical content and profitability of China's steel industry. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said in an interpretation document that we must dare to attract foreign top steel companies to invest in domestic steel companies and attract them to participate in major projects. Rapidly improve our management and development capabilities. In this regard, Luo Baihui, secretary general of the International Association of Mould & Hardware Plastics Industry Suppliers, said that the country now supports energy conservation and emission reduction. If foreign investors participate in Chinese steel companies, bringing good technology into the market will benefit steel. In addition, some foreign-funded steel groups have overseas high-quality mines. At present, China's iron ore dependence is as high as 65%, attracting foreign shares to help protect resources. In addition, foreign participation in the steel industry is also beneficial to the steel industry. Production Upgrade; and it is possible to promote the restructuring of the steel sector, and it is more likely to be reorganized for those large steel companies with strong strength and those that need comprehensive reform. However, after the introduction of the policy, it is necessary to look at its supporting measures. This will be a long and complicated process. Dou Liwei, Dean of the Economic Management Research Institute of Anshan Iron and Steel Company, analyzed the macro situation of China's steel industry. He said that as the world's largest crude steel producer, China's steel industry still has Great development potential. This is based on the experience of Japan and Germany to complete industrial construction. The per capita steel and the amount of steel used per square kilometer are far greater than the current figures in China. From this data, China’s industrialization process is at least It has been 10 years. At present, the steel industry has experienced a sharp decline in profit margins and a decrease in market demand. The reason is that in order to slow down inflation, the state has introduced a series of regulatory policies. The market will gradually pick up in the future. Rae, a scholar from the United States, gave a wonderful speech on the current economic development of the United States and China's economic and trade relations. He said that China and the United States have formed an interdependent relationship. China is currently the only large economy in the world that is still developing at a high speed. The common economic interests will push the relationship between the two countries closer and closer.

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