At present, the debt crisis in Europe and the United States has intensified. After several rounds of consultations, the US Congress finally decided to raise the US debt ceiling, but then the US stock market plunged for several days due to the downgrade of the Standard & Poor's rating. When the US market had just stabilized, the European debt crisis reappeared. In the case of frequent debt crisis in Europe and the United States, in order to promote local economic development and create employment opportunities to alleviate the debt crisis, it is highly probable that trade protection measures will be introduced to restrict the import of photovoltaic products from China.
In recent years, China's photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly under the guidance of the global PV market and the guidance of domestic industrial policies. Since 2007, China's solar cell production ranks first in the world for four consecutive years. In the first half of 2011, China’s solar cell exports reached US$12.7 billion. Compared with the huge battery output, the application of photovoltaic products is “sweetâ€. Most solar cells rely on exports. The exporting countries are mainly in Europe and the United States. Therefore, China’s solar cells are too dependent on foreign markets and are highly vulnerable to this. The impact of the European and American sovereign debt crisis.
First, the impact of trade protectionism. The debt crisis in Europe and the United States may lead to the rise of trade protectionism and affect the development of China's photovoltaic industry. The EU has imposed punitive tariffs on products such as wall tiles and floor tiles that are exported to the EU, and the Ministry of Commerce has also warned of such products exported to Europe. Photovoltaic products are very likely to follow the trend, and are subject to trade protectionism under the pretext of product quality, government subsidies, and product dumping. According to past experience, once the response is unfavorable, other countries are very likely to hitchhike and impose sanctions on China. If such a situation occurs, it will have a negative impact on the development of China's photovoltaic industry. At present, China's battery module production has occupied half of the world's total, and the production capacity continues to increase. If you lose the European and American markets, the domestic production capacity will not be consumed in the short term, and the industry is bound to reshuffle, causing domino effects such as bankruptcy and unemployment.
Second, the PV market demand has declined. The European and American debt crisis may lead to a decline in China's PV product exports. In order to tighten the belt to pay off debts, the domestic demand of European and American countries will be restrained to a certain extent, which will also lead to the gradual deterioration of external demand. Europe and the United States, as the world's largest PV market, accounted for 84% of the global installed capacity in 2010 (the global, European and US PV market is 16.7GW, 13.26GW, 0.85GW), and is also a major exporter of PV products in China. The shrinking market demand in Europe and the United States will directly affect the development of China's photovoltaic industry. In the first half of 2011, due to the uncertainty of the German and Italian PV policies, China's enterprises have high inventory, some production lines have been shut down, and small enterprises have stopped production. Once the overall market shrinks, the impact will be huge.
Third, the appreciation of the renminbi. The debt crisis in Europe and the United States may prompt the appreciation of the renminbi and reduce the profit margin of China's photovoltaic products. The continuation of the debt crisis in Europe and the United States will likely increase the depreciation of the euro and the US dollar against the renminbi, and the effective exchange rate of the renminbi will also pick up. This will indirectly increase the price of China's photovoltaic products in Europe and the United States, and further affect the cost performance of China's photovoltaic products. According to analysis, the euro depreciated by 1% against the US dollar. In the short term, China's export growth rate to Europe will fall by 0.65%. If the EU economic growth rate drops by 1%, China's export growth rate will fall by 6%. In addition, China's photovoltaic products are mainly settled in the international market in the euro or the US dollar. Therefore, the appreciation of the renminbi will also cause the Chinese PV companies to bear the exchange risk and face exchange losses. The exchange losses in 2010 will have a greater impact on the industry.
Fourth, “radish and stick†promoted industrial transfer. In order to get rid of the impact of the debt crisis, European and American countries may attract foreign investment and promote local economic development by introducing relevant preferential policies and trade protection. (turn down to the 8th edition)
In the above circumstances, in order to avoid risks such as international trade, exchange rate and market, China's PV companies will gradually shift manufacturing to European and American countries. If the government does not properly guide it, it may slow down the development of China's photovoltaic industry, and even make the industry hollow. Today, while grasping the commanding heights of new energy development, it can lead the future economic development. While losing the advantages of the photovoltaic industry, China is likely to lose its leading role in future economic development. Encourage to go out, but don't go too far.
The European and American debt crisis is both a challenge and an opportunity. China should make decisive use of the European debt crisis, prepare for the rainstorm, and take the initiative to lay the foundation for the development of China's photovoltaic industry and even China's economy.
First, properly guide PV companies to invest abroad and enhance the international voice of China's PV industry. Utilizing the European and American debt crisis, European and American countries are keen to promote exports to reverse the trade deficit, vigorously introduce foreign advanced photovoltaic technology, or invest in European and American high-tech enterprises through shareholdings, mergers and acquisitions, etc., and enhance the competitiveness of China's photovoltaic enterprises. At the same time, China's PV companies are appropriately encouraged to invest and build factories in Europe and the United States, and direct investment in the RMB will speed up the internationalization of PV companies to avoid trade risks.
The second is to improve the export risk protection mechanism and improve the international voice of China's photovoltaic products. The sharp changes in the exchange rate in recent years have seriously eroded the profit margin of photovoltaic products. The government should improve the export risk protection mechanism as soon as possible to provide more risk management tools for banks and enterprises. Photovoltaic companies should also plan ahead: first, predict the trend of exchange rate changes, and standardize exchange rate fluctuations as early as in the contract; second, make full use of long-term foreign exchange settlement, RMB and foreign currency swaps, hedging of futures markets, etc. Derivatives, avoiding exchange rate risks; Third, using the strong competitiveness of China's photovoltaic products, and strive to use the RMB for settlement, even if it makes some concessions in terms of price, in order to gradually improve the voice of China's PV products in the international arena, the government must This actively supports it to promote the internationalization of the "RMB".
The third is to rationally guide and cultivate the investment enthusiasm of photovoltaic power stations and expand domestic demand. Under certain internal rate of return, PV project investment may become an effective tool for investment preservation and is favored by the capital market. Because the products of the photovoltaic project are production necessities, and their returns continue to occur in the coming decades. Therefore, pulling investment in photovoltaic power plants is also very likely to become one of the means for European and American countries to promote their own economic development. China should implement the "Renewable Energy Law" as soon as possible, introduce China's photovoltaic on-grid electricity price method, and clear the barriers to grid-connected and large-scale application of photovoltaic power generation.
Fourth, actively prepare for dealing with trade disputes and lay a good job in trade wars. Trade disputes may be more and more, and even normal development. Therefore, we should constantly improve the response mechanism, actively study the WTO rules and the characteristics of anti-dumping and countervailing policies and regulations of various countries, build an early warning system and response mechanisms, and adjust ourselves to cope with similar trade challenges in the future. At the same time, we will play the role of industry organizations such as China's Photovoltaic Industry Alliance, communicate with enterprises on a regular basis, do a good job in policy advice and communication, and integrate corporate resources to cope with international trade disputes.
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