How to adjust the development ideas of Chinese machine tool enterprises

At present, China's economic development is still at a relatively low stage. In particular, machine tool enterprises still have a certain decline compared with the previous years. Therefore, how to adjust development ideas and a reasonable balance of industrial structure is particularly important.

China's GDP in the first three quarters of this year was 35,348 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% at comparable prices, including: 8.1% in the first quarter, 7.6% in the second quarter, and 7.4% in the third quarter. Although it has fallen sharply compared to previous years, it is the fastest in the world. It is evidenced by the fact that in the “BRIC countries”, Russia is estimated to achieve a growth rate of 4.5% this year; India’s growth rate in the first two quarters of this year is 5.3%. However, the rupee has depreciated by 23% against the US dollar. It is not much better in the second half of the year. The Brazilian currency (Real) has depreciated by 7% this year. Its annual GDP growth rate is only 2.7% last year, and this year it is estimated to fall to 2.5%. This shows that China's economic growth rate is still at a high level. At the same time, according to comparable prices, the industrial added value of above-scale industries in the first three quarters increased by 10.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points from the first half of the year. It is also true.

However, although this growth rate has envied the countries of the world, many domestic industry companies have already experienced a reversal of the market situation, increased operational difficulties, and even a sharp decline in sales. Is China's economic growth rate must reach 9%-10% to survive? Now, after the 8% or so medium-speed growth has become the norm, how should all industries face it? This is an urgent issue that must be seriously considered at present. In other words, the vast number of enterprises must have a clear understanding of the major changes that are taking place in China's macroeconomic situation, so as to promptly respond to the future development of the enterprise.

China's economic development is undergoing a turning point: bid farewell to the double-digit high-growth era and enter a new phase of "stable growth, restructuring, and inflation control"

After the outbreak of the international financial crisis, the central government repeatedly stressed that efforts should be made to resolve the unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable contradictions in China's economic and social development, but there have not been many real actions since then. This year, the central government actively lowered the growth indicator, indicating a determination that the adjustment of the economic structure and the transformation of the development mode must be true. For every business, this means that the business environment has to change a lot, and the development strategy must be adjusted accordingly. In the following, based on the current situation, we will outline the changes and experiences that China's economic and social development is undergoing and will be used for reference.

China's economy is bidding farewell to the double-digit high-growth era. In the future, the annual growth rate of 7%-8% of GDP will become the norm. Enterprises must adjust their strategies to adapt to the new development environment.

At this year's National People's Congress, Premier Wen Jiabao announced that the Chinese government's annual economic growth target for 2012 is 7.5%, which is in line with the goal of an average annual growth rate of 7% in the 12th Five-Year Plan. Compared with the average growth rate of about 10% since the reform and opening up, it has obviously fallen sharply. We understand that this represents the strategic determination of the country to accelerate the "adjustment of the economic structure and the transformation of the development mode."

Premier Wen stressed that the goal of lowering the growth rate is to "guide all parties to put their efforts to accelerate the transformation of economic development mode and effectively improve the quality and efficiency of economic development, so as to achieve a longer period, a higher level, and better quality. Development." This shows that the slowdown in economic growth is the initiative of the government's macroeconomic regulation and control.

This year, the economic growth rate has fallen sharply, and the life of all walks of life has been difficult. I hope that the central government will once again implement the stimulus policy to "stable growth". However, three quarters have passed this year. The economic authorities have repeatedly stated that they will not introduce a similar “four trillion” stimulus policy. They have only taken some normal counter-cyclical operations in terms of monetary and fiscal policies, such as interest rate cuts and RRR cuts. (reserve), structural tax cuts, etc. Of course, in order to prevent the economic growth from falling too fast and to eliminate the possibility of a “hard landing”, the central government still has some actions in terms of investment, such as giving priority to the “12th Five-Year Plan” key projects, etc., which is said to have reached more than 1 trillion yuan. . On the other hand, the investment enthusiasm of local governments is very high. Recently, the investment plans put forward by some provinces and cities in the name of “stable growth” have reached more than 10 trillion, but they have not been launched on a large scale. It can be seen that the government has learned the lesson and is more cautious about the measures to achieve steady growth.

Why can't the large-scale stimulus policy be used again? Some well-known economists pointed out that the main reason for China's current economic development is the implementation of Keynesian stimulus policies for many years. In layman's terms, it is the government's massive investment to create demand. In the early days, you will see everything is good, GDP growth will recover quickly, and the CPI increase is not too big. Everyone will say that Keynesianism is very god, wages have risen, incomes are high, products are sold, and prices have not risen too high. However, according to the experience and lessons of developed countries in the last century, the biggest problem of Keynesian investment stimulus policy is that it is unsustainable. In the later period, inflation begins to show up, growth begins to decline, and stagflation occurs, making macroeconomic policy a dilemma. This is The current portrayal of China's economy. Therefore, the solution is to deepen reforms, change the strings, return economic activities to the market, completely bid farewell to Keynesianism, greatly reduce the specific participation of the government, and revitalize China's economic development.

The above is the main policy recommendations put forward by the Chinese economics community to the government to alleviate the current predicament and maintain sustainable development. It seems that the government has listened to it. Of course, there is still a long way to go before the problem is solved.

The primary task of economic restructuring is to rebuild the balance between exports, investment and consumption.

The content of economic restructuring is very rich, but from the macroeconomic level of China, the biggest task of adjusting the economic structure is to expand domestic demand and rebuild the balance between exports, investment and consumption. Looking at the countries of the world, the driving force for economic growth is the “troika” of exports, investment and consumption, and consumption is the main force. However, China is in turn, with exports and investment as the main force, and consumption has been suppressed for a long time, leading to a serious imbalance in economic development. This is the crux of the current economic development problem.

Of course, we must see that in the last decade, the two major driving forces of export and investment have played a huge role in the rapid development of China's economy, and this role is also a great achievement of reform and opening up: in the 1990s, China's economy drastically embarked on it. In the path of market-oriented reform, two major events have directly affected the rapid development of the new century. First, the housing commercialization reform initiated in 1998 opened the way for the development of China's real estate market. Second, the accession to the WTO in 2001 opened the door for China to participate in economic globalization and enter the world market. In the past ten years, China's exports of goods have grown at an average annual rate of 21.6%. Since 2009, it has surpassed Germany, ranking first in global exports for three consecutive years, accounting for 10.4% of the world market. In the past ten years, China's real estate market has also achieved unprecedented rapid growth. Real estate development has taken the lead in China's investment, accounting for about 10% of GDP and 25% of total investment, and has quickly become a pillar industry of the national economy. The rapid development of export and real estate industry has driven a large number of related industries and huge investment demand, which has strongly supported the overall high-speed growth of China's economy, and all walks of life feel that life is better.

This good day is now a challenge. Since the financial crisis, the economic recovery of developed countries has been slow, the demand has been sluggish, and the European debt crisis has been dragging on for a long time, which has caused a negative growth in the EU market, the country's largest exporter. Export growth in the first three quarters was only 7.4%, a decrease of 2/3 over the same period last year. At the same time, the real estate industry bubble has become increasingly serious, forcing the state to regulate the real estate, which has affected the growth of more than 50% of the relevant industries in the country, making the domestic demand market, which was originally unbalanced in size, more exhausted, and economic development has formed a disadvantage of internal and external difficulties. situation.

Below, we will give some brief explanations and analysis on the role and problems of the export, investment and consumption of the "troika" in China's economic development.

1 Export: Since 2009, China has surpassed Germany and maintained its first global export for three consecutive years, accounting for 10.4% of the world's export market. In the past ten years, China’s exports of goods have increased by 4.93 times, while global growth during the same period was only 1.46 times. Obviously, on such a high base, it is impossible to maintain high-speed growth as in the past. Even if the demand in the European and American markets recovers, the global market has been unable to absorb such a huge export from China.

2 Investment: In the past 10 years, the proportion of China's investment in GDP has risen from about 40% at the beginning of this century to nearly 50%, the highest level in the world. Internationally, the investment rate of developing countries is 20%-30% on average, and in developed countries it is 15%-20%. As an emerging economy, it is necessary for China to continue to expand its investment, accelerate infrastructure construction, and promote economic development. However, excessive use of investment means (especially direct government investment) to increase the growth rate will lead to a serious imbalance in economic development, which not only squeezes the reasonable consumption space of residents, but also induces a series of risks, such as inflation, resource price increases, Asset bubbles and the resulting social risks.

3 Consumption: Since the reform and opening up, China's GDP has grown at an average annual rate of 9.8%, ranking first in the world. The household consumption rate has dropped from 53% in 1985 to 35.1% in 2009, and the contrast is huge. In most countries today, the household consumption rate is between 50% and 70%, which means that consumption is the main driving force for economic development. However, China has done the opposite and left a huge hidden danger.

Obviously, the top management has already seen this problem. In recent years, it has continuously strengthened its focus on people's livelihood, and in the medium and long-term development strategy, it has clearly defined the key policy of expanding domestic demand. This is completely correct. However, it should be noted that expanding domestic demand is not as simple as adding a little wage to the people. It is a complex system project that involves further improving the market-oriented reform of the economy and changing the social distribution pattern.

In summary, the adjustment of the balance between exports, investment and consumption has solved the biggest structural problems of the Chinese economy. It can be said that this structure has been adjusted. Many problems that have been plagued in economic and social life, such as internal and external imbalances, environmental resources, growth methods, foreign exchange over-preservation, exchange rate mechanism, trade friction and even social stability issues, can be Great relief and improvement. The reason is very simple: improving people's livelihood is the fundamental goal of economic development. Deviating from this point and going one-sidedly to pursue high-speed growth and distorting the objective laws of economic development will inevitably lead to these various contradictions. The main contradiction has been resolved, and other contradictions will be solved.

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