In 2012, international oil supply and demand tend to be loose

On February 9th, China Petroleum Economy and Technology Research Institute released its latest “2011 Domestic and Overseas Oil and Gas Industry Development Report” in Beijing. The report analyzes the development characteristics of the oil and gas industry at home and abroad in 2011 and looks forward to the development trend in 2012. The report believes that in 2011 the world’s oil supply and demand were generally tight, and China’s oil consumption continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down significantly. The report predicts that world petroleum supply and demand will tend to be loose in 2012, and international oil prices will be low and high afterwards and generally lower than 2011 levels.

The report shows that in 2011 the world oil supply and demand growth rate fell, but the overall fundamentals are tight; international oil prices rose sharply, Brent average annual oil price reached 111.23 US dollars / barrel, an increase of up to 39.9%, the highest level ever. The steady and rapid growth of natural gas demand in the world basically ended the oversupply situation since the financial crisis. Gas prices in Europe and Asia continued to rise sharply with oil prices, while gas prices in North America further declined. The operating rate of the world's refineries is still hovering at a low level. The overall gross profit of refineries rebounds slightly; the operating rate of ethylene plants is still at a relatively low level. In the case of a decline in oil and gas production, international major oil companies have both increased their operating income and net profits by more than 30%, and have reached or surpassed the pre-crisis level; most national oil companies have increased their output, focusing on the exploration and development of unconventional resources, and further expanding downstream Business; technical service companies have made new progress in their distinctive and differentiated development.

For the domestic oil and gas market, the report believes that the apparent oil consumption in 2011 was 470 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, which was lower than the average growth rate of 7.1% in the past decade. The annual crude oil apparent consumption was estimated at 454 million tons, an increase of 3.4% year-on-year. The external dependence on oil and crude oil doubled by 55%. The consumption of refined oil and economic growth slowed down simultaneously. The supply and demand of refined oil products was generally balanced, but there was still a period of tight local diesel supply. The apparent consumption of natural gas has increased by more than 20%, and imports have risen sharply. The degree of foreign dependence has rapidly risen to 24%.

In terms of domestic oil and gas production, exploration and development have been rapidly and comprehensively promoted. Oil production has remained at over 200 million tons, reaching 204 million tons; natural gas production has exceeded 100 billion cubic meters, reaching 101.9 billion cubic meters, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year; unconventional gas exploration The pace was noticeably accelerated; overseas oil and gas equity production reached 85 million tons of oil equivalent. In terms of petroleum processing, the newly added refinery capacity was 26.5 million tons/year, the new ethylene capacity was 400,000 tons/year, the operating rate of refinery and ethylene plant maintained a relatively high level, the processing volume of crude oil increased by 5.7% year-on-year, and ethylene production broke 15 million for the first time Ton. The oil and gas trunking network has basically taken shape; LNG storage capacity has increased significantly, ranking sixth in the world; oil reserve construction has been rapidly advancing, and 40-day consumption capacity has been formed.

Looking forward to 2012, the report predicts that the global economic growth rate will further slow down, and the European debt crisis will become the primary risk factor. The world's oil supply and demand will tend to be loose, and international oil prices will be low and high afterwards and generally lower than the 2011 level. World oil and gas exploration and development activities will maintain strong growth momentum, investment will continue to maintain double-digit growth, and exploration and development hotspots will continue to be deep-water, unconventional oil and gas, and LNG. The world's capacity for refining and ethylene will increase significantly, excess refinery capacity will be exacerbated, gross margin of refining will continue to be under pressure, and the ethylene market will be weak before strong, and the operating rate of equipment will not be significantly improved.

For China, the report anticipates that oil demand is expected to approach 500 million tons, oil and crude oil imports will continue to increase, and crude oil imports may grow faster than oil. Natural gas consumption is expected to exceed 150 billion cubic meters, and the proportion of primary energy will exceed 5%; natural gas production will reach 110 billion cubic meters; imports will continue to grow rapidly, and foreign dependence will exceed 30%.

The report pointed out that 2012 is still an important year for the transfer of methods and structural adjustments. It is expected that the country will introduce more new policies in terms of energy conservation and environmental protection, resource-based product prices, and tax reforms.

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The China National Petroleum Corporation’s Institute of Economic and Technical Research is a research institute under the direct jurisdiction of China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and a decision support agency that is mainly engaged in research on development strategy. In all development stages of the past forty years, facing oil and serving petroleum, the research has produced fruitful results and made positive contributions to the development of China's petroleum and petrochemical industries and national economy.

Since 2008, the China Petroleum Economic Research Institute has initiated the preparation of the Domestic and International Oil and Gas Industry Development Report. It seeks to examine the world oil and gas development situation with a global cause, observes and analyzes the status of China's oil and gas industry, with complete and reliable information and professionalism. The analysis reflects the development status, characteristics, and development trend of the domestic and foreign oil industry in the year.

In 2011, the China Petroleum Economic and Technical Research Institute adjusted the reporting framework. The original five chapters and 14 chapters have been adjusted to seven chapters and 17 chapters, highlighting the oil market and the oil and gas cooperation both at home and abroad. At the same time, the content of the report emphasizes the basic information system. Comprehensive, current research is objective and reasonable, and trend analysis is well-founded.