The People's Bank of China announced on the 30th that from December 5, 2011, the deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions will be lowered by 0.5 percentage points. After the adjustment, China's large financial institutions and small and medium-sized financial institutions will implement a deposit reserve ratio of 21.0% and 17.5% respectively. This is the first time in three years that China's deposit reserve ratio has moved out of the “upward†range. (November 30, People's Bank of China website)
Last year, the deposit reserve ratio increased by 12 times. This year, there were also six increases. In the case of inflation adjustment, raising the deposit reserve ratio is a tightening monetary policy to achieve regulatory purposes. Now, for the first time in three years, the deposit reserve ratio is placed in the “downgradeâ€. The meaning of the policy is that the direction of policy regulation and control of its logo will inevitably change. In my opinion, this is to adjust inflation to quietly shift to maintain growth. A "tag".
It is not difficult to know carefully that the reserve reserve ratio of the following is due to the significant decrease in foreign exchange holdings in October, and the currency will naturally shrink passively. There is a limit to the currency contraction. Within this limit, Regulating inflation, once it exceeds this standard, will lead to a risk of accelerated economic downturn, so it is necessary to open the hedging. The downward adjustment of the deposit reserve ratio is obviously due to such considerations. After all, after the downward adjustment, the panic of the market can be calmed down, and the purpose of stabilizing the people can be achieved.
This also reflects the flexibility of regulatory policies. After all, in terms of monetary policy, moderate relaxation is a must, but at present, because of inflation, it is indeed too tight, so that the stock of money, even can not effectively drive the economic operation, it is necessary to properly "relax." The next step is obviously to look at the economic movement. If the monetary policy is still tightening, it may continue to cut the deposit reserve ratio because there is no room for adjustment at present.
There are also concerns that the downward adjustment of the reserve requirement ratio will trigger a rebound in inflation. In fact, this concern is slightly more than that. After all, the current inflation is structural, and the most important reason is the shortage of agricultural products, and the RRR is lowered. Appropriately loosening monetary policy, in fact, has little effect on the supply of agricultural products. Therefore, at this point in time, the negative impact of the deposit reserve ratio is also very small, and the positive and transformational significance of the regulation of monetary policy itself is obvious.
What's more, the signs of the current global economic recession have not improved significantly, and external demand has naturally fallen sharply. At this time, the RRR is lowered, and its positive significance is not conceivable for preventing the economy from falling too fast. What's more, in recent months, both GDP and CPI have been declining. Even in coastal areas, Wenzhou and other places, SMEs have shown signs of serious financial breaks. At this time, it is timely to appropriately loosen monetary policy.
In fact, it is also worth noting that the RRR is lowered. It is the NDRC's upward adjustment of electricity prices. This is actually a "two moves" to regulate and control policies. In the context of falling prices and reduced inflationary pressures, fine-tuning within market expectations is bound to be on the agenda. Moderately loosening the currency, promoting the reform of the production factor price, and structural tax cuts will all become policy options. This "three strokes", the first two moves is this time, and the structural tax cuts, in November the Ministry of Finance exempted small and micro enterprises 22 administrative charges that laid the groundwork. The meaning of this conveyance has become obvious. The tone of economic work has shifted from inflation to growth.
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