National electricity price will rise 2.5 points in a unified way

On the one hand, a firm coal price, on the other hand, is a power plant that generates more power and losses. In the middle of this, along with the clamor of power shortages everywhere, the contradiction between coal and electricity this year has become more acute than in previous years. With the advent of winter heating peaks, the country’s power shortage situation is becoming increasingly severe. Many reporters learned that the relevant state departments have recently organized local relevant departments and power companies to discuss tariff adjustment plans. Some local price departments have received clear signals of price adjustments. The price adjustment plan may be announced in the near future. The price adjustment will be 2-3 cents per kilowatt-hour across the country, and follow the pattern of first increasing the on-grid tariff of the power generation company and then increasing the terminal non-resident sales price. The industry believes that the current coal-fired linkage mechanism is still an effective short-term solution to the contradiction between coal and electricity. However, in the long run, there are still many problems to be solved.

1 Why are thermal power companies losing money?

Once the cost of electric power is about 0.5 yuan, and the on-grid price is 0.4219 yuan. Each time the power company loses 7 cents, the China Electricity Council predicts that the nation's largest electric power shortage will be around 40 million kilowatts this winter and next spring. The contradiction between power supply and demand in central and southern China will be most prominent. However, compared with the previous “hard power shortage” due to insufficient power generation capacity, the current situation is “electricity shortage” when the installed capacity is adequate.

Wang Xichun, director of Huaneng Huangtai Power Plant in the eastern outskirts of Jinan, Shandong, calculated the account: The coal price was nearly 1,000 yuan per ton for the plant market. The expensive coal price plus other expenses, and the electricity generation cost for once was 0.5 yuan. Around, and the on-grid price is 0.4219 yuan, which means that every time you make a power, you lose 7 points more money.

"The total assets of 5.8 billion yuan, the debt has reached 5.99 billion yuan, in August the beginning of the loan is not enough, the capital chain has been broken." Wang Xichun further disclosed that the power plant has been losing money since 2006, is expected to lose 400 million yuan this year . Due to the shortage of funds, more than 30 middlemen have arrears of 220 million yuan in coal, and workers' wages have to be delayed one month later.

Huangtai Power Plant is just a microcosm of many thermal power plants. Since 2004, China’s coal price has risen by 200%, while the price of electricity has risen by less than 40% during the same period. The profits of thermal power companies have been “squeezed”, resulting in a large loss for the entire industry. Datang Group Chairman Liu Shunda told reporters that this one-tenth of the country's large-scale power generation enterprises, in the country's 88 thermal power plants have 62 losses, a loss of 70.5%, of which 28 have been Insolvency.

According to the survey conducted by reporters, the rate of redemption of coal for some key contracts with relatively cheap prices is not high. “Because of the increased power of coal, it is often impossible to strictly honor the sales and prices of key coal contracts,” said Qiu Aomeng, director of the Economic Operation Bureau of the Economic Commission of Shandong Province. It is estimated that about 1.9 billion tons of coal will be consumed in the country this year, of which about 700 million tons will be the price of cheaper key coal contracts. According to a survey by the State Electricity Regulatory Commission, the cashing rate of these key coal-fired coal contracts is less than 50%, and the decline in coal quality and various kinds of doping have caused serious false phenomena.

Due to serious coal shortages in Shanxi, Henan, Hunan, and Guizhou provinces, the power supply gap caused has affected the healthy development of local economies. A total of 17 provinces have taken measures to limit power usage and avoid peak power usage since the beginning of this year. “The lack of electricity has led to a significant decline in the growth rate of the province’s industrial economy. After August, the growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by eight places at the beginning of the year compared with the beginning of the year. The lack of electricity has also directly affected the landing of some large projects.” Commissioner Xie Chaoying said.

2 Who pushed up the coal price?

The coal is transported from the production site to the power plant where it is consumed, and the intermediate links such as transportation and charges account for 30%-60% of the coal price.

Since the beginning of this year, market-oriented coal prices have soared in the face of strong demand. This year, the coal market price has risen significantly since March. In July, the average price of 5,500 kcal Shanxi high-grade coal in Qinhuangdao Port was RMB 840/ton, which was RMB 78.8/ton higher than that in March. In August, it was recovered slightly after the September adjustment. At present, it is maintained at around 850 yuan/ton.

"In the off-season in previous years, there were two downward curves for coal prices. This year it is all the way up." Vice Minister of China's largest power generation company, Huaneng Group, said that the average profit per ton of coal in the coal industry is as high as 30%. He also believes that the current increase in the concentration of coal, local governments and large coal companies to increase the ability to control coal production and prices, prone to off-season, "control production insured price", restrictions on coal out of the province and other unfavorable phenomena.

The reality of the "reverse distribution" of China's energy supply and demand is also an important reason for the long-distance transportation and rising prices of coal. According to a survey report issued by the State Electricity Regulatory Commission, coal is transported from the production site to the power plant at the consumer site, and the cost of intermediate links such as transportation and charging accounts for 30%-60% of the coal price. Some power plants reported that only unreasonable charges in the circulation link accounted for about 50% of the intermediate link costs.

“Electricity and coal companies have signed contracts through middlemen, and coal and electricity both have agents. Middlemen coordinate electric coal and wagons from them. The gray area is too large.” Li Jihui, consultant of Shandong Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, said that the current coal circulation links are chaotic. In order to increase the profit margin between the contract coal and the market coal, it almost became the unspoken rules of the industry.

The lag in the construction of large-scale energy infrastructure has contributed to the spread of coal-electricity contradictions. The Hami region in Xinjiang is an important energy base for coal resources in the West-to-East coal transport and West-to-East power transmission. The reporter recently observed that due to the lag in the construction of railways, highways, and long-distance transmission lines, some foreign investors have occupied large amounts of coal resources. , but it was too late to start work. It is very common for coal resources to be “circled without exploration, exploration, or exploration”.

“The high price of coal has failed to drive the increase in coal production; there is a strong demand for electricity and there is no improvement in the power generation momentum of power companies.” Fan Bi, deputy director general of the State Council’s Policy Research Office, pointed out that the crux lies in the existence of coal and electricity transportation links. The dual-track system of plans and markets has caused the auto-regulatory role of market mechanisms and price mechanisms in production and operations to be curbed, resulting in a vicious cycle of coal price fluctuations.

3 How to break the coal power gridlock?

The industry believes that the current coal-fired linkage mechanism is still a short-term effective measure to solve the coal and electricity contradictions. The high price of coal, the continuously expanding electricity consumption gap, and the continuous losses of thermal power companies have made the electricity situation in this winter and next spring very uncertain. The market’s call for higher electricity prices and further advancement of electricity price reforms has become increasingly strong.

Many reporters learned that the relevant state departments have recently organized local relevant departments and power companies to discuss tariff adjustment plans. Some local price departments have received clear signals of price adjustments. The price adjustment plan may be announced in the near future. The price adjustment will be 2-3 cents per kilowatt-hour across the country, and follow the pattern of first increasing the on-grid tariff of the power generation company and then increasing the terminal non-resident sales price.

“At present, there is indeed a possibility of an increase in electricity prices. First, the decrease in CPI leaves room for price increases. Second, it can restrain unreasonable electricity demand from high energy-consuming enterprises and promote energy-saving and emission reduction. Third, it is necessary to protect power generation companies. Enthusiasm to ensure the supply of electricity in winter.” Xue Jing, director of the Statistical Department of China Electricity, believes that the modest increase in electricity prices will have a limited impact on the real economy, but it can curb the huge losses of thermal power companies.

The previous round of tariff adjustment occurred in the first half of the year. On April 10th, the on-grid tariffs of 12 provinces were raised by an average of 2 cents per kilowatt-hour. After two months, the average electricity price for commercial and agricultural sales in 15 provinces increased by 1.67 points per kilowatt-hour. Money, it is still difficult to make up for the gap.

Most people in the industry agree that under the conditions that the current electricity price reform is not yet in place and the competitive electricity market has not yet been established, the coal-electricity linkage mechanism is still a short-term effective measure to solve the coal-power conflict.

“In addition to price hikes at this stage, to solve coal-fired power problems, we must implement coal-electricity linkages and increase the on-grid tariffs without adjusting the terminal electricity sales price. The price pressure on the power grid should be digested by state subsidies. Second, we must control the rise in coal prices. A special income fund will be levied on the coal enterprises to subsidize the power grid," said Zhang Weidong, deputy director of the CETD’s industry development planning department.

In response to possible cyclical price hikes in coal prices following coal-electricity linkage, industry insiders suggested that if coal prices rise too quickly, they should be included in the scope of temporary interventions to establish a price adjustment declaration system, or to curb coal by levying windfall taxes. The impulse of price increases. In the long run, the ultimate direction of breaking the “electricity shortage” is to promote the reform of the power system and gradually form a scientific and reasonable electricity pricing mechanism.

"The most favorable condition for the 12th Five-Year Plan period is the reform of the power system." Feng Fei, minister of industry and development of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the key to the reform of the power system is threefold: First, the reform pricing mechanism is not simply a price adjustment but the formation of Reasonable price formation mechanism; Second, the introduction of effective competition in the grid monopoly; Third, further rationalize the relationship between the government, the market and the enterprise.

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