Oil and gas are the main sources of Russian export earnings. According to the latest annual data released by the World Integrated Trade Solutions (WITS), oil and natural gas accounted for 68% of Russia's export revenue in 2013, with oil export revenue accounting for 54%. In the previous four years, its share rose from 63% to 68%. Peterson believes that this ratio will reach about 2/3 in 2014.
But the two pillars of the Russian economy are now both hit. Due to the global economic slowdown and the increase in oil supply, oil prices have “suddenly squanderedâ€. Just started in 2015, oil prices have fallen below the $50 mark, and have fallen more than 55% since the high of six years last year.
Not only that, Russia’s control over the European natural gas market is also weakening. In the past, Russia’s control of natural gas was a powerful political chip that it could use. According to the Economist, in 2006 and 2009, Russia cut off the supply of natural gas to Ukraine, which led to the crisis of heating and factory shutdowns in countries including Slovakia and Hungary. Western European countries including Germany also urgently searched for other supply channels. One third of Europe's natural gas comes from Russia, and half of its pipeline crosses Ukraine.
Then, in 2009, the EU passed the “Third Energy Packageâ€, prohibiting companies engaged in natural gas mining from becoming the owners of regional natural gas pipelines, and adopting a series of measures to make the supply channels more diversified. In December last year, Lithuania, which used to rely on Russian natural gas imports, has begun importing LNG from Norway. Ukrainian natural gas imports from Western countries have also risen rapidly. At the same time, Europe's relatively warm winter this year has led to a weakening of Russia's drag on the European natural gas market. This has forced Russia to shift its focus to non-European countries, especially China and India.
The Wall Street Journal quoted Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov as saying that the Russian budget now faces a $240 billion vacancy, of which about $180 billion is due to falling oil prices. In order to alleviate budgetary pressures, in addition to military spending remains unchanged, Russia has plans to cut its budget spending by 10%. Anton Siluanov said that the reserve fund will be used to inject 500 billion rubles into the national fiscal system at a current exchange rate of about $7.65 billion. But analysts believe that this will not bring much improvement to Russia and cannot "boost the currency or fill the budget deficit."
According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, if the two sovereign wealth funds of $169 billion and the gold reserves of 45 billion are deducted, the Russian central bank now has only $174 billion in liquid international reserves, while Russia now faces 1,000 per year. With billions of dollars in foreign debt, Russia may be forced to further increase its current account balance in 2015. JPMorgan Chase last December predicted that the overall current account balances in 2014 and 2015 will increase to $61 billion and $80 billion, respectively.
Overall, Russia’s exports in 2015 will fall by a third from $508 billion in 2014 to $339 billion. Assuming that the commodity trade surplus is largely unchanged in nominal value, imports will fall from $310 billion in 2014 to $141 billion, a drop of more than 50%.
From the perspective of Russia's import structure, production materials and consumer goods are the main components. In 2013, the proportion of imports in the two countries was 44% and 21% respectively. Therefore, the Peterson Institute for International Economics believes that the reduction of imports will cause a devastating blow to Russian investment and consumption, and further affect the total output of the economy.
Since June last year, the ruble has fallen nearly 100% against the US dollar. At present, the exchange rate of the ruble dollar is 14.7 against 64.7 rubles. The 10-year government bond yields have also been set to record again, now at 15.42%. The depreciation of the ruble has led to rising inflation in Russia. In December last year, Russia’s inflation level reached 11.4%. The World Bank’s Global Economic Outlook released on the 13th predicts that Russia’s GDP will increase by only 0.7% in 2014, while it will shrink by 2.9% in 2015.
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Halogen-Free Flame Retardant Compounds
Bisphenol A Bis-(Diphenyl Phosphate)(BDP)
5945-33-5/181028-79-5
Triethyl Phosphate(TEP)
78-40-4
Resorcinol bis (diphenyl phosphate)(RDP)
125997-21-9/57583-54-7
diethyl bis(2-hydroxyethyl)aminomethylphosphonate
2781-11-5
Tricresyl phosphate(TCP)
1330-78-5
Isopropylphenyl phosphate(IPPP)
68937-41-7
Isopropyl phenyl diphenyl phosphate(IPDPP )
28108-99-8
2-Ethylhexyl Diphenyl Phosphate(EHDP)
1241-94-7
Isodecyl diphenyl phosphate(IDPP)
29761-21-5
Tributyl Phosphate(TBP)
126-73-8
Triaryl phosphates butylated
68952-33-0
Trixylenyl phosphate(TXP)
25155-23-1
Tris(2-butoxyethyl) phosphate(TBEP)
78-51-3
Cresyl Diphenyl Phosphate(CDP)
26444-49-5
Tri-isobutyl Phosphate(TIBP)
126-71-6
Triphenyl phosphate(TPP)
115-86-6
Tri (2-ethylhexyl) Phosphate
78-42-2
Resorcinol Aromatic Polyphosphate(PX-200)
139189-30-3
Trimethyl phosphate(TMP)
512-56-1
DOPO(HCA/DOP/DPP/ODOPB)
35948-25-5
DOPO-HQ(HCA-HQ/DOP-HQ/DPP-HQ)
35948-25-5
Poly(m-phenylene methylphosphonate)
63747-58-0
aluminium trihydrate (ATH)
21645-51-2
magnesium hydroxide (MDH)
1309-42-8
antimony trioxide (ATO)
1309-64-4
Zinc borate
1332-07-6
Melamine polyphosphate (MPP)
218768-84-4
Melamine phosphate (MP)
20208-95-1
Melamine Cyanurate(MCA)
37640-57-6
68333-79-9
2,3-Dimethyl-2,3-diphenylbutane
1889-67-4
Potassium diphenyl sulphone sulphonate(KSS)
63316-43-8
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