In mid-January, the "2010 World and China Economic Trend Forecast Report" was released. Nearly 80% of economists predict that global GDP growth will be below 4% this year, and China's economy will continue to maintain rapid development. Sixty percent of economists believe that the engine of global economic recovery this year will be in China.
However, economists are generally worried about China's real estate prices and other asset bubbles, and believe that promoting reforms and breaking monopolies will become an important breakthrough for the sustained high growth of China's economy.
Nearly 40% of economists believe that the world economic recovery curve will show a "W" shape. Regarding the withdrawal of the global economic stimulus plan this year, the opposition is about 30%. Nearly 60% of economists believe that China's monetary policy will shift to moderately tight.
Li Yining, honorary dean of Peking University's Guanghua School of Management and deputy director of the Economic Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, also pointed out that the Chinese economy is most afraid of inflation, but "stagflation", and it is necessary to prevent inflation and the large unemployment caused by stagflation. He stressed that the recent increase in the deposit reserve ratio is not a policy turning point, and monetary policy is still within a moderately loose range.
Li Yining said that to deal with inflation, the austerity policy is not a panacea. The fiscal policy and monetary policy can be closely matched, and there is no need to be "double tight." It is not advisable to change the positive fiscal policy and the moderately loose monetary policy too quickly. In addition, a structural monetary policy can be adopted, which is to refine monetary policy and adjust the deposit reserve ratio in different regions.
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