Recently, the latest set of macro data has come out, and the economic situation has continued to decline as usual, but many people are not surprised by this, as if everything is expected. Along with the weakening of economic data, there are also steel prices. It is reported that last week, there were dozens of declines in steel products such as thread and hot rolling, which further weakened market confidence, and merchants generally bearish on the market. If the steel market continues to slump, then it is estimated that the steel industry may have a round of production cuts. Since June, domestic crude steel production has been hovering within 200 lines. According to statistics from the Bureau of Statistics, domestic crude steel output in June was 60.21 million tons, that is, daily average crude steel output was 2.07 million tons, second only to this year. The record high of 2.019 million tons in the month. Correspondingly, the high crude steel output has once again made the profitability of domestic steel companies worse, which will cause steel mills to rethink the issue of production cuts. Carefully calculated, in fact, domestic steel mills have been persisting for a long time. In the context of declining demand and declining profits, steel mills have insisted on high production for such a long time. This courage is admirable. It is undeniable that steel mills have certainly hoped for a series of stimulus policies issued by the state, hoping that these policies can stimulate the recovery of downstream demand, but this seems to have no effect on the steel market in the short term, and it is hot and rainy. The advent of the season, the downstream construction is further affected, and the steel market demand is weakened. Last week, the practice of lowering the ex-factory price of steel by major steel mills such as Baosteel and Shagang has already made people feel that they are poor. Imagine that even the downward adjustment of the ex-factory price has been unable to alleviate the downturn in the steel market. What else is there to reduce production? If you want to say that from the recent game between the regional governments and the central control policy, the real estate industry is still likely to recover, and the real estate transaction volume has continued to rise in recent months, but the real estate industry can really be in the short term. Recover, then help the market to devour inventory? The author advises you not to hope, although the local government has been "latently" the impulse to relax the regulation of the property market, but the central government strictly prohibits the property market regulation policy can not be "discounted", for local policy changes that significantly relax regulation and disrupt policy expectations, all stop And repeatedly stressed that China's property market regulation will not be relaxed this year, and the credit policy of restrictive purchase and differentiation will still be strictly enforced. In the case that the real estate industry will continue to be suppressed, the demand for steel is difficult to release, and the serious contradiction between supply and demand will still cause steel prices to continue to decline. In addition, data recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that GDP growth in the first half of the year was 7.8%, and in the second quarter was 7.6%. China’s economy is broken. This data is really worrying. Under the two-way squeeze of shrinking demand and overcapacity, the Chinese economy is really paralyzed this year. However, the mid-year meeting will be held soon, and the economic fatigue in the first half of the year may also make the meeting set the direction for the fiscal and monetary policy in the second half of the year. Moreover, it is understood that the current market will introduce a series of The voice of the economic policy of 'steady growth' is very high. The author thinks that China's economy is too dependent on national policies at present. National policies are long-term stimulus to the economy. The market should not expect the country to once again return to the market because the previous policies have not played its role. . Market analysts of China Steel's spot network also believe that although the mid-year meeting is worth looking forward to, the market should follow the market rules more, because when the current demand is weak, the appropriate reduction in production is the real solution to the market oversupply in the short term. The key to the contradiction. As for the pulling of the national policy on the economy, it will gradually show up in the later period that this is an urgent need. On the whole, the current decline in economic data and the downturn in the steel market have indeed brought a big blow to the majority of businesses, and it is not difficult to see from the recent price adjustment policy of steel mills and the continuous decline in crude steel production. Steel mills have already been bearish. The demand for the real estate industry cannot be released. This year's "Golden September and Silver 10" may also become a bubble again. Under such a downturn, it is not surprising that the steel industry has ushered in a round of scale-down production.
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