The Japanese government decided to implement a power cut policy from July 1, 2011, aimed at alleviating power shortages in the summer and power shortages after the Great East Japan Earthquake. At present, it has become one of the topics discussed by the Japanese government and major media regarding power supply, energy saving, energy utilization structure, and greenhouse gas emission reduction.
Japan’s power curtailment policy will continue for more than two months. The Japanese government decided in early April that according to the “Electrical Services Law†promulgating the power cut order, large-scale consumer electricity consumption will be reduced by 25% year-on-year, and electricity saving for small users and household electricity will be 15 % to 20%. With the gradual restoration of the power supply capability of Tokyo Electric Power Company, on May 25th, the Japanese government formally decided to implement a power restriction order for large-scale power users in the power supply areas of Tokyo Electric Power and Northeast Electric Power Company from July 1. Electricity will be adjusted to a 15% reduction on the basis of the peak usage of electricity in summer last year. It is reported that the designated bulk users are those users whose power consumption exceeds 500 kilowatts according to the power supply contract, and the non-weekend hours are from 9am to 8pm. The electricity restriction in the power supply area of ​​Tokyo Electric Power Co., Ltd. was implemented from July 1 to September 22. The power-reduction order in the power supply area of ​​Tohoku Electric Power Co., Ltd. was implemented until September 9. Large-scale power users will face fines if they violate regulations, and the Japanese government does not impose restrictions on ordinary households, which account for about 30% of electricity consumption. Instead, they urge them to save energy by themselves. In addition, **, nursing organizations, etc. are not within the scope of the implementation of power-saving orders.
The reduction of 15% in electricity consumption is based on the electricity consumption of the summer last year. Through comparison with the electricity demand in the same period of last year, Japan has forecasted the electricity supply in Japan this summer. It is estimated that the electricity demand in the Tokyo Electric Power District is 60 million KW, while the electricity demand in the Northeast Electric Power District is 14.8 million KW. The benchmark electricity quantity of the electricity restriction policy. After Tokyo Electric Power provided maximum electric power support to Tohoku Electric Power, the supply capacity in Tokyo Electric Power is expected to be 53.8 million KW (at the end of July), while the supply capacity in the Northeast Electric Power District is 13.7 million KW (at the end of August). Based on this calculation, the necessary power demand restriction rate in the Tokyo Electric Power Management Zone is 10.3%, and the Northeast Power Management Zone is 7.4%. If we add this year's earthquake factors and consider the technical risks of the continuous operation of the original thermal power station, the power demand limit of Tokyo Electric Power and Dongbei Electric will be 15%.
At present, all provincial governments of the Japanese government have formulated a power saving plan in accordance with the “Government Power Saving Basic Principles.†Various companies have also formulated and implemented energy saving plans under the independent action plan of the Japan Federation of Economic Organizations, especially for large enterprises. They have taken the lead in saving energy and most of them have carried out energy-saving plans based on the original 25% reduction. According to the statistics of the Japan Federation of Economic Cooperation and Development, about 418 of about 543 companies and groups will achieve a 25% energy saving target according to the government’s initial request. The number of such companies accounts for about 80% of the large Japanese companies. At the same time, Japan’s ordinary citizens’ families have also carried out various energy-saving activities on their own. According to the electricity usage of the electricity restriction order on the first day (July 1), it has indeed achieved certain results. Compared with the amount of electricity used in the summer last year, Tokyo Electric Power Co., Ltd. cut its electricity consumption by approximately 15%, while the Northeast Power Management District reduced by less than 22%.
The electricity restriction policy adopted this time was the second time since the oil crisis in Japan in the 1970s, and the last time the power saving target was limited was 15%. At that time, Japan used this as an opportunity to develop a large number of energy-saving technologies. This power cut will also enable a number of energy-saving technologies to be used more effectively, and further stimulate new energy-saving technologies.
Diversification of energy sources is difficult to achieve. In the energy import structure of major countries, Japan’s energy import dependency is relatively high. The relevant statistics in 2008 showed that if nuclear power is included, Japan’s energy import dependency is 82%, and nuclear power is 96%. It can be seen that Japan’s energy supply structure is relatively weak compared to other countries. According to a survey conducted by the Japan Resources and Energy Agency in 2009, in Japan’s electricity and energy structure, natural power (wind, solar, geothermal, etc.) provided 1% of electricity, hydropower accounted for 8%, nuclear power accounted for 29%, and thermal power accounted for 62%. %.
From the above two sets of data, we can see that Japan's energy use is facing a series of problems.
The first is the dependence of energy on foreign countries. As we all know, Japan is a country with extremely low energy resources. At present, Japan’s fossil fuels rely on imports by 80%, especially oil, and 90% come from abroad. As Japan’s energy consumption continues to rise, Japan’s energy import will continue to increase. .
The second problem is that energy diversification is difficult to get a good solution. In order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, Japan has been vigorously promoting energy conservation measures and seeking alternative energy sources to achieve energy diversification. However, because of natural conditions such as the distribution of energy, and the constraints of scientific and technological levels and costs for the development of new energy sources, the development of alternative energy sources and the popularity of energy-saving awareness are difficult to keep up with the increase in energy demand. Coupled with the drop in oil prices in recent years, the rising consumption of fossil fuels has led to less incentives to save energy and less attractive alternative energy sources.
The third issue is the emergence of nuclear power plants. There are 14 nuclear power plants in Japan and a total of 54 nuclear power plant units. In 1995, the Japanese government invested 560 billion yen in the construction of the breeder reactor "Wonshu." A sodium leakage accident was sued by local residents. At the end of 2002, many power companies such as Tokyo Electric Power Co., Ltd. had successively heard scandals concerning the hidden dangers of nuclear power plants, the alteration of nuclear power plant inspections, and maintenance records. On March 11 this year, the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami caused a serious nuclear leakage accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. This triggered the worries of Japanese nationals and even the international community in the development of nuclear power. The results of the “Tokyo Shimbun,†published on June 19, also showed that more than 80% of the respondents stated that they should completely abolish 54 units of nuclear power plants in Japan. Of these, 9% of those who supported the abolition of nuclear power advocated “immediately†and 19% supported “one by one after the regular maintenance of nuclear power plantsâ€, while more than half of 54% of respondents stated that “according to the power situation Give buffers, but the ultimate goal is still to "completely scrap." In contrast, only 14% of the respondents believed that Japan should "maintain the status quo." In addition, for the Japanese government’s previous plan to increase the size of nuclear power, that is, to add 14 nuclear power plant units by 2030, 67% of the respondents stated that they strongly oppose it, and 22% believe that at least the increase should be reduced. The total amount is nearly 90%. Only 6% of the new nuclear power plans are still supported.
Under the pretext of a nuclear power crisis, Japan wants to get rid of emission reduction restrictions. Japan imposed a summer power-reduction order because of the severe damage to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant after the earthquake in Japan, the destruction of Units 1 to 4 and the possibility of scrapping Units 5 and 6. The sex is also great. At the same time, based on the consideration of the safety of nuclear power, all nuclear power plants in Japan are in full inspection and are closed during inspections, so there is indeed a certain power gap in Japan. However, from the actual situation, Japan's electricity gap is not very large, the reason is that many large companies have a strong internal power supply capacity, such as the Nippon Steel Corporation in addition to its own power supply to Tokyo Electric Power, in addition From many large enterprises, the target of 25% reduction can still be seen in the self-generating ability of large enterprises. However, this power cut has a greater impact on the average SME. Some SMEs have already voiced opposition to power restrictions. The reason is to force bulk users to limit electricity and encourage nationals to save electricity. There are two layers of meaning behind it.
The first is to emphasize the energy and power crisis in Japan, and to take the opportunity to increase the support rate for the development of nuclear power by Japanese citizens and reduce the development of nuclear power for the future. What is more important is the opportunity to reduce the pressure on the international community to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Japan. At the UN climate conference in Cancún in December 2010, the Japanese negotiators strongly refused to assume the emission reduction targets for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, incurring widespread criticism from other delegates.
On the eve of the Cancun conference, the Japanese industry issued a series of statements explicitly opposing Japan’s continued compliance with the Protocol after the expiration of the first commitment period of the Protocol. Subsequently, during a visit to the United Nations Climate Change Negotiation Conference in Bangkok, Thailand, Hideki Nakagawa, Sub-Minister of the Ministry of the Environment of Japan, said that due to the Fukushima nuclear accident, Japan needs to amend the medium-term emission reduction target of 25%, including the target value and the number of years to be reached. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Yoshino also said that the earthquake affected all aspects of Japan, including the previously set mid- and long-term emission reduction targets. This series of trends caused the attention of Japan. Some media speculated that the Japanese government may want to take advantage of the medium-term goal of 25% emission reduction that the Japanese business community strongly opposes.
In short, the implementation of the power cut order will not only further increase the awareness of power saving already formed by Japanese citizens, but will also promote the further improvement of Japan's energy-saving technologies and energy-saving equipment. More importantly, using this opportunity will also enable the Japanese government and people to reflect on and adjust the future direction of their own energy structure. Japan's future energy trends will be mainly reflected in the following three aspects.
(1) Nuclear power will continue to be developed on the premise of ensuring safety. According to relevant statistics, if one million KW power stations in Japan are to operate for one year, the required fuels are concentrated * 21 tons, natural gas 93 thousand tons, 1.46 million tons of oil and 2.21 million tons of coal. It can be seen that concentration* is the most energy-saving power generation method. In the face of low renewable energy production and the pressure of reducing emissions from the use of one-time energy generation, Japan still cannot rely on nuclear power. According to an internal document issued by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan, which was exposed on May 7th, regarding future energy policies, it will implement emergency safety measures to ensure the power supply of existing nuclear power plants. It also stated that “the highest level of global safety is achieved from 2030 to 2050. The use of nuclear energy remains one of the three pillars of energy policy.
(II) To develop new energy such as wind power and solar energy and increase its proportion. Japan will mobilize all resources to break the technology and cost barriers faced by the actual use of renewable energy, and strive to increase the share of renewable energy in the generation of electricity to 20% in the 1920s. In order to achieve this goal, Japan plans to reduce the cost of solar power generation to 1/3 by the year 2020 and to 1/6 by 2030. The Japanese Ministry of the Environment estimated the potential of Japan's future development of new energy sources in April 2011. As a result of the calculation, Japan’s wind power generation could increase to a maximum of 22% in the future’s electricity supply structure in Japan, and the geothermal energy will increase to 3%, while further reducing the cost of using solar power.
(c) Further improve the utilization of energy. The first is the use of fossil fuels. Japan will use the most advanced technologies to promote the efficient use of fossil fuels and reduce greenhouse gas emissions to international minimum standards. At the same time, to further improve energy efficiency, Japan is the world leader in industrial energy efficiency. The next goal is to improve energy efficiency without compromising the comfort of families and communities.
Japan’s power curtailment policy will continue for more than two months. The Japanese government decided in early April that according to the “Electrical Services Law†promulgating the power cut order, large-scale consumer electricity consumption will be reduced by 25% year-on-year, and electricity saving for small users and household electricity will be 15 % to 20%. With the gradual restoration of the power supply capability of Tokyo Electric Power Company, on May 25th, the Japanese government formally decided to implement a power restriction order for large-scale power users in the power supply areas of Tokyo Electric Power and Northeast Electric Power Company from July 1. Electricity will be adjusted to a 15% reduction on the basis of the peak usage of electricity in summer last year. It is reported that the designated bulk users are those users whose power consumption exceeds 500 kilowatts according to the power supply contract, and the non-weekend hours are from 9am to 8pm. The electricity restriction in the power supply area of ​​Tokyo Electric Power Co., Ltd. was implemented from July 1 to September 22. The power-reduction order in the power supply area of ​​Tohoku Electric Power Co., Ltd. was implemented until September 9. Large-scale power users will face fines if they violate regulations, and the Japanese government does not impose restrictions on ordinary households, which account for about 30% of electricity consumption. Instead, they urge them to save energy by themselves. In addition, **, nursing organizations, etc. are not within the scope of the implementation of power-saving orders.
The reduction of 15% in electricity consumption is based on the electricity consumption of the summer last year. Through comparison with the electricity demand in the same period of last year, Japan has forecasted the electricity supply in Japan this summer. It is estimated that the electricity demand in the Tokyo Electric Power District is 60 million KW, while the electricity demand in the Northeast Electric Power District is 14.8 million KW. The benchmark electricity quantity of the electricity restriction policy. After Tokyo Electric Power provided maximum electric power support to Tohoku Electric Power, the supply capacity in Tokyo Electric Power is expected to be 53.8 million KW (at the end of July), while the supply capacity in the Northeast Electric Power District is 13.7 million KW (at the end of August). Based on this calculation, the necessary power demand restriction rate in the Tokyo Electric Power Management Zone is 10.3%, and the Northeast Power Management Zone is 7.4%. If we add this year's earthquake factors and consider the technical risks of the continuous operation of the original thermal power station, the power demand limit of Tokyo Electric Power and Dongbei Electric will be 15%.
At present, all provincial governments of the Japanese government have formulated a power saving plan in accordance with the “Government Power Saving Basic Principles.†Various companies have also formulated and implemented energy saving plans under the independent action plan of the Japan Federation of Economic Organizations, especially for large enterprises. They have taken the lead in saving energy and most of them have carried out energy-saving plans based on the original 25% reduction. According to the statistics of the Japan Federation of Economic Cooperation and Development, about 418 of about 543 companies and groups will achieve a 25% energy saving target according to the government’s initial request. The number of such companies accounts for about 80% of the large Japanese companies. At the same time, Japan’s ordinary citizens’ families have also carried out various energy-saving activities on their own. According to the electricity usage of the electricity restriction order on the first day (July 1), it has indeed achieved certain results. Compared with the amount of electricity used in the summer last year, Tokyo Electric Power Co., Ltd. cut its electricity consumption by approximately 15%, while the Northeast Power Management District reduced by less than 22%.
The electricity restriction policy adopted this time was the second time since the oil crisis in Japan in the 1970s, and the last time the power saving target was limited was 15%. At that time, Japan used this as an opportunity to develop a large number of energy-saving technologies. This power cut will also enable a number of energy-saving technologies to be used more effectively, and further stimulate new energy-saving technologies.
Diversification of energy sources is difficult to achieve. In the energy import structure of major countries, Japan’s energy import dependency is relatively high. The relevant statistics in 2008 showed that if nuclear power is included, Japan’s energy import dependency is 82%, and nuclear power is 96%. It can be seen that Japan’s energy supply structure is relatively weak compared to other countries. According to a survey conducted by the Japan Resources and Energy Agency in 2009, in Japan’s electricity and energy structure, natural power (wind, solar, geothermal, etc.) provided 1% of electricity, hydropower accounted for 8%, nuclear power accounted for 29%, and thermal power accounted for 62%. %.
From the above two sets of data, we can see that Japan's energy use is facing a series of problems.
The first is the dependence of energy on foreign countries. As we all know, Japan is a country with extremely low energy resources. At present, Japan’s fossil fuels rely on imports by 80%, especially oil, and 90% come from abroad. As Japan’s energy consumption continues to rise, Japan’s energy import will continue to increase. .
The second problem is that energy diversification is difficult to get a good solution. In order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, Japan has been vigorously promoting energy conservation measures and seeking alternative energy sources to achieve energy diversification. However, because of natural conditions such as the distribution of energy, and the constraints of scientific and technological levels and costs for the development of new energy sources, the development of alternative energy sources and the popularity of energy-saving awareness are difficult to keep up with the increase in energy demand. Coupled with the drop in oil prices in recent years, the rising consumption of fossil fuels has led to less incentives to save energy and less attractive alternative energy sources.
The third issue is the emergence of nuclear power plants. There are 14 nuclear power plants in Japan and a total of 54 nuclear power plant units. In 1995, the Japanese government invested 560 billion yen in the construction of the breeder reactor "Wonshu." A sodium leakage accident was sued by local residents. At the end of 2002, many power companies such as Tokyo Electric Power Co., Ltd. had successively heard scandals concerning the hidden dangers of nuclear power plants, the alteration of nuclear power plant inspections, and maintenance records. On March 11 this year, the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami caused a serious nuclear leakage accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. This triggered the worries of Japanese nationals and even the international community in the development of nuclear power. The results of the “Tokyo Shimbun,†published on June 19, also showed that more than 80% of the respondents stated that they should completely abolish 54 units of nuclear power plants in Japan. Of these, 9% of those who supported the abolition of nuclear power advocated “immediately†and 19% supported “one by one after the regular maintenance of nuclear power plantsâ€, while more than half of 54% of respondents stated that “according to the power situation Give buffers, but the ultimate goal is still to "completely scrap." In contrast, only 14% of the respondents believed that Japan should "maintain the status quo." In addition, for the Japanese government’s previous plan to increase the size of nuclear power, that is, to add 14 nuclear power plant units by 2030, 67% of the respondents stated that they strongly oppose it, and 22% believe that at least the increase should be reduced. The total amount is nearly 90%. Only 6% of the new nuclear power plans are still supported.
Under the pretext of a nuclear power crisis, Japan wants to get rid of emission reduction restrictions. Japan imposed a summer power-reduction order because of the severe damage to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant after the earthquake in Japan, the destruction of Units 1 to 4 and the possibility of scrapping Units 5 and 6. The sex is also great. At the same time, based on the consideration of the safety of nuclear power, all nuclear power plants in Japan are in full inspection and are closed during inspections, so there is indeed a certain power gap in Japan. However, from the actual situation, Japan's electricity gap is not very large, the reason is that many large companies have a strong internal power supply capacity, such as the Nippon Steel Corporation in addition to its own power supply to Tokyo Electric Power, in addition From many large enterprises, the target of 25% reduction can still be seen in the self-generating ability of large enterprises. However, this power cut has a greater impact on the average SME. Some SMEs have already voiced opposition to power restrictions. The reason is to force bulk users to limit electricity and encourage nationals to save electricity. There are two layers of meaning behind it.
The first is to emphasize the energy and power crisis in Japan, and to take the opportunity to increase the support rate for the development of nuclear power by Japanese citizens and reduce the development of nuclear power for the future. What is more important is the opportunity to reduce the pressure on the international community to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in Japan. At the UN climate conference in Cancún in December 2010, the Japanese negotiators strongly refused to assume the emission reduction targets for the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, incurring widespread criticism from other delegates.
On the eve of the Cancun conference, the Japanese industry issued a series of statements explicitly opposing Japan’s continued compliance with the Protocol after the expiration of the first commitment period of the Protocol. Subsequently, during a visit to the United Nations Climate Change Negotiation Conference in Bangkok, Thailand, Hideki Nakagawa, Sub-Minister of the Ministry of the Environment of Japan, said that due to the Fukushima nuclear accident, Japan needs to amend the medium-term emission reduction target of 25%, including the target value and the number of years to be reached. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Yoshino also said that the earthquake affected all aspects of Japan, including the previously set mid- and long-term emission reduction targets. This series of trends caused the attention of Japan. Some media speculated that the Japanese government may want to take advantage of the medium-term goal of 25% emission reduction that the Japanese business community strongly opposes.
In short, the implementation of the power cut order will not only further increase the awareness of power saving already formed by Japanese citizens, but will also promote the further improvement of Japan's energy-saving technologies and energy-saving equipment. More importantly, using this opportunity will also enable the Japanese government and people to reflect on and adjust the future direction of their own energy structure. Japan's future energy trends will be mainly reflected in the following three aspects.
(1) Nuclear power will continue to be developed on the premise of ensuring safety. According to relevant statistics, if one million KW power stations in Japan are to operate for one year, the required fuels are concentrated * 21 tons, natural gas 93 thousand tons, 1.46 million tons of oil and 2.21 million tons of coal. It can be seen that concentration* is the most energy-saving power generation method. In the face of low renewable energy production and the pressure of reducing emissions from the use of one-time energy generation, Japan still cannot rely on nuclear power. According to an internal document issued by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan, which was exposed on May 7th, regarding future energy policies, it will implement emergency safety measures to ensure the power supply of existing nuclear power plants. It also stated that “the highest level of global safety is achieved from 2030 to 2050. The use of nuclear energy remains one of the three pillars of energy policy.
(II) To develop new energy such as wind power and solar energy and increase its proportion. Japan will mobilize all resources to break the technology and cost barriers faced by the actual use of renewable energy, and strive to increase the share of renewable energy in the generation of electricity to 20% in the 1920s. In order to achieve this goal, Japan plans to reduce the cost of solar power generation to 1/3 by the year 2020 and to 1/6 by 2030. The Japanese Ministry of the Environment estimated the potential of Japan's future development of new energy sources in April 2011. As a result of the calculation, Japan’s wind power generation could increase to a maximum of 22% in the future’s electricity supply structure in Japan, and the geothermal energy will increase to 3%, while further reducing the cost of using solar power.
(c) Further improve the utilization of energy. The first is the use of fossil fuels. Japan will use the most advanced technologies to promote the efficient use of fossil fuels and reduce greenhouse gas emissions to international minimum standards. At the same time, to further improve energy efficiency, Japan is the world leader in industrial energy efficiency. The next goal is to improve energy efficiency without compromising the comfort of families and communities.
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